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영상 결론: 중앙은행 유동성과 재정 부양으로 시장이 떠받쳐져 있어 큰 폭의 폭락·디플레이션 위험이 크다는 경고. 시장 상황: 2020.06.24 다우 700포인트 이상 하락, 주요 지수 2% 이상 하락, 유가 배럴당 약 38달러. 실업자 수는 누적 약 4,800만(실제 5,500만 이상 주장). 짐 로저스 인용: 11월 미국 대선 전까지 부양이 이어지나 미국 주식(및 일본 주식) 버블 붕괴 가능성 언급. 본인은 타이밍을 잘 못 맞춘다고 함. 연금·401k: 근로자 3명 중 1명이 401k 보유, 대부분 주식 연동. 시장 하락 시 소비심리 위축과 고용 악화로 이어질 것이라는 주장. 정책 전망: 소비가 미국 경제의 70%이므로 추가 부양금 지급과 세금 납부 기한 연장 가능성 언급. 주택 시장은 압류 유예·임대료 미납 등으로 착시 상태라는 주장. 실업수당: 주당 600달러 추가 실업급여가 7월 말 종료되면 수백만 명이 소득 절벽에 직면한다는 CNBC 기사 인용. 추가 부양이 나올 것으로 전망. 마이클 하워드 마크스 인용: 연준이 주식을 떠받치는 한 방어적·고품질 자산 선호, 3월 폭락 때가 공격적 매수 적기였다고 언급. 리스크 시나리오: 신용 경색, 은행 시스템 오류·해킹, 전력망 장애 등 '금융 리셋' 가능성을 제기하나 예측이 아니라고 명시. 결론: 극단적 폭락 대비를 강조하며 실업자 6,000~7,000만 명까지 증가할 수 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
hey bulls and bears it is Wednesday June 24th 2020 our lead story is gonna be Jim Rogers calling for a coming blow up in the markets we're gonna talk about what he means by the market blowing up when it's possibly gonna happen and it's gonna sound kind of familiar to a lot of things we've been talking about on this channel but it's interesting to see a famed investor like Jim Rogers coming out and saying pretty much the same things we've been talking about but real quick before we get into that just a monster sell-off today in the markets Dow Jones down over 700 points all of the major indexes down over 2% we also saw crude oil drop down to about $38 and I believe tomorrow there's going to be another unemployment number coming out and it's likely going to be another million-plus unemployment and that's going to bring the total closer to 48 million since the shutdown in mid-march now again I always remind people that is the cherry-pick number the real numbers well over 55 million now newly unemployed and add that on top of all the unemployed people that were already jobless before coming into this downturn now also late around in this report we're going to talk about the likely coming disaster when these extra unemployment benefits end and we're gonna look at some analysis on that as well now on this channel we talk about why the markets are being propped up like they are and what the end game would be might be what is the goal well we talked about the important event happening this year in 2020 in November so most of you probably are in tune with what's happening and just a quick excerpt out of Jim Rogers interview here quote the main thing that's going on in the world is the central banks all over the world are printing huge amounts of money and governments are borrowing and spending huge amounts of money a Jim continues quote first you must remember that in America there is an election in November and in Washington they're going to do everything they can do to get re-elected that is what they do they do not care about us they do not care about our children they care about getting elected so until November anyway there's going to continue in the US but other places will probably follow to the endgame while often in history after a long rise in the market it turns into a blow of bubble and I think they meant to say blow-off bubble continuing especially when there's a huge amount of money that suddenly comes in and I'm not very good at timing the market but I suspect we may have a blow up at least in the American stock market and maybe the Japanese stock market because of all of this madness that's going on unquote so at first glance you may say well the stock market big deal if it blows up I'm not invested well even if you're not directly even if you're not directly invested in the stock market the stock market has a major impact on company hiring decisions also pensions pensions will absolutely blow up once the stock market takes a dive there's already pension cuts happening right now also one in three workers has a 401k retirement account and most of those accounts are tied to the stock market also I should add most 401 k's do have a money market option that's giving people a very low yield right now so i think a lot of people are still gambling with their retirement accounts in the stock market so when people see their 401ks drop along with the stock market that's going to have a major impact on consumer confidence consumer spending and we know when consumers stop spending there goes most of the jobs here in the US all of this market propping is just a way to keep this entire system from imploding and some people would argue that it has imploded anytime you see this level of intervention into the markets via the central banks it is a sign that the system has already failed now many people won't feel it yet because that's the purpose of these the quiddity injections of the trillion-dollar stimulus packages in the record-breaking accumulation of debt via the US government in the central bank but what's going to happen after the incentive to keep this entire system from collapsing comes to an end what's going to happen after member you let me know there's many people out there saying that they can't hold it together until November I think they can because again they have unlimited tools and they've admitted it most people know by now there's no limit on how much money they can create how much they can inject into different areas of the economy banks can now lend unlimited amounts of money without having to worry about any sort of reserve requirement again that was waived back in March I think most of you on this channel already know that now what they're really gonna have to do because this again is a consumer-based economy they're going to have to help the consumer so what's that gonna mean there's gonna have to be more stimulus checks given out to the consumer they're gonna have to push back the tax deadline again let's talk about that next research report here out of Bloomberg Medicine says the tax due date may be extended again while we've been predicting that on this channel we think they're gonna push it back until past November for obvious reasons also other famed investors and money managers are out there asking the same question here's a market watch article will the Fed spend trillions of dollars every year forever to support the markets asks billionaire Howard Marks and he continues he asked the question how do people feel about buying securities that are only high because the Fed is buying okay mr.
