저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: FTX·SBF 사태는 제도권 언론과 기관의 책임 회피가 낳은 구조적 문제이며, 자산 가격 방향에 대한 직접적 전망은 제시되지 않음. SBF의 배경과 전략: 엘리트 사립학교·MIT 출신이며 진보 진영 명분(효과적 이타주의)을 활용해 언론과 정치인의 호감을 얻었다고 주장. SBF는 고객 자금 횡령 혐의에서 형량을 낮추기 위해 사기가 아닌 부주의였다는 서사를 만들려 한다고 분석. 사기꾼의 설득 방식: 나르시시즘적 사기꾼은 똑똑하고 말을 잘해 투자자의 욕구(100배 수익 기대)를 자극하는 이야기를 만들어 쉽게 조작한다고 설명. 본인이 엘리트 흐름에 편승하다가 사건 후 '순진한 피해자'로 이미지를 전환하려 한다고 봄. 언론·제도권 비판: 2016년 트럼프 사례처럼 언론이 실패를 인정하지 않고 기존 편향을 고수한다고 비판. 이로 인해 수천만 명 피해에 대한 책임 추궁이 이뤄지지 않는다는 주장. 제도 부패 논의: 엘리트 집단이 틀려도 책임을 지지 않는 구조가 문제이며 코로나 사례의 보건 당국 면죄 요구도 같은 맥락으로 언급. 진실 확인 기능을 맡아야 할 언론이 자기 서사만 반영한다면 대중이 진실을 알기 어렵다는 우려 제기. 종목·자산 언급: 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello guys Welcome to our channel the videos we make on this channel Focus largely around various types of Investments like ASX stocks us-based stocks as well as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or ethereum we analyze and look at various other analysts and figures in the space look at how they are valuing investments and analyze and predict ourselves now you look at SPF it's the exact opposite he went to the perfect elite private high school then he went to one of the most prestigious elite private universities MIT his parents teach governance of all things at one of the most elite liberal institutions in America Stanford they are in the establishment of the progressive left and what happened was he took customer funds and all of this money he made tens of millions of dollars of political donations he wrapped himself in this blanket of a progressive left-leaning cause called effective altruism and all of the mainstream media fell for it and embraced him as well as some politicians because it met everything that they themselves also bought into yes you know I can speculate about SPF I think if there is a strategy here it is this he is basically copying two criminal negligence in order to avoid the more serious charges of Fraud and I think again if there's a strategy here it is he saw himself being defined as Bernie Madoff 2.0 in the press and if that image which may well be true uh cemented around him then prosecutors would never stop they would never accept a plea that basically gave him anything less than I made off like sentence which would be you know decades in prison maybe a life sentence so he is out there doing what lawyers would tell you never to do which is basically incriminate yourself create more of a record but he's doing it to change the public perception maybe muddy up the public perception get people thinking that okay he you know this that he he's admitting he did something wrong but it wasn't deliberate it wasn't fraudulent it was just basically carelessness or sloppiness and if he succeeds in mudding the waters enough then maybe the prosecutors will give him a plea deal that allows him to have his life back at some point I think that would be the crazy like a fox explanation of what's Happening now there is you know an alternative explanation as well which is I just think that these types of guys you could call it you know a narcissistic fraudster do you think they can talk the way out of anything yeah the average person is not really used to dealing with one of these personality types who um is I mean they clearly are smart and they're articulate articulate and they know what to say and they're crafting their words what they've learned through their life is that if they use the precise magic words with a person they can pretty much you know convince them of anything get them to do anything and in particular I would say investors tend to fall for this not because investors are dumb but because investors are so clear about what they're looking for and what they're predictable they're predictable yeah like we're you know VCS especially we're looking for the 100x outcome or whatever so it's easy for this type of personality to construct a story to essentially stroke the erogenous zones of a VC yeah and and and sort of trick them and so there is probably a positive reinforcement Loop that gets created in the minds of one of these people who and they start to think that they can basically talk their way out of any situation so I think that would be part of what's going on here and you know if you look at sort of the tactics that he's using to do this you know all of a sudden he's trying to portray himself you know before this he's portraying himself as a smart guy in the room now all of a sudden it's this babe in the woods impression where I didn't know it was my subordinates I wasn't really in control before we continue click that YouTube like button and subscribe to our Channel this shows the algorithm that you valued this information and it helps us spread that message sharing is caring and now let's continue right each individual decision he says looked sensible to him it's just it all added up to something he didn't anticipate like really you know loaning yourself a billion dollars of of basically the company's money which was basically customer money that seemed reasonable to you I don't know how you defend that individual decision and there's many like that but but this is sort of the narrative that he's trying to construct what's your take on this and then February can I make a comparison to SBF and Trump through the lens of the media so if you go back to 2016 you know Donald Trump violated every single establishment bias that these left Progressive journalist Elites had and so they basically just attacked attacked attacked attack attacked but then you went into the election and there was a very clear data point that said whatever you thought was that was at best limited and you missed the tone of the country because 50 plus percent of the country held a very different view about this person and instead of taking a step back and and then the left media the mainstream media re-underwriting and learning and then saying you know what MIA culpa I got this wrong they just doubled down and they said no it still doesn't meet our priors and so we're just going to ring fence this problem and we're going to just try to destroy this issue because you know we want to control the narrative and and and by result we want to control Power and now you have this cataclysmic event a multi-dec a billion dollar fraud or bankruptcy millions of customer accounts who are frozen you know tens of millions to hundreds of millions to billions of dollars lost and stolen from them and they refused to re-underwrite this kid and the reason is because in order to do so it's like eating your own tail and that's why they don't want to do it and so this is why you have the media basically allowing him to do an apology tour now this is his second time at manipulating them the first time he was able to manipulate them by basically being one of them and now he's allowing them and their desire to basically protect themselves so that he can create some kind of a defense for himself and I just think the whole thing is gross because it misses the entire mood of the nation this is an enormous financial fraud that was perpetrated on tens of millions of people and there's no accountability because in order to do so the media would effectively have to admit that they missed it and they got it wrong and they refused to do it and I think like that is the really big problem that nobody is really speaking out about is like well if these folks are meant to be the last stop to make sure that there's truth and honesty and transparency in society and you can't count on them and in fact they're just going to reflect their own narrative what is one supposed to do to learn the truth in a way what you're saying and then we'll go to your freeberg is this fraud was encased in all the Gilded facade that America hates right now reflects the institutional rot of America it reflects every single aspect of institutional rot that every non-elite talks about all the time but Elites when they have those labels will refuse to give up and just to add to that the the thing that's missing that I'd say one of the big issues with the institutional rot in our country is the lack of accountability when somebody gets it wrong we saw this with covid right the health establishment is saying that they want amnesty yeah and a landing magazine was willing to give it to them so the point is that this this class of people think that when they get it wrong that they're the experts but when they get it wrong there should be no accountability in such a mouth to your point the media and these institutions are not willing to re-underwrite SBF when he's so clearly as a fraudster
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