저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 미중 무역합의가 주식시장의 핵심 변수이며, 합의 시 5~10% 상승, 결렬 시 조정 가능성이 크다. 연준(Fed) 변수는 10월 금리인하와 파월 의장 지지 확보로 약해졌고, 이제 무역합의가 시장의 주된 관건이라고 진단. 무역합의 시나리오: 합의 확률을 70~80%로 보며, 관세 인하 합의 시 현재 사상 최고 수준에서도 추가 5~10% 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 반대로 12월 15일 관세 인상(25%) 같은 확전 시 시장 급락(조정) 가능성 제기. 최악은 교착 상태(muddle through)가 길어지는 것이며, 이 경우 합의 없이는 주식의 큰 진전이 어렵다고 평가. 장기 투자관: 자유시장 자본주의가 미국 부를 창출해왔다고 강조하며 미국 장기 강세 관점을 유지. 샌더스·워런식 사회주의적 정책이 도입되면 장기 전망이 약화될 수 있으나, 상원이 공화당을 유지할 가능성이 높아 정책 교착(gridlock)이 될 것으로 봄. 2020년 대선은 바이든·부티지지·워런 접전으로 예측. 유럽·일본 전망: 유럽 경기가 개선 조짐이며, S&P500 기업 이익의 상당 부분이 해외에서 나오므로 유럽·일본 회복 시 S&P500에 긍정적이라고 봄. 달러가 급등하지 않는다는 전제 필요. S&P500은 이미 가격이 비싸다(fully priced)는 인식도 함께 제시.
다듬은 글
it's not to talk about what's driving the markets and where they're primed to go next Jeremy Siegel finance professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania haven't seen you in a while professor welcome good to see you yes good morning Joe for a while I think you thought the Fed was was a major part of the equation you wanted one more cut you got it in October now the Fed is out of the equation and we're back to what happens with China is that your view but yeah yeah absolutely I mean despite Trump's visit with with chairman Powell chair a pal feels very comfortable now I think he's got the support of the committee he's got the support of the market we're back to a positive slope term structure which is a good sign I think I think the Fed is not in the equation anymore it's the trade deal markets wants a trade deal we get a trade deal where we lower tariffs we're gonna get a good five to ten percent pop I think in stocks even from today's levels which are all-time high that's not a symmetric risk that's another five to ten percent but certainly if we didn't get a deal which you say is 70 to 80% price then if we didn't get a deal and if the trade war were to really heat up it'd be worse than five to ten percent the other way in your view yeah III thinks I mean if we ratchet up and then it's way out of expectations you know the 25% tariff side I still think around the books for December 15th I mean if somehow that comes about you know I think we're gonna have a swoon in the market don't forget when we had a 20% drop remember last Christmas I'm just the fears that this was heating up if it actually comes about it's not going to be any better so you know I I don't think that's gonna happen I think the worst is a muddle through we keep on delaying that the market will tolerate that for a long time but I think it's we be hard to get a lot of progress on stocks without a deal you've I don't know when you first started recommending stocks for people I mean I I go back to 780 on the Dow so I'm pretty I'm the kind of sold on the notion of owning stocks long term but I've also been sold sort of on free enterprise private sector capitalism I've been sold on that for a long time would your whole view of the way things work change if we were to become a lot more socially Democrat whatever they're calling it whatever Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren call their philosophy would would you become less bullish long term upon the United States if if we adopted a lot of their problem I agree with you I mean basically the free market system is what generated our wealth over time you know I first edition of stocks for long-run came on 94 I felt really bullish about the United States and I still do yeah I don't let's put it this way I think the American public want to moderate in there they don't want a war in and they don't want a Sanders I think what's really important of course is also the Senate as we all know the oddsmakers are still saying that the Senate is likely to stay Republicans so even if one of those two win which Warren this is the more likely although really the race has become really tightened up really between Biden and Budaj and and yeah and Warren it's actually almost a toss-up in the in the markets but if Warren should come out ahead and the Senate stays Republican a nothing no well tax no medicare-for-all none of that's happening and you know so basically you have a standoff gridlock which of course a lot of people think is not that terrible from the stock so you're watching predicted it I watch that to it and the thing you mention all in the low 20s they're they're almost yeah yeah it's a real horse race they're actually it's my theory Bloomberg entered the market Minh to the primary system not so much to win but to get some votes which he could have some a lot of power to throw if there's a deadlock convention among them among these three or four top candidates not everybody is fortunate enough to go to Wharton or pen or but I'm not going to blame you entirely for 70% of Millennials think socialism is a good idea but what the hell is happening with you academics and professors can you if you did you leave that part out about how you know they profit incentive it allocates capital where it's most treatable if that happen what are you doing I mean are you mapping tries to hold it up I mean yeah are you surprised are you surprised I think it's one of the only departments at Penn I mean no it's it's also a matter of definition and understanding and really faulty understandings of history yeah I mean the the kids are not learning history of socialism and what's what's been tried and failed and that's a major if we can make your passions if we can get to the Kardashian you know what I'm saying they're the biggest capitalist so that's what I mean they got a start see they got a start it's preaching it from the mountain path professor yeah go ahead go again I don't know I'm just so 30,000 you've been talking about for a long time looks like some day not in the not-too-distant future that might be well yeah yeah I mean some debt were you know we're pretty fully priced but what I like about is Europe is beginning to look better and if the dollar doesn't soar and if the you know which is already dollar looks like it's not going to be moving up I think the reason I'm don't forget so much of S&P profits come from Europe come from abroad if if we get a turnaround in Europe Japan etc we can drive some good good prices in good markets in in S&P you
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