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let's hit Tech first um should we be surprised at this Resurgence um this melt up and it's um maybe caught some people by surprise um I I think investors should realize 2024 has been a year of uh surprising strength the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the Year where we know there's still 7 trillion of cash on the sidelines and quite good visibility next year so I I think stocks should finish very strong why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is up 1 and 3/4% today the NASDAQ up almost 4% over a month and able to achieve this Milestone one reason is Mega caps have been leading um so it's sort of what people reach into the Shelf when they risk on but second we know that when interest rates fall uh the mega caps actually are very sensitive to that and I think today was a day where the odds of a December cut increased you know the probabilities are are now solidified and that's actually bullish for Tech because the CPI was you know some would say sticky but it was largely in line is that how you read it the yeah that's right and I think it's allowing the CPI print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because shelter now is cooling to a level that's in line auto insurance which was at 25% earlier this year year-over year is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributors CPI are in a downshift I don't think the fact that used cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view I don't think the fed's going to tighten because used car prices are up all right so fed's cutting next week that's your base case yes and then what happens after that all bets are off wait and see what do you think uh I think the fed put remains in Play Because neutral is let's say 2 and a half to 3% we're at 4 five after the December cut so we know the fed's in a cutting cycle I actually think the best case is for the FED to do the fewest number of cuts next year that means the economy is pretty strong that's right it's strong they don't they're not harming the economy by keeping rates here and the labor market is is holding up and now we have a lot of Firepower for future cuts which support stocks okay you talk about a fed put you also talk about another put and that's a trump put yes he's going to be here tomorrow by the way ringing the opening bell people are excited about that uh down here for sure um but you say that that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year the Trump put explain uh the Trump put is on the simplest level it is the a white house that is going to measure its success by how the stock market performs but it's also a president that's coming in into a second term but with a lot of EX previous experience so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and I think very markets friendly overall I I think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years now want to be risk on next year all right so your outlook to me is interesting the way you sort of game out where the S&P can go because you say we're going to 7,000 by mid year which sounds amazing cuz most targets that I've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year your full year forecast though is 6600 why uh part of it cyclical we're coming off two backtack 20% years and there are five precedents to look at five of the five precedents since 1880 had a weaker second half so I'd say that's the base case the reason I think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new White House some of the headlines that come whether it's uh deregulation Etc and we know there's still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the sidelines that's why stocks can rally and by the way 11% in in a few months we've seen that routinely the last couple of years but in the second half I think markets start to worry about the larger macro risks like the Middle East the potential risk of tariff and executing that and potentially the fact that Doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy you're you're worried about too being too efficient cutting too much and what the impact is going to be chip makers the unsung heroes behind our devices are emerging as the Vanguard leaders of this transfer of information and companies like Nvidia and broadcom are at the Forefront laying the groundwork for a new era Domin dominated by artificial intelligence and infrastructure the tech industry is undergoing an exciting metamorphosis that is poised to redefine the digital landscape as we know it insights from a fascinating interview with Howard Chan the founder and CEO of curve Investment Management show that these Tech Titans are preparing for an unprecedented surge in demand there is a lot of talk in the investment community that these Hardware Giants are not only addressing the current seismic shifts headon but are actively creating the the future playbook in Silicon are we seeing the beginning of a silicon Revolution investors in Gold Rush Tech are eagerly awaiting the drama that will play out in this high stakes Arena vi back shares of Nvidia are bouncing back pretty strongly today up nearly 4 and a half% but they're still down 7% from their November highs and on Pace to break a four-month win streak comes as broadcom is having its best month ever and has outperformed Nvidia by 30 points since reporting earnings last Friday so what's the better bet from here our next guest has a Buy on both let's bring in VJ Rakesh senior semi Analyst at mizuo exced exciting times here VJ it's great to have you and are you in the kind of everybody can win camp here or is nvidia's kind of um moment as the most important stock in the market over yeah thanks for on Kelly so I think if you look at uh Nvidia and broadcom we like both both have been top piics for us and both have done well this year I would say valuation wise they're about the same but I would say Nvidia is very well owned everybody has Nvidia they are the King on the AI side they dominate the market they're almost running at 100 annually in data center revenues broadcom on the other hand is just starting to put up massive numbers now I think we like the name they have a huge ramp coming up over the next two years it's very under owned people were cautious go heading into earnings and so we think there is probably some more legs left to the runway investigating this story further reveals that the rumors about Nvidia and broadcom are not merely Market rumors rather both businesses are positioned to profit from the AI wave's extraordinary demand for processing power while everyone was staring at software unicorns a storm was quietly brewing in the Silicon foundaries investors were licking their lips at the juicy prospects and bystanders were wondering if they should have held on to those old CPU jokes you know the ones about how many chipmakers it takes to change a light bulb more Howard Chan emphasizes this point by pointing out that the sector's current and future Capital expenditures are primarily focused on hardware and infrastructure ructure the light bulb has already been programmed to replace itself however some Industries may be