저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: Cathie Wood는 파괴적 혁신 기술이 2030년까지 글로벌 주식시장 시가총액을 8조 달러에서 210조 달러로 키울 것이라고 주장한다. [시장 전망] - 자산 시가총액을 약 8조→210조 달러로 확대 전망(2030년 기준, 5년 투자 시계). - 기존 지수(NASDAQ 100 등)는 파괴적 혁신 노출이 낮고, 과거 성과 기반이라고 비판. [기술 플랫폼] - 5대 혁신 플랫폼 14개 기술: 유전체학, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장(전기차), 인공지능, 블록체인. - AI 학습 비용은 연 60% 하락 추정, 배터리 비용 하락 28% 등 Wright's law 근거 제시. [종목·자산 언급] - 테스틀라(Tesla): 과거 예측이 맞아 주가 20배 상승 언급. 현재 보유 종목으로 언급. - 엔비디아(Nvidia): 좋은 기업으로 언급, 과거 보유 언급. - 비트코인·암호화폐: 영상 소개상 언급되나 구체적 가격 방향 예측 없음. - 블록체인 기술 장기 성장 긍정. [리스크·조건] - 기술 비용 하락 속도와 대중 접근성에 따라 결과가 달라짐. - 단기 변동성 존재, 5년 시계 강조, 하락 시 물타기(averaging down) 권고. [출연자 전망] - 전체적으로 장기 낙관, 기존 질서의 파괴 가능성 강조. [기타] - 일론 머스크 관련 super app 가능성 언급(X/Twitter 및 결제 플랫폼 관련), 장기 긍정 견해.
다듬은 글
will focus largely around various types of Investments like ASX stocks us-based stocks as well as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or ethereum we analyze and look at various other analysts and figures in the space look at how they are valuing investments and analyze and predict ourselves what's what's interested in technology and understand that technology does solve problems and make our lives better so Arc does one thing we don't pretend to be an asset allocator our clients are the asset allocators and our clients decide for their clients how much risk this client tolerates so we focus exclusively on disruptive innovation research and investing nothing much we're not distracted by anything so it's really up to asset allocators and to individuals also to assess their risk tolerance the great thing about young people and today is they are cutting their teeth on crypto currencies crypto assets which are extremely volatile much like our funds are they understand if you keep your eye on the prize you're going to win what's fascinating about young people today is many of them are natively digital natively interest did in technology and understand that technology does solve problems and make our lives better I think they certainly do after the last year and a half but even before that as we were going into covid in a one month period we were down 46 percent if you look at arcs uh entire lifespan it's fun span roughly eight years now you'll see that there have been risk on risk-off periods and our client base our asset retention has been phenomenal because our clients know that you average down into periods like this and they also know and are learning as they study the various benchmarks and indexes out there that they don't have the kind of disruptive innovation that our funds do we are a great diversifier we think of most individuals and institutions are short truly disruptive innovation and that we can help diversify them based on what the um the last 20 years 22 years have been characterized increasingly by a shift towards passive uh passive investing and Benchmark sensitive investing why is that it is because of the tech and Telecom bust and then again 0809 and many people saw these benchmarks the passive indexes doing better than investors who actively manage their portfolios well this was part of a self-fulfilling prophecy if you have the pendulum swinging towards these benchmarks and towards passive they probably will outperform but if we are right and for the first time in history we have five Innovation platforms 14 Technologies the seeds of which were planted more than 20 years ago all ready for prime time now all ready for exponential growth opportunities what that means is the traditional World Order is going to be disrupted how these five Innovation platforms they are going to impact every sector every industry sub industry company so we use our research the screen for our portfolios is not a backwards looking index that would defeat the purpose of investing in the future right the screen is our research and we give it away so that our clients and others can understand why we're investing in these Technologies why we think they're so important and why they should get on the right side of change this is part of our Mantra many people think they are exposed to our kinds of strategies but disruptive innovation with NASDAQ 100 for example they are not if you look into that index which you find fangs Nvidia good company Tesla we own the last two but we have not owned the Fangs for quite some time in our Flagship strategy and if you look down below in the other 50 percent of that portfolio you'll find food stocks you'll find brick and mortar retail you'll find utilities you'll find energy if people want Innovation they should invest someone should provide provide them with Innovation and not a hedge their advisors can hedge or they themselves can hedge you can hedge with cash as well well if you think about Innovation that's going to discern disturb the traditional World Order who are the big big banking clients of these Banks right the traditional world order they give them a lot of business and these littler companies smaller companies are nipping at their heels and they're basically dismissing them and so we are the only company I think doing the depth of research on truly disruptive innovation out there and we are also doing something else that traditional research firms do not anymore they used to when I started in the business we are focused on a five-year investment time Horizon for our public portfolios and now for our public-private crossover fund longer still this is what's missing in this market this very short-term behavior that has forced management teams into basically catering to short-term desires like buying back shares paying dividends instead of investing in Innovation I do believe that during the past 