저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
2025년 엔비디아 주가는 변동성이 컸으며 현재 약 171달러. 2027년 1월 끝나는 회계연도 EPS 컨센서스 745달러, 선행 PER 25 기준으로 2026년 말 시나리오 분석을 제시. 가장 유력한 시나리오는 주가 210~230달러로, 이전 전망보다 하향. 고객 집중도(빅4 하이퍼스케일러 약 50%), OpenAI 자금조달 및 순환출자 우려가 리스크로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
2025 has been a volatile year for Nvidia stock investors. Lots of ups and downs, lots of risks, lots of celebrating, and lots of enthusiasm. Overall, the stock price is up over 27% year-to- date, outperforming the S&P 500 index. So, now investors are looking ahead to 2026 and asking about Nvidia stock.
In this video, I'll provide you my stock price estimate for Nvidia by the end of 2026. Where do I think its stock price would be? I want to thank the sponsor of this video, Mumu. Mumu is an investing platform. And what really sets Mumu apart is the research tools. You get free access to real-time level two data, unusual options activity, Morning Star research, and analyst ratings.
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So, I've pulled up a chart here for Nvidia stock price performance in 2025, and you can see the volatility. Started the year around $135 a share and crashed all the way down to around $90 a share. That's where I bought positions in my portfolio. I added Nvidia stock around April at around $93 a share.
The stock price then proceeded to soar all the way above $200 per share before falling back down. now trading at around $171 per share as of this recording. So, as you can see, it's been a volatile year. It's been a few ups and downs, but overall, it's been a good year for Nvidia stock investors. So, to make this stock price estimate for the end of 2026, I need a few numbers.
And one of the numbers I need is Nvidia's earnings per share estimate. So, the analysts on Wall Street that are following Nvidia stock, they expect the company will deliver $745 in earnings per share in its fiscal year that ends in January of 2027. Nvidia's fiscal year ends one month after the calendar year ends.
It's got a mismatch between its fiscal year and its calendar year, which is allowed by accounting measures, accounting frameworks in the United States. So that's why they have their fiscal year ending in January of 2027. And the analysts on Wall Street that are following Nvidia expect the company will deliver $745.
The other number I need is Nvidia's forward price to earnings multiple. As of this recording, Nvidia is trading at a forward PE of 25. Now, looking back at Nvidia's valuation multiple going to January of 2024, a forward PE of 25 is near the lower end of where Nvidia stock has traded for according to this valuation multiple.
More often than not, you'll find Nvidia stock trading at a forward PE at around 30 or above that ratio. The lowest it's ever been in the previous year and a half or so, two years, let's say, is around 20. And that's immediately after President Donald Trump announced the tariffs around April. And as you recall, all stock prices fell after those announcement.
Well, I shouldn't say all stock prices, but nearly every stock price fell following the announcements of those trade barriers and increases in tariffs. Since then, Nvidia's valuation has risen all the way up to 35 and came back down to around 25. So, now that we have the parameters, I can go ahead and share with you my scenario analysis for Nvidia stock for 2026.
And what you'll see is I'm keeping the earnings per share constant at $745. And I'm evaluating four different scenarios with the forward PE multiple increasing in two of the scenarios, staying the same in one of the scenarios and decreasing in the other scenario. So, if Nvidia's forward PE remains the same and the earnings per share remain on track to hit $745, then the stock price could rise to $189 per share.
That would be a roughly 10% increase from the current stock price of $171 per share. And investors wouldn't be angry about that performance, but they also wouldn't be thrilled. I don't think a 10% return for Nvidia stock for 2026 is a good enough risk adjusted return because you are taking above average risk for Nvidia stock.
And if you're only receiving a 10% rate of return on Nvidia stock, I think adjusting based on risk, that wouldn't be a very good return. Thankfully, that's not where I think will be the most likely scenario. I think the most likely scenario is that Nvidia's forward PE multiple increases. If it increases to 28, then the stock price could rise to $29 per share.
