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연준·유럽중앙은행의 금리인하 속에 소비자 신용부채 부담이 커지고 있어 경기 둔화와 디플레이션 위험이 있다고 주장. 임대료 재상승 및 주택 충격 우려(Bloomberg 인용), 이민 감소와 자연재해로 주택 공급 감소, UPS 실적 쇼크 및 Amazon 물량 축소, 마이클 버리의 부동산 매도 등을 근거로 제시. 본인은 코인을 대량 매도 중이며 주식 추가매수는 하지 않는다고 밝힘.
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all right bulls and bears we're back with another dose of economic reality as always a lot of news to get caught up on today i' spent two almost two hours today combined getting different information different sources different data here to bring to you so I appreciate you being here let's go ahead and get right into it the economic Engineers the powers that be the market manipulators uh the money creators they are bent on keeping the cost living elevated because if they don't then you're going to have something called deflation when prices start coming down and housing even the stock market uh you see big big trouble then expand into other parts of the economy and you see a lot of job losses now we know the job loss numbers over the past many years but especially over the past few years have been heavily heavily manipulated by government creating jobs well we're seeing the opposite happen now we're seeing government get rid of jobs and in fact they're telling the federal workers that a lot of them have to go back to the office that's a way of a soft way of laying people off because once people work at home uh very seldom do they want to go back drive into the office and have that commute and all that so we're going to see how that plays out and is that going to be very negative on the jobs numbers and is it going to really cause a drop in incomes we're talking we always talk about how wages are they keeping up with inflation well this could be very deflationary for wages unfortunately um for some people now we'll see how this goes today we're going to talk about housing Bloomberg has a warning they say prepare for a shock to a housing affordability we're going to talk about that we're going to talk about the recent announcement out of ups and Amazon uh cost of living crisis will continue folks as far as we can see let's go ahead and get into the news though right now by going over to Europe European Central Bank cut rates another rate cut here even though inflation hasn't come down compared to just a few years ago just like inflation took off in 2020 here in the US uh they are cutting rates over there folks we're seeing this Global phenomenon of the need for lower rates and growth is starting to become very very sketchy to say the least with all these different ways these different Shenanigans they're using to make the economy look like it's growing now in the US the number one thing is Banks loaning out money and not being afraid if consumers actually default on their loans on their payments because certain Banks especially the big ones are guaranteed to never fail so there you have that but what's happening over in Europe is very very similar right you have people borrowing money just to get by and with inflation they're spending more sometimes on non-discretionary items some on things that they must have but either way the cost C ER up so it's making economic growth look better because higher cost equals more spending and spending is chocked up as growth folks so that's another way they're kind of juicing the numbers for lack of a better term now Bloomberg just came out with a warning about housing and here's the article it's behind a pay wall sorry it's behind a pay wall get ready for another housing shock housing affordability shock folks so basically they're going to say they are saying what's going to happen is rents are going to start going back up if you've been following this channel we see rents have actually dropped when we're way down from the peak in mid 2022 and it's a little bit of a relief point but even with the lower rents guess what evictions are still increasing so it's not enough help the the slight rent drops the the cost and rent slightly going down is not helping people as far as evictions it may help some people but the number of evictions is still continuing to rise and I was able to get the gist of what Bloomberg put out in that article by listening to the interview that the article mentioned and I've got some notes here from that interview basically rent prices are going to actually start Rising again they're saying that housing starts has dramatically slowed down and also the exiting what's the word I should use the exporting of all the not so legal people here in the US the exporting of those people uh I guess we are exporting some stuff here in the US it's actually people uh funny maybe not funny depending on your view um but with the drop in people willing to do the building and work on these Home Building sites uh the cost of Labor is going to go up and that's going to bring up the cost of housing that's what they're saying folks and I've mentioned that here before I said what's going to happen when all these low-wage workers not all of them but a lot of them a lot of the low-wage workers are no longer available right it's you're going to have to have people demanding more money just like all these people that you see going on strike demanding more money because their wages aren't keeping up with the cost of living so now it's going to get even worse and you're going to have to pay people more to build these homes to do a lot of this uh hard work uh type of outdoor labor and especially construction and I think it's going to lead home prices to either stay where they're at or maybe even go higher right then you've got the other part of it some people say the decrease in population with all the exporting of people that we doing uh the decrease in the population is going to be deflationary that it's going to open up a lot more housing units right so it's very interesting uh to try to sort all this stuff out and figure out where everything is going to go uh honestly I I'll admit it it's so crazy right now with everything happening things that we've never seen happen so I I don't know which way this thing is going to go you have to look at the money creation that can pump so much money into it as well uh they could cause more inflation rescue programs they could put a pause on evictions and foreclosures again as soon as the next Crisis unfolds so with all the ways to manipulate this and with everything happening right now I don't think anybody knows exactly what's going to happen all you can do is just prepare for the worst hope for the best uh try to stack try to get prepared try to invest where you can uh speaking of investing I'm actually somebody asked me if I'm loading up on on stocks or crypto no I'm not loading up on either one I'm actually unloading a lot of those especially cryptos unloading crypto we just saw a six-fold increase in some of the cryptos and uh I am shaving off a lot of my Holdings there so for those of you looking to make money or follow what I'm doing don't don't just follow me do your own do you as far as investing goes because everybody has their own budget everybody has their own risk tolerance everybody has their own time that they can set aside to to do these trades I'm unloading more than I'm loading that's for sure at this time I still see a lot of big uh threats on the horizon we're going to get that into that more here in just a few minutes but first let's move on to this and this is the congestion toll in New York City more more specifically Manhattan the commute time is actually down so the congestion pricing or the toll or the fee has made the commute time drop weekday a.m.
