저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 FY25 매출 640억달러(+24%), AI 매출 200억달러(+65%), 4분기 매출 180억달러(+28%)로 가속 성장. AI 사업은 전사보다 매출총이익률이 낮아 마진 압박이 예상되며 이것이 최근 16% 하락의 원인. 현재 주가 339달러, 내재가치 376달러로 DCF 기준 적정~소폭 저평가이나 시장배수 평가는 여전히 부담스러워 Hold 유지, 5~10% 추가 하락 시 Buy 상향 고려.
다듬은 글
Broadcom stock is down over 16% over the previous five trading days and investors are asking what's going on with Broadcom stock. I'm going to answer that question by going through the details of the big investor update that Broadcom reported and that's what has the stock price trending downwards. and we'll dig through those details and I'll share with you my fair value calculation for Broadcom stock so you can see if the stock looks undervalued after this 16% decline.
I want to thank the Mly fuln their fiscal year 2025, Broadcom's revenue increased 24% to a record 64 billion. AI revenue is accelerating and despite this recent sell-off, Broadcom stock is still up over 40% year-to- date in 2025. Its AI revenue grew 65% year-over-year to $20 billion. And the management team said that they see the spending momentum by their customers for AI continuing to accelerate in 2026.
That's a big statement there from Broadcom's management team. is the word accelerate because that means the rate of increase is going to increase. The second derivative which stock market investors pay close attention to uh relatively few companies have accelerating revenue growth at such large scale like Broadcom is reporting.
And so that's what has a lot of investors excited about Broadcom stock. But there was something about the company's forecast that actually created some negative sentiment surrounding Broadcom stock and it had to do with the gross profit margins on its AI business. The management team said that its AI business generates lower gross profit margins than the rest of the business overall.
So the conclusion is that if the company's AI business is growing much quicker than the rest of the business, which clearly it is, that means there's going to be pressure on the company's gross profit margins, which are likely to trend downward. And that's been one of the most positive things about Broadcom stock is it's been one of the most profitable companies in the world over the previous decade when you measure it on operating profit margin, gross profit margin, cash flow from operations to the sales, free cash flow yield, etc.
Regardless of the profit margin you use to evaluate Broadcom stock, it's been among the leaders of all companies in the world. And so if its profit margins are coming under pressure, that's a headwind to one of the biggest selling points for Broadcom stock. Total revenue in the quarter was $18 billion.
That was a record and it was up 28% year-over-year and above their guidance of what they were expecting. Now if you compare that overall for the year their revenue increased by 24% but for the most recent quarter revenue increased by 28%. Again pointing to acceleration in revenue which is the second derivative which is very attractive for investors.
Adjusted IBITa at 12.2 2 billion was up 34% year-over-year. And again, it points to remarkable profit margins. If you divide the adjusted EBITDA by the total revenue, 12.12 billion divided by 18 billion, their adjusted EBIT margin is over 2/3 over 66%. That's remarkable. That's among the best of the best of any company I'm following.
And I follow roughly 300 companies. The management team alluded to robust growth was driven by the AI semiconductor revenue of 6.5 billion and that was up 74% year-over-year. Their custom accelerated business more than doubled year-over-year as they see their customers increase adoption of XPUs as we call those custom accelerators in training their large language models and monetizing their platforms through inferencing APIs and applications.
So to put this into broader context, hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, uh Amazon, uh Meta Platforms etc. are spending hundreds of billions of dollars building their data centers optimized for AI. Most of those data centers up till this point have been equipped with GPUs primarily sold by Nvidia which has an estimated market share of around 85 to 90% in that category.
So these hyperscalers are looking for other options instead of going to Nvidia for these needs. And what Broadcom offers is a custombuilt accelerator for those data centers optimized for AI. Customuilt for the company that's purchasing those products. So this isn't an offthe-shelf product like what Nvidia offers to all hyperscalers which is in such high demand that Nvidia is sold out in some of its most cutting edge technology.
But more frequently, customers are choosing these customuilt accelerators because they can tailor design these accelerators for their own use cases. And from what I'm learning, certain artificial intelligence, certain programs have certain needs and that is more um performant if they utilize these customuilt accelerators.
It's a better cost performance. It's a better top-line performance compared to just using something offtheshelf from someone like Nvidia or even the offthe-shelf offerings from AMD or some of these hyperscalers are creating their own chips as well TPUs and you know Microsoft is calling it something Amazon calls it Tranium and uh Inferentia.
So, they're all developing these chips, but all of those other chips are off the shelf that the purchasers have to incorporate into their technology. But with Broadcom, you can custom design and custom build based on your needs. And that could provide you with another source of competitive advantage if you can design and build these XPUs to your needs that outperform the other GPUs that your competitors are utilizing.
So they're getting a lot of orders for these uh XPUs. Right. Last quarter they received a $10 billion order to sell the latest TPU Ironwood Rex to Anthropic. And in this quarter they received an additional 11 billion order from this same customer for delivery in late 2026. But that doesn't mean their other two customers are using TPUs.
They acquired a fifth XPU customer through a $1 billion order placed for delivery in late 2026. So Broadcom is securing large multi-billion dollar deals from some of its customers that are shifting some of that strategy for purchasing uh GPUs or accelerated computing products for their data centers optimized for AI.
And we were expecting this to happen, right? I've been talking about how strong of a position Nvidia has in these data centers optimized for AI and that some of that position would deteriorate as companies look to other options as they feel uncomfortable relying on Nvidia for so much of the supply for these data centers going into the GPUs going into these data centers.
So, the biggest factor coming out of Broadcom's earnings release was what I talked about near the beginning of the video with the gross profit margins for its AI business being lower than the rest of the business. And since that part of the business is growing much quicker, the forecast for gross profit margin and profitability overall for the company took a turn for the negative.
And that negative sentiment is what's persisting. And that's why the stock is down almost 20% over the previous five trading days. The market price is now to $339. The intrinsic value per share I upgraded today. It increased by a couple of dollars up to $376. So after applying a margin of safety, Broadcom stock looks fairly valued or slightly undervalued when measuring by my discounted cash flow model.
However, I still have Broadcom stock rated as a hold because the company's market multiples valuation is still stretched in my opinion and I would like to see another five or 10% improvement or decrease in Broadcom's market price in order to upgrade the stock to a buy, but it's almost there given this big sell-off in Broadcom stock.
I had the stock rated as a hold. I told investors it was too expensive in early December. I told investors not to buy this stock going into the earnings release. The risk versus reward was unattractive. But as the price has decreased, the valuation looks more attractive and it's almost to the point where I might upgrade this to a buy.
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