저자: MikeSantoli·SaratSethi · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 브리지워터가 S&P 500 등 글로벌 주가지수 하락에 베팅하는 풋옵션으로 약 10억 달러 규모 포지션을 잡았다는 WSJ 보도를 다룬다. 출연자들은 이 보도가 맥락이 부족하다고 지적하며, 풋옵션이 저렴해진 시점에 헤지 목적으로 일부 매수한 것일 수 있어 전체 전략이나 시장 하락을 확신하는 신호로 보기 어렵다고 평가한다. 3월 슈퍼화요일 등 대선 관련 불확실성에 대한 헤지 수요가 일부 몰려 있다는 해석도 나온다. 미중 무역 갈등은 지겨워지고 있으며, 시장은 대선 결과와 연말 관세 연기 가능성 등 명확한 신호를 기다리는 중이라는 진단이다. 경기는 GDP 1.5~2% 수준으로 주식은 괜찮지만 불확실성 프리미엄이 있고, 채권 밸류는 낮다고 본다. 내년 초 시장 상승을 위해서는 기업 이익 증가와 경기 재가속이 확인되어야 하며, 그렇지 않으면 멀티플 축소가 올 수 있다는 점을 강조한다. 기업들은 현금이 많아 설비투자(capex) 여력이 있고, 배당수익률이 국채 10년물보다 높아 시장 하방을 지지한다고 평가한다. 사회자 발언은 제외했으며, 출연자 중 Sarat Sethi는 미국 시장 중립~약세 관점, 전반적으로 시장을 완전 투자 상태로 유지하며 일부 종목 현금 비중을 조절한다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
let's get to the markets with all the major averages tracking toward their first negative week in at least a month this morning The Wall Street Journal reports that Ray Dalio is hedge fund Bridgewater is using put options to bet more than a billion dollars that global markets will fall by March sources tell the journals Bridgewater bearish bet is currently one of the largest against the markets in that it'll pay off if the S&P 500 the Euro stocks 50 or both see it see a decline join us now how to talk more about the markets Sarat setting managing partner at Douglas C Lane & Associates and a CNBC contributor and CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli I was reminded of a couple of things Mike and that was Soros is bearish bets over the years with S&P puts it never worked out he lost on every one of them and then another guy who who loved the deal inputs named Buffett who didn't buy puts yeah he sold billions of dollars where puts in made standard so much to his return based on that just when you sell puts you're just betting that the markets gonna continue to rise so we seem to you know say how high every time Dahle is on the way up every time Dalio makes a move I don't know I don't know what them I mean the first thing to say is that the report kind of lacks context you don't know where this position fits within the constellation of all the other things that the firm is doing it's not a bet the firm trade on the market going down and out right way so I think that you have to have to point it but I do think it reflects some sort of general activity among big institutions saying puts you're cheap right now we might as well lock some in it's been a big up year and there is actually if you look at some if you can look at sort of the slope of of hedging activity going out several months there is this welling up of concern that's concentrated around early March which is Super Tuesday which is when somehow people think that's when election outcomes are going to be relevant for the market so I that reflects that activity but it doesn't mean it tells you the market's going down or for the fat for that matter that he's going to be wrong in the markets going up yeah I mean when puts get really cheap obviously there's a reason sentiment wise and sentiment dictates a lot of a lot of things it's been a calm market we're at new highs that probably should be cheap I mean he's playing the odds right every 18 months you get a 10% correction on average on average whatever right so sometimes it happens and for all those who've missed this 20 plus percent rally especially the hedge funds that are trying to say well we've missed most of this so how do we get back how do we Charlie say we're you know charging you 2% I mean there's something we've got to do so let's bet against the market I don't know when he's gonna be right yeah he'll be right at some point but the market you said hey as yeah you followed Bridgewater I mean you know and he has more his hands are directly involved with with some funds more than others right and some have done well some of they've been dismissive all right well there's been there's the but there's the classic bond fund right the all whether they all whether which one has been no weather is the weather is the mammoth-sized fungus right which over 20 years has a great record which one is like a couple of them that he was more involved with have-nots he's more involved with them more or less it's more you can find some really poor performers they're very model driven right it's not as if it's like cowboy say it's not that redownload wakes up one morning and says I don't want to buy Apple right that's never happening that's not even part of the then he doesn't act on his recession calls that we hype whenever he makes him in the last few years we've we've typed a lot of those different calls none of which is right I don't think that that those calls per se don't reflect well I think that we and I'd actually put more on us than I can to hyping me we take sometimes ya know that's what that's what happens with how are we doing it again today you also have a go to bed yeah bonds have you really gotten hurt by thinking that yields are gonna stay low around the world