저자: TomLee · 외국인
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8월 조정 우려 속에서도 Tom Lee는 단기 대형 반등 가능성을 열어둠 시장 우려 및 델타 변이 영향 - 델타 변이 확산과 여행 취소 등 나쁜 뉴스는 이미 상당 부분 가격에 반영되었다고 봄 - 향후 1주일 내 추가 악재가 나올 수 있으나, 시장이 그 뉴스에 둔감해지는 시점이 바닥이 되고 큰 랠리로 이어질 수 있다고 주장 공포지수(VIX) 및 경기 사이클 - VIX 기간구조가 역전되지 않아 단기 대형 충격을 시장이 가격에 반영하고 있지 않다고 해석 - 중국 경기 둔화로 경기 사이클 정점 우려가 있으나, 가계 유동성, 보복 소비, 기업 설비투자, 자사주 매입이 강해 단기 둔화로 자본 오배분이 일어나는 단계는 아니라고 봄 연준(Fed) 전망 - 연준은 데이터 의존적이며 소비자신뢰 약화 등 연성 데이터가 나빠지면 긴축 결정을 내리기 어려워짐 - 따라서 현재 상황은 연준의 부정적 서프라이즈 가능성을 낮춘다고 판단 포트폴리오 선호 - 선호 섹터는 기술주이며 에너지도 함께 보유 중이라고 언급 - 기술주는 금리가 낮게 유지될 경우 계속 상승할 여지가 있고, 상방 비대칭성이 있다고 봄
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it may be volatile but our next guest isn't ruling out a massive rally within a week tom lee is ahead of research at fun shark global advisors and a cnbc contributor tom good to see you um what do you make of uh i know you've been listening into our conversation what do you make of dan's um you know forecast or thought that we could be setting up for a similar sell-off that we saw last year uh i mean i i understand the rationale i think if we look at sectors that we're leading this year the the sell-off dan's talking about kind of our days taking place and i think in terms of how investors are reacting to the incoming data you know last year it was concerns about back to school and the rising cases and cases were surging plus we had the you know the whole election issue going into the fall i think the market is dealing with a lot of bad news today and the question that investors have to grapple with is how much of what we're seeing especially with delta is looking a little bit in the rear view mirror because you know delta could be peaking soon or a lot of the setbacks and uncertainties that are being created how much of it is transitory versus permanent changes you know example is a lot of our clients today we're talking about canceled trips and they're seeing some of the high frequency data show some of the weakening but that stuff could change as soon as we get some comfort on delta's improving or the benefits of boosters and so i mean i'm in the camp that i think a lot of bad news is baked in but we'll you know i i think in the next week we're going to see more bad news but markets start to not react to that bad news and i think that's what makes a bottom and then of course a big rally hey tom so a big rally from here you have the s p 500 up 17 or so i i guess when i think back to over the last five or six years some of the most uh you know volatile periods and equities have had to do with chinese growth and when you look at some of the data that we've seen just in the last few weeks you could say it's delta or you might say that they came out of their recession quicker than let's say we did maybe there's a scenario where growth doesn't materialize globally the way that a lot of people had expected here and and therefore maybe equity valuations seem a little rich and my point is i'm not trying to scare anybody out of positions or anything like that it's just that if you believe that we're finally going to get that reopening trade wouldn't you like to see a little fear in the market rather than just this complacent grind higher that we've had over the last few months uh yeah i'd agree with you dan fear's always good but if you look at the vix term structure it's showing quite a lot of fear it's not inverting so it's not like the market's trying to price in some big high ball event in the near term and in terms of you know the cycle because i i think you're you are referring to the risk that if china's weakening maybe the cycle is peaking the business cycle but there's still so much pent-up demand you know we know households are really liquid there's going to be revenge corporate capex we know buybacks are strong and companies have really cut their cost structure so they're not going to necessarily trip over their skis if there's a short-term you know bump because mobility is weakening and so i just don't think we're at that point where capital's misallocated i know investors are scared um i mean i don't blame him i mean today you know this morning was a tough session to watch but you know to me that doesn't change that the markets can be really capable of a big rally tom you heard melissa asked nadine about whether it was the fed or the variant that made the most i happen to think the fed still trumps everything else i'm just curious as your thoughts could they potentially say something in the coming weeks to sort of derail this or is have they figured out how to speak to the market uh well i i'd agree you know the fed can have a huge impact either way you know positive or negative but i know they're data dependent and you know i think when the markets start to get soft like this and the soft data that they look at like consumer confidence is weakening i just think it it's harder for them to be decisive in the decision so i'd be in the camp that what's happening now is actually less likely to lead to a fed negative surprise all right top pick still energy i still like tech as well tom good to see you thank you so much yeah thanks for having me tom lee a fun strat penigerian tech or energy oh now now you're going to make me pick i i will go with tech i have a lot of exposure in technology i still think that there's plenty of upside so um i i like them both though mel as you know i was talking about all those options i have in a lot of different uh energy names as well but if you're going to put me and i got to make a pick would i rather i'm going to go i'm going to go with tech i didn't even i didn't even force that no you stealth would you rather him that's not fair down that path um but nadine in terms i mean it's an interesting portfolio to construct to think that you know you're all in on cyclicals and you also like tech well i agree with pete here i'd have to go with tech i think that it while it's owned there's a lot of protection on right now so those are the types of things that if people unwind that protection that can move it higher there's also pretty solid balance sheets and some of the big players obviously a lot of strategic initiatives going on we heard from zuckerberg today obviously it's more of a 10-year plan but i think that there's a lot of exciting developments and if you end up having a variant that you know your second thing versus the interest rates that continues to keep the gdp acceleration kind of at bay and you could see rates stay low and tech continue to grind higher so i think the asymmetry is there in tech you
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