struggling due to the high interest rates despite the volatility Tech giants like Nvidia and broadcom are unaffected and continue to display strong balance sheets that demonstrate resilience of people said I had no idea you know about broadcom so you're right it's going to take a little while to penetrate the Consciousness maybe that's a Tailwind what about Nvidia yeah I think Nvidia will do very well I think what you saw in the last two weeks is a little bit more uh I would say you know people getting excited around cont compute and so you saw a little bit of a softening on the on on Nvidia and a little bit some the focus mov the cont Computing names so that said I think Nvidia is still you know the leader on the AI Side by far they dominate 90% plus of that market and that's a market that's growing 90 billion 100 billion this year going to almost 160 billion plus next year so massive market for every they dominate that so we can like the name I think might be a little bit of a FSE uh but not a name to be let go I think this is this is going to be a huge thing for 2025 us you have $175 price Target one more question on this and I want to ask you about Tesla but you know in the case of Nvidia do you think that there is a shift going um in the AI world and maybe you know more about what's going on um sort of the latest of what's going on that I do but is there a pivot where it's gone from this kind of massive rush to build out these huge data centers and just do huge model pre-training um to inferencing and time test and compute and all of that and and does that actually you know lesser favor or require Nvidia not really I think when you look at ining is already 40 50% of workload and when you look at Nvidia their gpus can be dynamically shifted between training and inferencing the hypers scalers can allocate whatever in know capacity workload they want to to training during the night and inferencing during the day or however they want it but it's very fungible uh but you will see influencing continue to grow and that's why there's a little bit of an opportunity for custom silicon as well where you see broadcom and others start to gain in track yeah marll as well U much the second quarter of the fiscal year according to Howard Chan is a critical time because EPS growth is predicted to reveal startling Trends even the Skeptics are intrigued by this Prospect and the NASDAQ 100 is reflecting this excitement as Tech valuation Soares through the symbolic ceiling a 21% consensus in EPS growth up from 15% this year is no small accomplishment but it's important to remember that this is nothing new for these Titans who have continuously dazzled markets for more more than 20 years and the influence of AI extends Chan's work in technology has an impact on various Industries such as biotech and construction simply said the substantial impact of this technological Revolution is demonstrated by the ROI in productivity in service Industries and the indirect spillover of AI investment into non-tech sectors a is not merely rewriting the rules it is writing new chapters Nvidia and broadcom's dual roles as suppliers and beneficiaries in this high demand ecosystem are what make this story so captivating in addition to meeting present needs they are also The Architects laying out the future and painting the tech world with the Allure of silicon gold video here for a minute because I'm going to ask you the same question I ask somebody else on the show last week I I was speaking to uh founder of an AI company that is really ground level when it comes to all this gen AI uh application adoption the llms and the creation of them and this person said to me uh that they think that the world is much more close to being over supplied in gpus than everybody realizes or at least investors realize and that 2025 could be a year where you see a dramatic swing in light of that flash forward to a couple of days ago Sati Nadella from Microsoft is on a podcast and he says power yes constrained quote unquote I am not chip Supply constrained is the is there a possibility that we actually see this shift next year and if so is that part of why we're seeing Nvidia sell off right now and and that rotation into other names like broadcom as some investors are anticipating this sure no Marg that's a fair point but uh I think what many of these uh customers are or partners are looking at is uh the situation uh when it comes to nvidia's Hopper product right you know Hopper came out two years ago um and uh we are just at the verge of making the crossover to Blackwell Blackwell is just starting to get shipped and it takes a minimum of two to four quarters right for customers to get their complete allocation so it's very hard to see how they are Overstock when they have yet to deploy their first cluster right with uh Blackwell the second very important thing that I want to mention right which is something that came out on broadcom's earning call is they are saying that we have line of sight to multiple hyperscale customers who want to build clusters that are one million uh accelerators each you know the state-of-the-art today is a cluster that xai is building that is only 100,000 going to 200,000 then maybe a million and broadcom is saying we will see multiple million unit accelerators that suggests that the market for training could last much longer and be much bigger than we think over the next uh few years so what you said makes sense I think for nvidia's prior generation product but black Bell they have just started to ship and uh that's why it's hard to see that being uh overstocked anytime soon and it it's back to the point I made before that it's execution on Blackwell the day they get Blackwell out and it is shipping without any hiccups to all these customers I think interest will come back to Nvidia just as quickly as it do one thing becomes abundantly evident as the dust settles on forecasts and analysts examine their charts with strong Market projections and an evergrowing AI footprint Nvidia and broadcom are unquestionably at the top of an exciting Tech wave that isn't going away anytime soon investors may be on the verge of a fantastic opportunity the stocks of these Trailblazers are incredibly resilient with their consistency and potential appealing to both the cautious and The Adventurous investor the upcoming quarter promises crucial insights and impactful growth current trajectories and forecasts signal a promising elevation in their positions making them not just players but Pioneers in this new era men wers those who are keeping a close look made recognize that making an investment today could potentially lead to an investment in the digital Gold Mine of future finally if you want to know what companies like Nvidia have been up to these past few days click on the next video on your screen I hope to see you there are you prepared to participate in this exciting Journey or will you be watching from the sidelines as these Tech Titans redefine what's possible in today's digital ecosystem share your thoughts and let's continue the conversation about the future of tech
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