travel time on the Holland Tunnel is down 48% MTA estimates a 5% drop in weekday traffic below 60th Street so it is working less people are going into the City and we'll have to see how this plays out because it did did cause big problems outside the perimeter where people were trying to park outside the the the Zone where you get the fee and it caused a lot of people that own homes there or even rented homes not to be able to park near their own house some of them had to walk several blocks can you imagine owning or even renting a house and you have to park several blocks away um I experienced a little bit of that when I lived in Los Angeles and bounced around for couple different apartments there for the short time I was in Los Angeles and uh it wasn't fun carrying groceries like two or three blocks and then hoping nothing happened to your car and then street sweeper days I think it was Tuesday when I was in LA you had to move the car or the car would get towed if you were there or get a ticket if you were there during Sweet street sweeping days and uh it was kind of a nightmare when I was there I wouldn't want to live in LA unless I own my own place and had plenty of parking um that's one of the drawbacks of La not to mention now the crazy fires uh but these fires folks they could happen anywhere they could W wildfires can break out even here in San Diego unfortunately we're dry down here we finally got some rain in the last couple days which is nice nice to see the rain so hopefully that'll take away some of the fire risk it's very strange to have these fires happening in December like we saw and in January normally this time of year you have to worry more about floods than you do fires in San Diego but I I said this was going to happen the the environment the atmosphere the weather is going to get even crazier and crazier basically um we're polluting we're polluting the atmosphere folks and uh that's what it boils down to it's just going to get more insane more crazy destruction of Supply look at all the tens of thousands of homes wiped out 2024 early 2025 between the Hurricanes um the of course the fires the floods everything that we saw just in the past 12 months it's really knocked down a lot of inventory and with housing starts on the decline you can kind of see where Bloomberg was pointing to get ready for a shock to housing affordability and again they're saying that home prices and even rents are going to start going back up even faster than they were before so we'll see how that plays out nobody knows exactly what's going to happen so uh I mean let me kn if you know please let me know down in the comments I'm all ears and you know I I read your comments quite often even though I don't have time to respond to of course all of them or most of them uh sometimes I'll give it thumbs up or something like that um I appreciate your comments I do read the comments here when I get time now let's move on to the credit card debt situation Forbes came out with this what's happening to my screen here Forbes came out with this this week credit card news the numbers show that consumers are stressed as we talked about in the last few reports for those of you that didn't watch the last two or three reports we highlighted some of the details happening right now with credit card cards the situation is more people than ever before are not able to pay off their card in full right and this should be no shock or no surprise we see the all-time high debt levels that people are in right now the dramatic rise in interest rates we're at or near an all-time high in the average credit card interest rate so just add one and one together folks and you see what's going to happen here this is not going to be a a good thing for these consumers and we're going to see how it plays out though from Forbes Rising Auto repossessions and growing rate of minimum credit card payments offer signs consumers may be getting stretched you think so maybe uh these figures complicate the notion that consumers are relatively healthy so there you go I mean every time we see the talking heads out there the Central Bank Talking Heads they see the consumer strong the consumer spending money like never before even though they're spending more because everything costs more um they're saying that's because the consumer are strong because they're spending more uh yeah some people are spending more on silly things but a lot of people are spending more just on Necessities on food on rent on insurance on utilities utilities are going crazy out here in California um these figures complicate the notion that consumers are relatively healthy a warning sign for the broader economy right so some of these Forbes and and Bloomberg they're starting to kind of sound like the things we've been talking about here for the last few years when all these people were talking about there's a bubble uh there's going to be a crash folks there's bigger threats of inflation I think versus the cost of living coming down unfortunately I would love the cost of living to come down not just for myself but for everybody especially the younger people in this country they're graduating from high school or college they go to college and they're loaded up on debt for the most part and the cost of living they're not able to pay off their student loans why do you think we've been talking about student loan forgiveness for the past several years it's because people cannot pay off this