저자: 미상 · 외국인
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페이스북·테슬라·아마존·구글·넷플릭스·트위터·프라이스라인 등 미국 기술주 차트 분석 영상으로, 각 종목의 추세선·이평선·거래량을 근거로 단기 매매 셋업을 제시한다. 페이스북: 상승 추세 채널 상단 이탈 후 165~170달러 부근 돌파/이탈에 따라 양방향 단기 플레이를 제시하며 방향은 예측하지 않음. 테슬라: 303~304달러 지지와 280달러 다음 지지를 주목하며, 추세선 이탈 시 하락 가능성을 언급했으나 방향은 확정하지 않음. 아마존: 2016년 6월부터 이어진 약 2년 추세선 이탈과 대량 음봉 거래량을 근거로 하락 가능성이 더 크다고 판단하며 반등 시 숏 기회로 봄. 구글: 지지선에서 얕은 반등만 나타나 에너지 축적 중이며 하락 가능성이 있다고 봄. 다만 강한 확신은 아님. 프라이스라인: 추세선 이탈과 50일선 하향 교차, 1,793달러 부근 진입 시 1,785~1,780 손절, 1,905 목표로 리스크 대비 보상이 유리하다는 단기 반등 시나리오 제시. 넷플릭스: 섬 반전 패턴을 언급하며 지지 이탈 시 150달러 또는 추세선 부근(158~166달러)에서 숏 가능성을 제시. 트위터: 실적 발표 후 갭다운과 이후 반등 시 거래량 약세를 근거로 1,750달러 부근 숏 진입, 1,470 부근 갭 메우기 목표를 제시하며 손익비가 유리하다고 주장. 전반적으로 확정적 방향 예측보다는 조건부 셋업과 손익비 중심의 단기 매매 전략을 강조하며, 프리미엄 회원 가입을 홍보함.
다듬은 글
few analysis that we're going ing to I want to focus on Facebook here to start and what I want you to notice here is this little upper rail here channel one you can see how Facebook has really respected this angle here on its way up so just remember this is not bearish okay this is just an angle that it's been respecting you can see each time it Peaks it hits this obviously you know it hits this and then it goes sideways hits it again as it heads higher same thing here and we hit it again here and a little bit lower and then hit it again here so I want to show you a setup here that proves to be a nice nice mover if you play it correctly so what this is is a little it's getting a little extended what happens is when stocks get extended they extend over that upper rail like Facebook did here you can see Facebook being capped by this angle here the entire time here will gap up over it and as you can see haven't really gone anywhere since then and traded sideways now we're looking for a throwback back into this channel okay so what you want to look for is a break of about 165 45 all right break of that and we're going to at least hit this 50-day moving average you know again this is for the shorter term momentum traders here not saying this is the top or anything like that for Facebook just a nice little setup here than you can look for if we get some kind of a gap down or something on Monday that's going to be a nice play on the short side conversely if we close over these recent highs right here over this trendline you can look for a breakout and that is about 170 so if we get a close over 170 that's going to be a nice play for an upside move so you got two choices here all right two choices you know I don't want to make any predictions about which one is going to happen but you can play either direction depending on which way it breaks the next we're going to take a look at is a nice one here in its Tesla and Tesla I want to point out a couple things this main back here in March of this year you can see several touches here see it bounced there right there here again and we're really just squeezing right here so bulls you want to see a break over several rejections there and we're just squeezing right between these two main levels bears you want to see this break back under this trendline we break them on the trendline first support is at 304 level and then we've got 280 it's going to be that next nice level right there for for Tesla so pay attention to these two main lines that are pointed out on tehsil now Amazon this is one that I do have a bias on for sure I do think that Amazon is going to had lower I've got several reasons we've got a major trend line break that started in the beginning of June of 2016 so this is almost a two-year trend line here started back here you can see several bounces here at the end of 2016 here's a bounce March of this year here's a bounce June July right here the end of July and then here we are breaking below it another thing that I want to point out too is this huge bearish volume look at the volume that's been coming out of Amazon right here bearish volume on this candle right here we gapped lower on earnings right here the following day a lot of volume here's another candle right here bearish candle you can see a lot of all you came out of this stock and in the last two days the most two recent days on Amazon again with heavy volume right here and we'll right at the support as well so I do think that Amazon is going to head lower can we get a balance from this level we can definitely get a balance from this level but overall if we do get bounces I do think they're shorting opportunities as I've just seen this too many times too much volume has come out of the stock and this pattern and trend line break is just too significant to ignore so I do think Amazon is going to head lower and those are the reasons why Google here you know not quite as bearish as as Amazon but you know if you look at a the volume here you can see right here this day right here heavy volume see the following day as we headed lower heavy volume right here these several days right here you can see heavy volume right here those are red days right here several days of big red volume right here you can see again right here red volume big down day with some big volume right there again we're also holding nd we're holding against this support level you really want to see it bounce off of the support level right away kind of like how we did here boom really nice bounce okay but right here we came in here shallow bounce shallow bounce right here and we're just holding up against this support level so what does that tell you that tells you that it's building up energy for that break lower okay you want to see it bounce like this alright but right here we're hanging out low and tight against this level so I do think Google is gonna have lower next one is Priceline and again these are all high beta techniques all right these stocks move the market so that's why it's very key to pay attention to them so Priceline right here go back all the way to the beginning of 2016 started this trend here's a the beginning of it got a bounce there got it bounce there got a bounce here here and here we are gapping down huge on volume look at this volume for two days in a row heavy red volume and the reason I want to go back to this trend line the reason I point out how many touches that trend line has is because I want to show you that this stock price line has really respected this angle okay and so when it's respecting that angle respect respect