원문 보기
the earnings dropped after our largest trending trade and the fireworks burst there were even viewing parties for nvidia's quarterly results despite the impact on the stock the company is doing quite well revenues have more than doubled sales would increase by 80% if there were a quival point as they say which is I suppose less than the more than 100% growth that were achieving however they discussed resolving certain supply issues with their next generation semicond cond upor chip in a fairly upbeat manner naturally the most important question is what to do with the stock over the past year it has been a high flyer lately it has been stabilizing ciau of bull will allow us to put it Tua although he technically has a neutral position on the stock I call him a bear come on in Dan Ives Gil Lua is a senior software Analyst at da Davidson and he is an analyst at wedbush representing the Bulls and let's start with Dan as the stock is under pressure what caught your attention during the quarter and how would you characterize the response indeed Under Pressure I believe that this stock will really rise during the next few days this quarter was a masterpiece you see in light of what we observed in terms of demand they ought to print the press release and place it in the elb bark was worse than bu because of the Blackwell delays and the anxieties and had to believe that prediction for the upcoming years only only sets the standard for The Godfather of AI to continue to overd deliver and under promise I believe that the AI Revolution is just getting started in one year the market will be worth $4 trillion with a $4 trillion market capitalization Gil I'll challenge you because from what I remember your concerns are almost never related to what Nvidia is doing now it's more focus on the upcoming 3 to five quarters yes exactly the biggest clients of Nvidia have stated that they plan to purchase as many gpus as possible this year and may even expand their purchases the following year however they must eventually see a return on their investment they must provide a return on that investment to their clients that isn't occurring at all there is a lot of gamesmanship going on amongst these firms at the moment Google Amazon Microsoft and meta are attempting to ensure that they do not have too much data center capacity they are referring to it as overinvestment and when you do that you will eventually have to wind down your investment which is what these corporations plan to do and that might occur as early as the following year according to current Street projections Nvidia will generate $200 billion in sales by 2026 Microsoft's margins will be reduced by Two Three or maybe four percentage points in order for that to occur according to Dan and myself who cover Microsoft the company's margins are dropping this year and its shareholders won't put up with with it for very long your answer Dan look I believe Gil is referring to something that is very similar to customers the use cases must be shown to them the ROI must be shown to them furthermore there is no question about the demand curve's appearance since this is more than just Nvidia I believe the next phase which we have discussed is the development of a fourth Industrial Revolution it concerns derivative plays that are second third and fourth when it comes to earning the Godfathers remarks from last night are essentially the first and second innings in a nine ining game AI Capital expenditures will amount to trillions of dollars just to counter that Trend we still see it as 9:00 p.m.
in the AI party that lasts till 4:00 a.m. I'm not declaring the end though because Jill has been invited to the party it's 9:00 p.m. there's glass on the Dance Floor I'm not suggesting that the Music Stops at one point so you don't agree that the component will be finished in 3 to 5 quarters look I think it will be 4:00 a.m.
at some time and there may be after parties but as long as the return on investment is present and not only for the hyperscalers but also for governments and businesses I think this will surpass Nvidia in my opinion this is the Cornerstone of the I bull market that will emerge in the upcoming years you mentioned in your note that in the tech industry a dollar spent on Nvidia chip multiplies by 8 to 10 describe how that operates Gil and look discust Microsoft the main point is that purchasing Nvidia CPU is just the beginning which software is it which hyperscale is it what is the application how is the infrastructure for a brief while it was encouraging to hear from the Bears last night but they have been in hibernation mode for a few years so that's the multiplier across Tech additionally they occasionally come out you know when I don't see them I worry about it however I believe the trend will continue Gil as you can see can is now stating that in addition to this multiplier nvidia's market capitalization will increase by another trillion dollars what are your thoughts I want to start by saying thank you for inviting me to the party Dan Dan has emerged as the spokesperson for this AI Revolution you know no better man could have been affected in my opinion the majority of generative AI will be implemented on Android or Apple devices that is not on Nvidia chips in the coming year thus the celebration will undoubtedly continue artificial intelligence is still in its infancy simply put Nvidia will no longer have sole control over the hardware that AI is running on we believe that companies like apple Google Amazon and Microsoft will begin to make these kinds of deductions and even conduct a large portion of the training on their own processors additionally Nvidia will have a significant portion of the industry but not the whole Market as it already does Dan I want you to realize that the other hyperscalers that are currently clients will soon start to compete with you because you know it's the same thing I'm waiting for that to happen with apple and Qualcomm so has this circumstance ever come up does it pose a threat or is it a genuine one well it appears that they are requesting an increasing amount of share additionally I believe that all of the hypers scalers will attempt to acquire more of that element much like Microsoft would pursue more of the apps because this is the largest Trend in Tech investment that we have seen since the beginning of the internet it is nearly going to be a co-op petition additionally businesses won't just hand that out see that's why I believe this is a larger AI party as it develops when Gil attends the Gathering I will save my purple sports jacket for him okay Gil what are your thoughts do you have any plans to wear the purple sports jacket soon I'm hoping so I hope the celebration goes on since our clients are Invidia shareholders I sincerely hope so we currently favor apple and Amazon but I hope the stock continues to rise let's discuss that then I believe that both of you agree that there is no doubting that this revolution is happening and that it will change the game however there may be differences in how and where you play that game Let's back off a bit although you mentioned that Nvidia might rise in the coming coming days Dan I'm curious if there's simply buyer fatigue exhaustion and being over indexed in these companies who doesn't still own Nvidia after all where does the additional buyer come from at earnings viewing parties does the fact that there appears to be interest in other areas of the market as rate reduction approach make the rally vulnerable I mean I put agree many people have not actually participated but I believe there are still a lot of people that are I want to call it underweight in high school Vidia is LeBron James the point is that this will continue to happen and I believe that investors will eventually be increasingly convinced that this is not just hype compared to what we're seeing in Tech this is the most empowered spending that our generation has ever witnessed you know to see where the land is isn't it the purpose for the second journey to Asia in the past month I mean you won't find that in a New York City office building's 10K or spreadsheets from an iPhone standpoint the iPhone 16 started at 8,084 million and now it's over 90 million this is encouraging based on what we think Supply chains are telling us about the next AI driven super cycle with the iPhone 16 and I continue to think that Apple will have an understated demand cycle however you just brought her demand you know demand is still increasing rather than decreasing additionally I believe that parts of the US China Tech Wars tariffs are concerning an i
Comments 0