If the forward PE multiple increases to 32, then the stock price could rise to $238 per share. However, there's also a scenario where Nvidia's forward PE multiple declines. And if it declines to 20, then the share price could fall to $149 per share. And you might be asking, in what scenario would Nvidia stock price decline?
Well, I'll highlight a few scenarios. Nvidia, as you might already know, has a large degree of customer concentration risk. The four big hyperscalers, including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms consist roughly 50% of Nvidia's overall revenue. If there should be some headwinds to the digital advertising industry, then that could pressure those companies revenues and their profitability, which could cause them to decrease their spending on these data centers optimized for AI.
And since Nvidia is the primary beneficiary of that category of spending, that could be a big headwind for Nvidia. and the fear from such a pullback from spending from the largest customers could cause enthusiasm for Nvidia stock to decrease significantly. So that's one scenario that could cause Nvidia share price to fall and the forward PE multiple to fall as well.
But I think more likely Nvidia's forward PE multiple increases as we continue to see the artificial intelligence development come in either as expected or better than expected as we've been seeing over the previous 12 and 24month periods. Coming into 2025, investors already had high hopes for the AI industry.
And we're near the end of the year now and nearly all metrics point to the AI industry being better than expected with demand being more than expected. The concerns and why you've seen a lot of headwinds for AI related stocks in recent weeks with stocks like Oracle, Broadcom, Nvidia and others experiencing some downtrend is because of the financing.
Where is this money coming from to fulfill the orders that are coming in for ? One of the biggest spenders in the industry is Open AI, home to Chat GPT. And that company is losing billions of dollars on the bottom line. So investors are concerned how Open AI is going to continue paying for all of its computing power if it's losing billions of dollars on the bottom line.
That's the big concern. Open AAI has a few choices and investors are not happy with any of those choices. For instance, Open AI can stop allowing users to use the service for free. it can put it behind the payw wall for everyone and that would create a better balance between its cost and its revenue and support the spending to build out its capacity.
But then that would slow down the growth of the number of people that are using the chat GPT and that would be a disappointment to stock market investors. The other way Open AAI can finance some of this growth is by selling stakes in its business to some of its uh suppliers, right? And that's the other concern, the circular financing where OpenAI purchases GPUs from Nvidia, but to pay for that, it sells a stake in its business to Nvidia.
So Nvidia is selling its GPUs to OpenAI but simultaneously or not simultaneously but around the same time it's buying a stake in Open AI in equity. So it's owning a piece of the business. In other words, instead of Nvidia getting cash for making the sale to Open AAI, Nvidia is getting an equity stake in the company.
So Open AAI is not paying Nvidia with cash. Open AAI is paying Nvidia with a piece of the business and that's a less sustainable source of revenue, a lower quality source of revenue than just a straight out purchase of Nvidia's products from its customers. And so that's another concern investors have and that's why the stock prices of some of these AI related companies are falling is because of that circular financing concern and the concern about where the money is going to come from to support the growth of this industry.
Still, demand for artificial intelligence far exceeds supply and the consumer demand for these products and the increase in productivity it's creating should continue to support investments in this category because the alternative costs so much more. The difference is that companies are paying for this upfront and then realizing the benefits slowly which is a capital concern, a financing concern.
It's not a business concern. It becomes a business concern because of the financing risk, not because of the concern about demand and the pricing of the products that you're delivering. So, all that being said, where do I think is the most likely outcome for Nvidia stock by the end of 2026? I think the most likely scenario is Nvidia stock ends 2026 between $210 per share and $230 per share, which would be a nice improvement from the current price of $171 per share.
But this is a noticeable decrease from my previous stock price prediction for Nvidia stock by the end of 2026, which I made 3 or 4 months ago. So the expectations for Nvidia have diminished for 2026 based on those concerns I highlighted earlier. Still a solid share price return I expect from Nvidia for the upcoming year.
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