저자: DarrenGreen · 외국인
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이 영상의 결론: 피터 린치의 기업 분류법(성장주·저성장주·경기순환주·자산주·턴어라운드)을 이해하고, 기업마다 다른 기준으로 질문해야 한다는 교육 콘텐츠다. 진행자는 최근 주식 시장이 나빴고 본인도 큰 손실을 봤다고 언급한다. 시장이 경영진을 신뢰하지 않으면 주가가 약해진다는 교훈을 덧붙인다. 피터 린치는 1977~1990년 마젤란 펀드를 운용하며 연평균 29.2% 수익률을 기록한 전설적 투자자로 소개된다. '아는 것에 투자하라', '텐배거' 같은 개념을 제시했다. 핵심 분류는 다섯 가지다. 성장주는 빠르게 성장하지만 재무구조가 약하고 미래 성장 지속성 예측이 어렵다. 저성장주는 은행처럼 초기 성장이 끝나 배당과 수익률이 중요하다. 경기순환주는 광산, 철강 등으로 타이밍이 중요하고 주기가 수년~수십 년이다. 자산주는 브랜드나 유형·무형자산이 많은 기업이다(코카콜라, 웨스트팜스, 텔스트라 예시). 턴어라운드는 부진하던 기업이 회복되는 경우로, 엘더스 사례가 언급된다. 기업이 여러 범주에 걸치거나 시간에 따라 범주가 바뀔 수 있으니 이를 파악해야 한다. 같은 범주 기업끼리 비교해야 한다는 조언이 핵심이다. 진행자는 린치의 저서와 유튜브 영상을 추천한다. 워런 버핏의 '현명한 투자자'보다 린치 책이 입문자에게 읽기 쉽다고 평가한다. 대상 자산별 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 특정 종목(삼성전자, 엔비디아 등)에 대한 1~3개월 전망도 등장하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
um I don't know I don't know is that one of your biggest wishes yeah um I don't know I don't know is that one of your biggest wishes yeah hey get a guys well it ended up a pretty tough week on the market I must admit um I was going okay right up to Friday when um I bought some big big now don't look at them please don't look I had a terrible day and uh Lessons Learned Market doesn't like it if they don't trust the management and uh I think that's the case with this company management is not fully trusted but anyway um that sort of put a damper on my on my week and overall Market was obviously down a fair bit so it was an interesting week but that is not what I am going to talk about today I am going to talk about the American investor Peter Lynch and specifically what I like about Peter Lynch is how he breaks down companies into certain uh categories so that when he looks at a business he doesn't treat all businesses the same he he looks at them with a different sets of glasses on um because what you don't do is um apply the same criteria to all businesses CU all businesses are at different levels of their development and a bit like as a parent you don't apply the same rules to to say a toddler as you would a teenager and it's the same with a business you just have to identify what sort of business you are looking out and then apply that certain criteria uh to that business so that's what we're going to look at today okay okay so who is Peter Lynch firstly okay so straight from Wikipedia Peter Lynch is an American investor mutual fund manager and philanthropist as the manager of the melan fund at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990 lynched averaged a 29.2% annual return uh he has also co-author the number of books and papers on investing and coin the number of well-known mans of modern individual individual ual investing strategies such as invest in what you know and 10 bagger okay so Peter Lynch is a legend of the American investing scene during the 80s um at which time he was better than Warren Buffett probably not as famous as Warren Buffett because Buffett has done it for such a long period of time where uh um pet Lynch was more you know that that decade of the 80s where he just outperformed the market and um yeah just a 30% annual return uh is is huge to do that consistently over a 30-year period that'll uh make you quite wealthy okay so now as I said um when you are looking at a business what Peter Lynch would do is he would quickly identify at what stage of development that business was at and then once he knew that he could ask the right questions you know he could look at the balance sheet of the business and obviously if it's a a startup or what he called the fast grower he's he's got to be asking different questions because that balance sheet is going to look very different to a business that might be a slow grower or a asset play or a cyclical okay so if you don't identify what business you're looking at you don't know what questions to ask okay so the five I've already given them away but the five uh categories that Peter Lynch had are the fast grower uh the slow grower the cyclicals the asset plays and the turnarounds okay so the fast Growers I mean these are probably the ones that are the most fun to try and identify but they're also the hardest um when they're initially um growing fast it's it's hard to uh try and predict the future whether that growth will continue but they are the most fun a company like wise Tech at the moment which is really turning it on um and after topay another one at the moment they just a couple who are growing really fast small businesses that have uh that have increased their revenues so quickly over a short period of time uh their examples of fast Growers uh so when you're looking at those you got to ask certain questions at ear early stage of development their balance sheet will not look