debt it is impossible right and I should also add to that not everybody there are stories where people worked hard they paid off their debt they kept their cost of living low maybe they lived with their parents for a few extra years and paid off their debt and those are the people that are going to be really upset if they see everybody else that didn't live at home that didn't watch what they spent get their debt forgiven right you see what what the plus and the minus is here you have the people that work hired pay off their debt versus the people that are just sitting back waiting for some sort of forgiveness or rescue but that's kind of been the way the whole economy works right you have the do nothings and then you have the do a lot ofss what's the word I'm looking for the do nothings versus the do aots is that a word do a lotters uh it is a word now the do aots are tired of paying for the do nothings and we have a lot of do nothings unfortunately but it seems like sometimes the harder you work the more unfair it is you get into a higher tax bracket they Uncle Sam's going to come in and take more uh anyways I'll get more into that here in a different video but first let's move on to this and this is Michael bur he is the guy that The Big Short movie was based on because he shorted the housing market just at the right time before the housing market came down 2009 10 11 uh big investor Michael bur dumps real estate for downside protection he's dumping a lot of his real estate holdings and so what is he see that others don't instead of inflation sounds like he's expecting some sort of deflationary situation to pop up again I don't think anybody knows but it's interesting what Michael B is doing we kind of keep an eye on what he's doing and report on that if we see big moves kind of like Warren Buffett went to a lot of cash uh last year uh I believe it was a record amount of cash and people pointed out that he's waiting for something to drop right will these bubbles ever meet the pin that's what nobody knows right Warren Buffett was way early on going to cash so he didn't know right before uh a collapse otherwise he'd be still holding right now CU we haven't seen any sort of collapse right but we are seeing risks rise in my opinion uh so definitely continue to keep your eyes open and keep your eyes on this channel for all the latest news the latest updates the economic figures and data right UPS their shares tanked 14% after week guidance and they plan to decouple from doing so many Amazon deliveries basically they're saying that Amazon wants a big discount on package deliveries and the profit wasn't that much for UPS uh shares closed down 14% after the issued week guidance cutting deliveries for Amazon its largest customer the shipping giant said its fourth quarter earnings report it reached an agreement in principle with this largest customer to lower its volume by more than 50% starting in 2026 they reconfig in their us Network and launching multi-year efficiency initiatives that it expects will result in a savings of approximately $1 billion the CEO said on a call with investors UPS the largest customer is not the company's most profitable customer so there you go UPS in order to give you low prices they want to get special rates from carriers including UPS I'm sure the post office as well uh they want to get a basically a volume discount kind of like you buy more you buy in bulk uh UPS uh or rather Amazon wants a volume discount out of ups and they're cutting back on those packages and speaking of Amazon they are hiking their price on their music streaming app uh I was a user of Spotify for a while I stopped paying for it because I could get all my music for free from YouTube instead um and I thought about going over to Amazon I tried them for like a month because they had like a 30-day tried out for 30 days at no cost uh but they're hiking their rates for their streaming app so everywhere you look folks they're raising prices and you have to wonder if the consumer is maxed out or a lot of people are stressed out or maxed out on their credit cards uh how are they still able to raise these prices it seems like prices would have to come down when people are so loaded up on credit card debt and when they get to the maxed out pointer are they getting maxed out or the bank's just going to continue to increase these lines of credit so you never see a pullback in spending if that's the case then um you're going to see a big default surge but the problem is a lot of the banks have just been writing off the debt and are they trying to collect it that's the question are they sending out collection letters are they trying to collect it we saw a big write off of debt in the fourth quarter and some people wondered why some of the debt had dropped well when we looked into it it's because Banks had written wrote off the debt after a few months of trying to collect it and uh it's going to be an interesting watch to see what happens with the debt with the banks how will the banks react to the higher defaults and will companies like Amazon like Netflix continue to be able to raise their prices when people are just racking up on on more debt it's it's a game that has to change big time in One Direction or another but we just don't know exactly when or how but be ready for anything folks I'm going to wrap this one up folks keep stacking as always bye for now peace
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