저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2019년을 새로운 글로벌 주식 강세장의 시작으로 보며, 2019년 말 S&P500 목표치 3,200을 유지하고 연말 전에 이를 넘어설 수 있다고 주장한다. 목표치 유지 근거: 연초 목표 3,150에서 4분기 급락 후 3,000으로 낮췄다가 이후 올리지 않았다. 12~18개월 관점으로 투자하며, 8월 과도한 비관과 낮은 주식 비중이 연말 랠리 연료가 될 수 있다고 본다. 경기·자금 흐름: 경제지표 개선 흐름과 현금 보유 투자자의 주식 이동이 상승 동력이다. 미·중 무역 협상의 완전한 타결은 아니지만 연말 산타랠리 기대를 제시한다. 시장 구조: 2000~2013년 장기 약세장 이후 2013년에야 신고가를 경신했고, 현재는 장기 강세장 내 6년 차 국면으로 본다. 2019년 중에도 약세 조정이 있었다는 점을 강조한다. 글로벌 확장 논리: 미국 주식은 강했으나 국제주식은 부진, 신흥국은 부진했다. 향후 10년간 수십억 명의 중산층이 소비에 참여하면 아시아·중남미·유럽 소비 회복이 S&P500 기업 실적에도 추가 상승 레그가 될 수 있다. 리스크: 발언에서 명시적 하방 리스크 언급은 제한적이며, 지정학·무역 불확실성은 Belski의 비관론에서 제기된 쟁점이다. Belski는 지정학 리스크와 무역 불확실성으로 연말까지 의미 있는 상승은 어렵다고 봤고, 장기적으로는 대형 미국 기업이 유리하다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: Belski(Belski 측 견해)는 제한적 상승을, Tom Lee는 강세 지속을 주장한다.
다듬은 글
you were twenty nineteen year and target is thirty two hundred so you're looking for basically a hundred s and peace between now and the end of the year yes you get there confident yeah I mean I think we could even exceed it in the next seven weeks because of well you know I think the cadence of economic data is really improving I I I think as people start thinking bout next year they're they're gonna see upside risks to growth and then when you look at positioning I think people are still uncomfortably defensively positioned so that movement of you know cash into equities is is part of that rocket fuel okay belsky so on October 30th owner Owner read something that you wrote because it caught my eye you're generally bullish guy on the market this didn't sound all that bullish hit me as we have mentioned frequently we do not expect significant gains from current levels for the remainder of the year with the main reason being the unpredictability associated with geopolitical headwinds and developments particularly trade which has been the predominant topic of our client conversations lately talk to me you were getting a little cautious well I think first off when we when we initiated our target for 2019 we were at 31 50 and then obviously we had the terrible fourth quarter last year and then even worse December so we thought it was apropos and prudent to move it to three thousand you never moved it off that never moved it off that why would you move a target for six weeks left in the year that doesn't make any sense to us number one number two we when we invest we look out 12 to 18 months yeah chance is all on the way to move it up yeah we of course we did but at the end of the day too we still think that that we don't have an absolute perfect trade deal we think that the santa claus rally actually moved forward into october at this time around but basically given the fact that people became way too bearish in August and positionally we're way too short term cited ensure yeah if you want to admit pic and change a target by a few percentage points but at the end of the day we still think we're in a big 20-year bull market which has been our call since 2010 and we think stocks move higher we've entering into this mid-90s type of Goldilocks an area where an instability high quality really matter and that's why large cap US companies we think are the best positions in the world what I wanted to tee up by getting your perspectives between now in the end of the year which is somewhat you know unimportant looking at the big picture are the calls like that that you make Tom Lee well this may sound perplexing we believe 2019 was the start of a new global equity bull market I you know bielski just just laid his out - welcome to the second half of the bull market implying your 20 year thing we've been on a 10-year run I want to open that to the panel is that what this is is this mid cycle of bull market are we looking for much more prolonged cycle Justin we've thought so first of all let me unveil my year end my year end target is December 31st so I think I'm gonna I film and nail that one I'm not good with targets and and timing bull markets I don't really think that my opinion is any better than anyone else is but what I what I what I will say where I agree with both of the views that we heard I really don't understand why we're still talking about ten-year runs we had a bear market low in March of 2009 that was the bottom of a secular bear market that lasted from the year 2000 until 2013 you had a 13 year secular bear we don't when we talk about bear market since the bull markets historical bull markets 1982 to 2000 is the greatest bull market ever we talked about it all the time we don't time that from 1974 which was the low of the secular bear market that preceded it so the 2009 comp the the 11 year the 10 year were it's incorrect we made a new SP record high in the spring of 2013 it is the first time we got definitively above the 2000 high and the 2007 high from the prior peak that's it so basically it's a six year run and in the midst of that six year run we had a down year was last year so we have had bear markets cyclical bear markets already within that long-term bull it is not as though we've been rallying for 11 years non-stop and by the way the global component of it is the most interesting to me and I don't know if it'll be right but I hope it is we may have had a really nice run in US stocks international stocks have essentially lagged almost nothing emerging markets have been disastrous if that part of the equation begun began to get fixed this year and it is possible that could extend the run because you're talking about middle-class populations in the billions coming on in the next ten years that have not really taken part in fueling earnings growth and if they do if you start seeing a pickup and consumer demand in Asia and Latin America in Europe that's a whole new leg not just for international stocks but for S&P 500 companies that cater to them so I really think that there is an opportunity for this to go on way longer than people think given that it started much more recently than people think you
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