저자: StockBookie · 외국인
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결론: 영상 전반은 ULTA·DG·NVDA·SWKS·COST·HUM 등 급등 종목이 과열(스트레치 차트)이라 단기 조정 또는 하락을 예상하는 숏 관점이다. ULTA: 일봉·주봉 기준 저항 이탈 후 263·260 지지 이탈 시 238, 궁극적으로 200 부근까지 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 시장(SPY, IWM, QQQ)이 하락하면 같이 밀릴 것으로 봤고, 장후 단기 매매로 약 7달러 수익을 냈다고 밝혔다. DG: 59에서 99 부근까지 급등 후 급락한 패턴을 언급하며 지지 73~88 이탈 시 갭 메움(70~45 부근)을 예상했고, 시장이 크게 빠지면 64달러까지 열어둔다고 했다. 월간 기준 1~5개월 상승분을 하루에 지운 점을 리스크로 강조했다. NVDA: 숏 관점을 제시했고, 31~39 구간 조정 후 33.88 방향, 50 부근 및 40~37 지지를 주목했다. 넷플릭스 등 FANG 열풍과 CNBC 과열 보도를 상승 요인으로 지목했다. SWKS: 약 112 부근 사상 최고가 부근에서 숏을 잡았다가 일부 익절했다는 과거 사례를 언급했다. 현재는 과열된 고점 패턴으로 보고 재하락 가능성을 말했다. COST: 과열 후 급락 사례(플래시 크래시 등)를 들며 이중 고점 패턴을 지적, 하락 경계 입장이다. HUM: 급등 후 인수 소식 이후 하락한 사례를 들며 현재 월간 스트레치 상태를 경계했다. 콜옵션 매도 전략도 언급했다. 기타 종목(3M, Realty Income 등)도 사례로 들며 고점 과열 주의를 반복했다. 전망 기간은 대부분 수 주~수 개월 단기 조정 관점이며, 시장 전반 하락 시 동반 하락 리스크를 강조했다. 대부분 발언은 과거 사례 설명이고 목표가 중심이다. 방송 특성상 'CNBC 과열' 비판이 반복된다. 출연자 전망은 단기 하락 경계이며 장기 방향은 명확하지 않다.
다듬은 글
Ulta and compare it to Dollar General and Nvidia and skyworks so Ulta daily chart home base would be 18121 eventually this will keep curling higher but I think Ulta can eventually get to this 50 ma wow look at that oh it did that's right it did break above that I think it we're going to get down to about the 200 era if we start selling on a weekly basis and we close below these low pivots right here around 263 260 I think we're on to at least go to 238 then ultimately get to the 200 number and then possibly a little bit lower like I said on the monthly to 18221 this will curl up tomorrow it will follow price when this thing comes in this will slow down but when charts get stretched like this these these these stocks will come in this is a monthly stretched chart play that we do all the time takes a little longer to play out as a swing trade but they will come in we did scalp this one today and we picked up some good coin but that was an In-N-Out Take the Money and Run and makes you know and uh on to the next one weekly is stretched daily daily wasn't bad though he had a nice uptrend but you know what the trended your friend until the end we get below this 266 area which we're we're hovering right now at 265 2541 I see it going through through at we get below the we Gap below this one tomorrow morning I think we can at least go to 260 and then possibly if the market start to dump 25548 this is going to be a market trade as well if this is a weak stock and the Spy the iwm the Q start dumping they're all coming in let's go to Dollar General DG and tell me if this looks familiar remember remember here remember look at this chart Up Up Up and Away went from 59 to what was it 99688 and then collapse does this does this look familiar up up up up and away and it's going to come in this this one has a mind of its own it's a light volume stock as well but let me tell you this one starts to come in it's going to fall but let's go back to Dollar General real quick anyone in this one you're going to have some support at 7388 if that cracks you're definitely going to fill this gap down in this area 7045 but Al timately well this one already hit the 20 ma so this it has to bounce here if this thing doesn't start bouncing we're definitely going to go this and if the Spy starsa dump we're definitely going to 64 bucks so be careful with these outside red bars this is ugly selling it wiped out one two three four five months of gains in one day just be careful with stocks like this it should have never have been up that high any of these stocks to be quite honest with you let's look at Nvidia this is the next one if you want to short this one short it you might have to hold it for a little while but look at TH this is a monster I don't that replace it with Netflix with the Fang oh my gosh that that's what makes that's what's making this thing go higher it's the CNB side CNBC hype it's the hype guys turn off CNBC turn off Bloomberg just follow the Futures at right before you go to bed and say thanks guys see you in the morning this is just stocks do not move in 90° angles this is unhealthy home basee on this one 3139 eventually it's coming in I'm thinking 33.88 but you know we're going to have to see how this comes down but 50 will be a big area this little pivot right in here will be 5573 but I think boom boom boom we got the 618 down in here around 4390 and if that cracks we're going lower and wherever this curls in but right in here around 3738 good support as well think there a little pivot yeah there you go around 40 bucks that was the pivot too So eventually it will come in these just take a