저자: KenMcElroy · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준 의장의 성적을 두고 토론. 연준은 인플레이션을 직접 통제하지 못하고 사후 대응하는 기관이라는 주장. 2020년 저금리가 주택·임대료 인플레를 키웠다는 지적. 워시 후보는 연준 대차대조표 축소와 MBS·국채 매각 구상, 점도표 폐지, 언론 소통 축소를 주장하는 것으로 언급. 트럼프의 금리 인하 오해와 실업통계 수정 문제도 거론.
다듬은 글
Do you think Powell's done a good job? Because I would only think he would care if somebody was on the board if they've done a good job. And you could argue that it's everything's a mess right now, and he did react too late, and he did overcorrect, and he didn't bring rates back down, and everything's just, you know, we had massive inflation, 9%.
So, I mean, if he's not done a good job, then why keep him? So, let me ask you a question back. Do you think Powell has influence over inflation? Yes. I don't. So, I don't think the Fed has. I think all they can do is react. I think when the president goes to war, or, you know, we spend, or the country becomes more and more in debt, or whatever whatever we're doing, you know, with tariffs and all that stuff has nothing to do with the Fed.
And I think the Fed is reactive largely in nature. And so, So, I agree with you on the fact that if it's like energy or something that they can't control, food prices, energy, which is why I asked the question. But what they did at the beginning of 2020 is they dropped rates so low that that's really what spiked all the inflation.
Obviously, the stimmy checks did, too, but their low rates is what why you had such crazy housing inflation, why you had such crazy rent inflation. close the country. The Fed did not issue stimmy checks. They did not do any of that. Yet, they're left with the ramifications of that decision. Like, you know, they did not shut down the economy.
They did not tell landlord or people they could stay home. They did not tell everybody that they needed to wear a mask. They did not tell people that didn't didn't have to pay their mortgage or rent. None of that happened at the Fed. Yet, uh under his watch, he had to deal with all that stuff. And that's why I said, uh if, you know, if I'm if I'm giving Powell a grade, you know, I'm giving him a solid B, right?
Okay, that's nicer than most people I think would give him. that's just how I mean, I again, that's why I asked that question. Do you think that the Fed controls inflation? I do not. there's a lot of there's there's a lot of things that Powell started to do that Warsh wants to reverse. And so, I think one of those things, and this is interesting because this isn't what you would assume, but Kevin Warsh has been talking about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
He doesn't feel the Fed should be buying mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. He feels like the market should do as the market does. Now, we are we they own a lot of them right now. So, obviously, he's not going to offload them all at once because that's going to create, you know, massive distress, but it's in his mind that they should not be doing that, which is very different than what Donald Trump thinks as he just had Fannie and Freddie by a whole bunch of mortgage-backed securities.
So, I I think that, you know, Kevin Warsh is trying to explain how he's different from Trump and how he's this, you know, in line with him. But, I will say that I don't know if this is just a talking point or if he means this because this would be a very different plan than has been going on in the last 20 years.
I I I do want to make a point that when when Trump hired Powell, there was a reason. Or, you know, I should say hired, but you get the point. Appointed. Appointed. When he appointed Powell, there was a reason based on who he was, okay? What happened from 2017, '18, and '19 is there were actually four Fed increases and three Fed decreases.
Oh, so under Trump, everyone has this false illusion that Trump, you know, pushed rates down. Um what happened was the at the tail end is during the pandemic, um the, you know, the decision was made to stimulate the economy and push rates down. As a result of what had happened from the close closure, I guess.
so. so um then that for sure happened under Powell's watch. I think that that kind of experience um that that kind of uh you know, call it those issues that you have to deal with as a Fed chair are and will continue to be invaluable for any committee. Um and so, you know, I I'd like to ask you, why do you why would you give Powell uh a lower grade?
He just has been very late to react, and he's also just he's just keeps looking at data that doesn't align with what's actually happening in the economy. I agree with both those things. Yeah, I I think they're he's definitely disconnected with Main Street, for sure. But, I think most of the Fed chairs are often times in the pocket of Wall Street, right?
Um you know, I know that's a interesting statement, but I do believe that. I don't think that they're in touch with what's really happening at you know, uh at at the Main Street level. And for sure, we can show that they reacted late. As as rates as as inflation started creeping up in early 2022, as a result of the hangover from the pandemic and all the stimmy money, um they could have done something earlier and quicker.
But, what what would that really have done uh honestly? So, so we would move the needle 6 months or a year, but at the end of the day, we're still But, we don't know that because you don't you know, you don't know unless it happened. You know, different things could have happened with the economy if it was done quicker.
The segment three comes into he wants to get rid of the dot plot, and he does not want the Fed communicating with the media. So, when Powell started, his big thing that he introduced is he meets with the media and provides a statement after every single Fed meeting. War says that's off the table, that's not going to happen.
And he's also encouraging members in the committee to stop with the dot plot. Like, he wants the Fed to kind of be very private and to not have a lot of outer communication unless he deems necessary, basically. I don't Yeah, I I'm kind of mixed on that one. I I I think the media is so off like anyway.
Like like you know, like like when they're unemployment numbers come out, they report those, but then as you guys know, well, you should know, 30 days later there's a revision, 30 days after that there's a revision. Um and they were off in 2025 by 818,000 jobs. The media, right? So I I don't know that the media is a good credible way to get anything out there.
But personally, I just I think I just think he's trying to gain credibility and it's not helping to let the world know your every single step in order to gain credibility. It's sometimes better to work behind the scenes, I think is what he's thinking to try to keep it more internal and not like, "Oh, this person always votes this way and this person votes that way." It should all just be
It'll be It'll move It'll move from from uh you know, standard media announcements to leaks. Exactly. But But it will be different because, you know, when Powell makes these announcements, the stock market moves one way or the other. Everything moves based on these announcements. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's You're right.
The these hearings and stuff. It'll be interesting to see um how how I mean, he's a chair. He can run to your point a scenario, but one person's point of view does not necessarily mean that you get your point of view. Um you you know, it has to be That's the whole point of a committee.
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