and there's like a lot of this macro very few the big bond guys stayed long everything Mike's explanation is perfect though with the nuance of the idea that puts are cheap this isn't a bet the firm and you don't know what else the firm is doing they balance the risk on the other side and by the way you want that you almost want people thinking just around the corner there's something we have we'll worry about that's not new thinking over the last either its behavioral finance one I want if we didn't have it then we'd be off the races and then you'd be really worried about sentiment right so you haven't as we've gone dude new levels on the SP have you decided to raise some cash or no you know I raise cash on on specific companies that I think overvalued you you do have sectors as stocks within the market but I'm still bullish I'm still invested fully I think the parts of the market that are still cheap the financials that are still cheap trading below book you know value or at Book value I think some of the texts are extended I think oils getting very cheap here so there's opportunity here within the market but if you're fully invested I think you stay to your objectives and you kind of you know you don't have to be on the higher end you kind of statement would you say fully invested that means for everything you sell you plow it back into something else always a certain amount of cash that you know I'm mid-range so if somebody's objective is 60 to 75 albeit close to 65 to 70% I'm not gonna be at the higher end at this point I think the markets kind of given us that opportunity already but if I do have cash I will deploy it I'm not just gonna sit on the side completely I think they are opportunities do you think to market either one of you that is getting desensitized to China I'm getting bored with it and I'm looking for the next thing to cause even surprised the futures are higher this morning after what they what President Xi said yesterday right but I mean sooner or later we're just gonna be uh I think what's the next big is the election the next big leaving within chai I think the market needs something decisive one way or the other before it reacts to it at this point because the premise right now is we've kind of de-escalated to a certain degree we have in for closing the possibility of you know pushing off the tariffs in December so until we get out of that band of probabilities the markets probably gonna move what are we gonna be talking about after the first of the year that like the recession did we stop talking about that I think it's like well I think it's good recession I think elections are gonna be front and center for a while you do elections are everything well I think kinda who's going to be on the Democratic side and that's probably why you're seeing all this mark stuff as you mentioned but you know it's always the question of what we don't know that causes the markets to go up or down and I if you take on today's data what we have you've got a pretty good market that's you know a GDP of one-and-a-half to two percent and stocks can do well but it's always that uncertainty as the the premium for stocks at this point and bonds at 1.7 there's really not a lot of value in the bond market and we're gonna have to test this premise that the markets are based on right now which is that we're gonna get a reacceleration so in the next few months you really got to see the data come around to the markets view that we've bottomed and we're off to better numbers next year okay I think you after the first of the year we've refocused to don't wait well I think earnings have to go up next year and if they don't go up you're going to get a market with the multiple compression coming back down when we know whether they're going up we should know by the beginning of that yeah I think this tower of thing is huge for a lot of companies with capex at least where we when we talk to companies they're kind of sitting on the sidelines great balance sheets so that's providing some bottom to the market you know you're getting dividends above the your ten-year so that's providing some support to the market so it's a bit so we were showing dahlias new market wage that's a billion dollars stocks will fall it's possible they have a married put to a long position to what's the longer than that basis what's a long position eighty billion so he's got a bit you know how much do they managing how much is all together all together it's a big number yeah 5550 and how much equity in equities that's like a 30 or 50 billion dollar position so a billion don't know why we I don't know that's like a married put isn't it that's one thing it's signaling a could do you don't have much leverage we just don't know what he's doing on the other side of the book but but he's not trying to beat the market year-on-year his whole idea the objectives for his clients are don't lose me money you
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