little time look at skyworks this is when we shorted almost at the all-time high I was around2 look at this one same I can't even make this stuff up people look as this thing was taken off you know what you know what CNBC was doing when it hit 100 they they were hyping this thing and it probably had earnings went up and that that's when I think it had earnings and then we shorted at 112 the all time high was like 11250 or 113 came in we covered weight we took I think about 10% on it and it just kept going but look came right back to this that's what these things do they're High Flyers there's a bunch of them out there uh let's see we did Costco at one point Costco who who shorts Costco but look stretch chart gets up here everyone's upgrading it the talking heads are screaming about it you got to get it up here it's great comes right back in and then we had the flash crash I mean look at that one that was epic then look get stretched again coming back in this isn't that good big of a stretch job but let me tell you double top this thing's coming back in for landing again good uptrend here but again their trend is your friend until the end this thing starts coming back in it's going to be in trouble oh look at that nice reversal look at that it took out all these gains in one day this is Costco I know I'm jumping around getting excited people I love this stuff 3M we even shorted this one on an extend extended play look at this get stretched up here we were shorting right up in here boom right back down I you know we could go over chart over chart I think uh reality Inc oh gosh look at this one real this is one we're short too I mean how can you not short and this one has a big upper trend line night pretty nice symmetry but come on you know everyone's CNBC oh oh I don't even know what it is reality income Corporation oh you got to get in hurry up it's going you're going to miss it then you get an up then you get an analyst who upgrades this up I I want to work for one of these play and that you're upgrading stuff at alltime Highs are are you nuts it's just so stupid look at this nice monthly bar we're starting to sell we close down in here on a monthly basis it's on let's stick H Fibonacci in this one so your first stop 65 if that starts to crack you're going to have some resistance up in here but ultimately I'm thinking 55 bucks 56 bucks around this around this 20 ma again the 20 ma let's look at the daily daily look at this I mean it comes in chops around inside bar they try to break it up probably had some news or some you know whatever whatever there're telling people oh we're upgrading this thing at the highs it's going to be great we think it's going to 82 no they upgraded it so their buddy at Goldman Sachs can dump in everyone's face and then when they're done done dumping there's no buyers and then it just slips we're below the Mas here and this thing's going to go but again we're looking at the monthly stretched there's a couple other ones too that were you oh uh human we played that one look at this stret job and I think I think we played it here we took the money it came crashing down because this was already stretch and then they had some news of a buyou you know let's give them the news today so we can all write some uh write some calls up here and let them fade for seven months you know and make cash we'll write calls December January we'll just let them fade again stretched where did it come back to 20 ma ah I'm getting off my head's popping off right now people anyways guys I love this stuff I love love reading charts if you know how to read these things trading is easy scalping swings whatever don't listen to the hype just listen to the charts I mean come on another we're in an inside bar right here too if this thing closes below this on a monthly basis and I think they have some buyout rumors or something as well this thing's going downtown first stop is going to be 130 then if the markets are dumping I don't know if we're getting down in here but let's let's go back let's see I think there's some good support probably here ah let me tell you it's got to be let's put a fib in here real quick before we go yeah 38 so it's holding the 382 that thing cracks this thing going to 121 130 area especially this you got a nice bearish pattern boom all right guys enough excitement for today back to Ulta had a great scalp after hours took it for about seven bucks on the last half stretch chart if you're long in Ulta be careful again thanks for watching my videos John stock bookie.com God bless see you on the charts
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