20 years we have been through the most massive misallocation of capital in history this move towards indexation what is it it's investing in the past the companies at the top of these big benchmarks are there because of past success if we are right and there are five Innovation platforms which include 14 different Technologies all evolving at the same time and s-curves are going to be feeding s-curves as they converge then the traditional World Order is going to be we think severely disintermediated if not destroyed we Center our research around understanding how Tech technology learning curves are going to translate into Costa clients and how soon these technologies will become inexpensive enough for broad-based Access so that's what we do technology by technology the five major platforms right now are one we used to call it DNA before we continue click that YouTube like button and subscribe to our Channel this shows the algorithm that you valued this information and it helps us spread that message sharing is caring and now let's continue sequence the genomic red protein and it's you know biology is extremely complex this is going to We Believe bring about cures for disease we're already seeing it with crispr Gene editing in beta thalassemia sickle cell disease attr these are cures and one of the companies in our portfolios is sure that they will have the answer meaning cures for diabetes which is one of the biggest costs in the Health Care System around the world today so multiomics robotics which we don't think is going to replace jobs as much as increase the productivity of human beings especially collaborative robots that are covered in sensors energy storage so electric vehicles artificial intelligence artificial intelligence training costs are dropping according to our estimates by 60 percent per year and the breakthroughs in AI are astonishing even us we expected for example computer programmers to increase their productivity with AI with something called co-pilot now in 10 years it happened in six months so again truly disruptive and then the last one is blockchain technology uh which you know if you think about the internet many people say to me oh gosh that's that's where you know we were in the tech and Telecom bubble right now we beg to differ blockchain technology basically is providing us what uh the internet was lacking when we didn't understand that what it it would involve Commerce and if you look at the cost declines associated with each of these Technologies you look at and Wright's law says for every cumulative doubling of units produced cost decline at a consists DNA sequencing uh 40 or if you're talking about long read sequencing 28 robotics 50 Battery Technology 28 uh artificial intelligence I just mentioned we're getting our arms around what this is but AI training costs dropping 60 per year and these breakthroughs astonishing breakthroughs is the best in the business we have two very important proofs of concept here Tesla we were ridiculed for our our our forecasts on Tesla why did we get that one right because we understood where Battery Technology was in terms of cost declines hitting tipping points that would uh increase access and so Tesla did go up 20-fold this is what so exponential growth is what many people in the traditional world not this world but many people in the traditional world are scared to death of exponential growth why they're first exposure to it was in the Tekken Telecom bubble and that ended badly investors were flocking that that was the time to say wait a minute the Technologies are not ready and the costs aren't low enough yet this can't happen today we're saying hey the Technologies are ready the costs are low enough and you've got investors not running into these Technologies but running away from them which by the way I've learned from very early in my career if everybody is looking in this direction and thinks this is the way it's going to work and you see evidence building data data data building suggesting this is the way it's going to work you're going to make a heck of a lot of money five years is by our investment time Horizon we believe these Technologies are going to scale in the global Equity markets from eight trillion dollars now to 210 trillion dollars by 2030 and if you want to see the building blocks for this go to Arc Dash invest Our Big Ideas 2022 and you'll see the building blocks for that 210 trillion dollar number we're very excited about the he believes in vertical integration and I think he he calls he's thinking about a super app like WeChat pay remember he started in the payments industry PayPal he sold his company to PayPal he and Jack Dorsey working together I think could turn this into a super app and if I wrap in terms of money making but is it the super app no no no no no I mean like a digital wallet so you do all your banking there maybe there's something they are doing with cash app you do all your shopping there you get your loans there it's your bank branch in a pocket I think they have a good shot and one of the reasons as I've watched Elon he truly believes in vertical integration that would be a magnificent uh vertical integration and remember he he already has designed and is manufacturing the ultimate mobile device the internet on Wheels it's called Tesla cars he knows how to do this he knows how to do this that is the darkness was in their opacity Twitter's past like we didn't see the algorithms and how they were working and what they were open source transparent this generation we know this we built arc on top of transparency and true democratization they want the transparency
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