저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 거품 상태이며 경기침체와 증시·달러 약세가 올 가능성이 크지만, 현재는 거짓 낙관이 시장을 떠받치고 있다. 시장 현황: 고용보고서는 예상치를 약간 밑돌았고, U6 실업률은 8.3%에서 7.9%로 낮아졌다. 다만 경제적 이유의 시간제 근로자는 약 37만 명 늘어 480만 명이 됐다. 기업 실적과 M&A: 서비스업 지수는 12년 만의 최고치이며, S&P500 기업의 81%가 실적을 발표했고 매출 66%, EPS 70%가 예상을 웃돌았다. 퀄컴은 브로드컴의 인수 제안 보도로 급등했고, 진행자는 M&A 열풍이 이어질 것이라 봤다. 밸류에이션: S&P500 선행 PER은 18배로 5년 평균 15배를 웃돌지만 대폭락 수준은 아니다. 다만 Schiff는 과거 대폭락 직전에 해당하는 과도한 밸류에이션과 낮은 변동성(VIX) 기반 안일함을 경고했다. Schiff의 전망: 고용 악화(노동참여율 62.7%, 실질임금 정체)를 이유로 경기침체가 올 것이며, 증시와 달러에 큰 문제가 될 것이라 봤다. 원유는 2년 신고가를 기록했고 원자재 강세의 시작일 수 있다고 봤다. 장기적으로 신흥국 투자를 선호하며, 신흥국 증시는 올해 미국보다 높은 성과를 내고 있다고 했다. 리스크: 지금의 낙관론이 허위일 경우 경기침체 후 증시 급락이 올 수 있다. 시기는 1년 뒤일 수도 있다고 했다. 출연자 전망: 평균 투자자는 여전히 시장에 들어오지 않았고, 전문 투자자들 사이에서 비이성적 과열이 보인다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
hundred Gnostic surging two all-time highs driven by a combination of earnings news and merger news the session began benign enough after that October jobs report came inches below consensus we did see a sharp drop decline in participation the real unemployment rate the u6 edged down at 7.9 percent from eight point three percent that's huge in part because folks working part-time for economic reasons quantum almost three hundred and seventy thousand now we've got four point eight million of them and by the way this metric for the u6 the record low is six point eight percent back in October at two thousand we also got the IOM report on the service economy that came in at its highest level in 12 years and midway through the session Qualcomm began to surge on reports out of The Wall Street Journal that Broadcom was preparing a bit perhaps around $70 I think that would be a real lowball number but it does underscore the lot of names out there in play we're gonna see a lot more merger mania and then of course its earnings we can't forget about that Apple's big beat last night investors now okay with chasing names as long as they're providing strong financial guidance by the way this earning season dustur has been pretty impressive according to fact said 81% of S&P 500 names they've reported 66 percent of beat on sales 70 percent of being on earnings per share right now your Ford p/e is 18 yes well above the five-year average was slightly above 15 nowhere near levels generally associated with major market crashes still though heading into the weekend many are crediting that maybe there's too much hysteria stocks of soaring valuations are out sighs this is just a complacency and now merger mania here to discuss with me perma bull I'm sorry Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter it's been too long how you doing I'm good how are you look fantastic you look tanned rested like the most interesting man in the world but what about this market how you feeling about it well look I think it's a bubble doesn't mean it can't get any bigger but you know you mentioned the jobs market today you know this is a continuation of the same weak employment trends that put Trump in the White House almost a million people left the labor force in October 3rd biggest exit it ever we have a new record for the number of Americans not in the labor force labor force participation dropped to sixty two point seven and then look at real hourly earnings actually went down they had to round it up to get it to zero so you have I think a third of the jobs created a third were waiters and bartenders and most of those are part-time jobs so this is not a strong economy I like what I'm seeing though when I see when I read these business reports when I read these earnings reports when I see durable goods or business investments coming on so there does seem to be a disconnect with the official BLS report but everything else all the other evidence out there whether you consider it sauteed or a hard data points in economy where the Wills of Commerce are moving maybe not to especially if you want them to move but they're certainly moving in the right direction well I think there's a lot of optimism unfortunately I think it's false optimism I think that had a Hillary Clinton one I think we'd already be in a recession and I think the reason that we're not is because people are convinced that maybe things are gonna get better that we're gonna cut taxes get rid of regulations we're gonna have a lot of economic growth but I think people are overlooking an enormous problem that it's actually getting worse and I think once this false confidence wears off and and people start being a little bit more realistic I think we're still headed to recession maybe it's gonna happen a year later but this is gonna be a big problem for the stock market it's gonna be a problem for the dollar meanwhile look at commodities oil hit a new high today new two-year high I think that's the beginning of a trend all right so speaking of being realistic though realistically if someone was bearish over the last nine years or so they missed out on a huge opportunity to make a whole lot of money how this how does someone who's anxious about this market still reconcile the the need to make money in a market that is going up yeah well I mean I've got a lot of money in emerging markets and they're actually outperforming the US market this year so the US market is not the only market that's going up now I will concede that I would have been better off had I invested in US stocks in 2013 14 and 15 those were years where the US did a lot better than the markets that I'm in but since the beginning of last year we've been able to beat the US stock market but I think that we're early on in the bull markets and some of these foreign markets again as I said commodities I think are just beginning new bull markets before I let you go give me the room yellows / red flag that the average investor should be looking for though that maybe this time it ends it look well I think if you get the amount of complacency relative to the overvaluation stocks have really never been this expensive and people have never been this sure that they're not going to go down in what metric well if you look at like the Cape for evaluations but then adjusted by the VIX and look at the fact that people are not concerned at all and believe me the US economy today has bigger problems that it had in 2007 before the financial crisis that people aren't this not arresting on zubrin's out there people aren't going in bars and watching stock on TV you know in other words the average person out there a lot of them still not even in this mark well the average person is broke I mean partly part time bartending that you know you can't really get into the stock market but I say there is a lot of irrational exuberance among professional investors people that are better managing money for a living I mean there
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