marks continued quote right now it's time to take a cautious approach and buy defensive and quality securities rather than be too aggressive mid-march he's talking about the market drop was the time for aggressiveness that was the time to be aggressive and now is the time to be cautious unquote so you have to agree with them stocks are only a good investment if there's another person to come in and buy those stocks from you at a higher price later on and that's why I say here if you feel like the Fed is going to continue to prop up this market forever then buy stocks because then we're going to go right into never ending inflation now I don't recommend that because I myself and I both shouldn't say recommend I don't give a vestment advice I myself think there's going to be a massive round of deflation after Nova remember the boom-and-bust cycles the ups and the downs is where the real moneys made and that's also how they transfer a lot of wealth from these novice investors up to the upper 10% in the top-tier multibillion-dollar investors right so I think a lot of you already know the routine get all the suckers to jump in at the peak of the bubble and now it seems like a never-ending bubble because the timing on this thing again there's an important date happening in November they have to keep it propped up so be prepared for could be a crash could be a decline could be a plunge either way I think there's going to be massive deflation in the stock market in the housing market and once they stop injecting liquidity into the banks or what if the banks just decide to pull back on the lending to create the bust just by freezing up credit right we're already seeing a little bit of that happening some banks are being a little more strict on lending and mortgage guidelines have tightened with some banks one of the biggest things in the housing market is we have the foreclosure moratoriums or the hold on foreclosures and we also see a lot of people are not having to pay their rents right so it's giving the illusion that things are not actually falling apart but when you look at the number of defaults and late loan payments we know that this whole economy is just one ticking time bomb and now a lot of people even well-known investors are questioning the exact same things that we said you should be looking at for a long time here in this channel recent CNBC article right here millions of Americans are gonna fall off an income cliff on the extra $600 an unemployment benefits runs out next month right so again a reminder at the end of July these extra unemployment benefits run out and all these people that were relying on that extra income on that extra government check the stimulus well they're gonna need some sort of life raft to save them and I think it's going to be another round of stimulus and you notice the talks getting more and more about the next round of stimulus we haven't had the press come out there recently saying yes there's going to be another round of stimulus so could be that they're going to try to time it right around the end of this extra unemployment benefit running out we'll have to see but you know and I know they're gonna try to keep this propped up none of this is a surprise to any of you that have been watching this channel alright bulls and bears I'm not trying to spread fear I just want you to be prepared again I like to say it I'll say it again maybe I'll say it every episode prepare for the worst what's the worst going to be it's going to be an absolute devastating market collapse and I don't think we've seen anything as far as unemployment numbers yet I think it get absolutely skyrocket to 60 million 70 million after this whole prop up scheme is done this entire system this entire economy is based on nothing but debt and credit remember when credit freezes up money velocity drops and you're gonna see even bigger job losses even bigger than what we're seeing right now a lot of businesses aren't going to survive this shutdown and if they pull back on the stimulus to the consumers which is 70 percent of the US economy as consumers then where our business is gonna get their money from or the business is going to get money from the government forever well no there's going to be some sort of event call it a financial reset possibly finally that will expose this entire rigged system but again one of my fears is that they're gonna be floating out in other events to put the blame on I think it could be some sort of banking system hack some sort of a grid failure I think it could be some sort of banking system glitch where no one can access their money and they'll put the blame on that maybe we'll see flash crashes in the stock market they'll blame it on some sort of glitch or some sort of outside forces that have compromised the systems if you know what I mean there's always going to be a blame maybe it'll be a power grid failure where the nation goes dark and they can blame the crash on that we'll have to see but I say be prepared I'm not predicting any of these things to happen I'm just saying look out for these types of events because this is the type of environment where things happen if you know what I mean thanks for watching this report everybody like to hear from you down in comments hope you come back for more doses of economic reality bye for now you
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