as strong as as a slow grower but it doesn't need to look at strong because the growth is so quick that they can quickly improve that balance sheet if things go right so the second one being the slow Growers um I guess you can put the the banks into that category uh the the initial um surge in their growth is gone um and probably will never be back uh for for things like the banks but um of course there's still good Investments the returns uh the dividends those sorts of things are generally higher on these sorts of companies so a whole different set of questions needs to be asked you will buy these uh companies at different stages of your own uh investing lifestyle so you need to identify uh what is a slow grower now the cyclicals of course the mining shares uh go in there your bhps your Ros they can be great fun to play with at the right time and they can be disaster if you're in at the wrong time cuz these Cycles can take decades to play out or many years at least so you wouldn't want to time these uh these shares wrong so if you're looking at a cyclical you got to know you're looking at a cyclical and identify when is a good and bad time to be in these types of companies the fourth one the asset plays now these are the ones that um have great Brands so maybe a lot of maybe a lot of physical assets maybe a lot of intangible assets a company like Coca-Cola probably the greatest brand in the world um you can look West Farmers with their coals and their Bunnings they have these um really hard to value in tangible assets but they are assets none nonetheless um and um you can probably put Telstra in there as well although you know companies like telra can fit into a couple couple of different uh categories and that's true of a lot of companies uh they they may be in more than one category and they may change from one category to another and uh you got to identify that as well uh the last one being the turnarounds now they are always good fun to try and identify recently Elders has been a massive turnaround story you could see it taking place like the Titanic they trying to turn this ship around and they seem to have done a wonderful job uh with that particular company going gang busters over the last year or so um now these are also these are a bit like the fast Growers they're fun to try and identify um especially because everyone seems to hate these companies and it wasn't long ago everyone hated the elders um because the company was running poorly because of the live sheep exports and live cattle exports that they were involved in so they had a lot of uh people downplaying um the company and they've managed to turn it around um not just the numbers but also in the minds of people uh so these can be fantastic businesses if you identify them at the right time uh turnarounds so that's uh five categories there's probably more uh that's just the ones Peter Lynch um identified and what I'm saying is you can come up with your own categories you know there may be 10 different categories that that you can come up for yourself but the point being that you need to know uh what category your business is in and you need to identify that fairly quickly when you're looking at a business so you can ask the right questions and uh and identify um what the answer should be and compare it to other companies in that in that same category so you are comparing apples with apples and not trying to compare a fast grower to a slow grower or a cyclical okay guys so um I think this is a really important uh information and probably I should have done this video yks ago because i' I've talked about um your researching companies but I haven't actually um spoken about um the different criteria you have to set so this is what this video is about today have a think about it get on to YouTube and watch a few of Peter Lynch's um YouTube videos it's really easy to listen to he's got a fantastically slow sort of draw voice that um I find really easy to listen to and I I prefer him is probably one of my favorite investors of all time and he's also written some good books um can't think of the names off top of my head but I'm sure if you Google p Lynch books um there I think he's got two or three and I've read couple of them and they're really good good reads a lot easier to to read and say the intelligent investor that Warren Buffett SS by that's pretty laborious with Peter lynches are a lot easier um especially if you're a beginning okay guys that is it for to day um again I hope you've uh had an okay week if you haven't um there's always next week and uh there's always next year next decade so uh one bad week I shouldn't uh ruin it forever no worries I'll talk to you again next week
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