okay and then now what's changed okay something changed here we didn't respect that angle any longer okay so it's really respecting that angle you know anyone can just draw lines on the chart you know there's a line oh there's a line okay but it doesn't mean anything if the stock isn't respecting that angle but clearly you can see that price line is respecting this angle respecting this trend line and all of a sudden something changed so you want to pay attention when it stops respecting that trend line okay so broken trend line broke this 50-day moving average also have the 20-day simple moving average which is the blue line crossing below the 50-day moving average and we're right here at this pretty significant support level so you can see it bounced here here just recently right there and here we are we closed pretty much right at this level so definitely a good risk reward to go along here for a short term pop so if you just for example get long right now it's at 1793 so you get along in 1793 you can say your stop really really tight maybe at 1785 1780 to something like that so maybe that's you know a ten dollar loss for if it does pop I think you can come back up to about 1905 so that's about 120 dollar gained versus a ten dollar lost it's a very good risk reward ratio okay now I can't tell you whether it's going to balance here or not but I can say with more certainty that and you think that longer-term price line is eventually going to regular is gonna bounce here and then catch back up to all these levels up here if so you can go along here and then I think this is a great place to initiate a short against this 50 de cebú moving average as well as the retest of the gap down here as well as the retest of the trendline from the undersid you know I pointed out here on Netflix this is a Island reversal pattern again I'm not huge on patterns and their exact technical readings or anything like that but this is definitely an island reversal pattern so what makes an island reversal pattern well you have a gap up big gap up and then you have some trading here and then you have a gap down alright so obviously there were gap downs here you know so on and so forth there's a big gap to gap down all the way down here and it's remained unfilled so there's that gap here's that gap so this is the island alright when you have a big bullish move like this you want it to sustain you want it to just trade sideways you want to just if we consolidate lower you want to do it slowly in sideways you don't wanna have a big gap down like this which is what we got so it's a sign of weakness so here we are at the support level looks like you know again like I mentioned before you know with support levels you want to see them bounce and you want to see him bounce pretty pretty quickly and you don't want them to hang out just hanging out right against the support level forever okay why isn't it bouncing well to me it looks like it's building up energy for a move lower alright so if and when we do break this support which it looks like we're going to the next main support is down here at about 150 all right 150 is gonna be that main support let's see if we can get a trim line here for reference don't think so okay so here's a pretty nice trim line here actually on Netflix all right so started here in July of 2016 and see you got a bounce here there and then here we are about right off of it right there so that target here rather than this 150 like I mentioned before would be that this trend line here for Netflix all right would be that target because it's so far it's respecting this angle still we're still above this trend line so you have to respect it it's getting short so 166 down to maybe 158 would be that short trade on Netflix if we get a nice little move lower below that support the next wanna look at is Twitter and Twitter you can see here huge gap down on earnings right there huge huge gap down upper right here we made this nice little base right here and a break higher all right a basement and break higher that's what you want to see at support so that's what it did on Twitter but it's coming up to the 50-day moving average right here the red line as well as the high firm this gap down do you think that's a low risk short entry up against there about 1750 as well as the 50-day moving average if we break much higher than that I'm not gonna like it for a short any longer so that's a low risk short I think there's a gap down here that wants to get filled around 1470 around 1470 is that gap you know we didn't see we saw a big move lower here on big volume you can see that right here and on these move hi this move higher you couldn't see this is really low volume okay we move higher look at the volume it's puny alright see the volume over here that's ok volume it's decent volume removed higher that's what you want so here's that high volume here you can see we moved higher obviously we moved lower after that but it's sustained and move higher from you know 1850 all the way up to you know almost $21 so I was a big move based off of this volume right here and you can see huge volume selling on earnings and then on this move higher where's the volume you want to see volume so we didn't get that so I do think the best play here on Twitter is short here is it going to work out for sure no definitely not we have no idea but I think the risk versus reward is substantially in your favor if you consider getting short at 1750 and maybe your stop is a little bit higher maybe at about 1790 it's about a 40 cent loss versus you know if you go down here for the gap fill you know that's about what $3 gain so 40 cent loss versus a $3 gain and I'll take that trade any day of the week so that's what you want to focus on a good risk reward on plays that you think have a good chance of working out just because youth you know set a good risk war it doesn't mean they're you know all your trades could be losers but you want to have good risk reward Plus trades that have a higher probability of working out and that's how you build wealth in the market something from this you can take something home from it if you liked this video and you're interested in signing for the Premium Membership you can do so here and once you do so you're going to like the analysis well it's nothing compared 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