저자: Stockabilities채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 역사적 신고가 부근이라 지금 진입은 위험하며, 1~3개월 내 하락 가능성이 상승보다 크다고 봄. 장기적으로는 보험 사업과 사이버트럭 등으로 성장 잠재력이 있으나 지금 가격은 비싸다는 입장. [가격 위치와 기술적 판단] 테슬라 주가 381.50달러, 사상 최고가 부근에서 거래 중이며 과거 이 구간에서 잘 버티지 못했다고 언급. 단기적으로는 400~500달러까지 밀어올릴 가능성보다 하락 가능성이 더 크다고 판단. 하루 이틀 지켜보며 신고가 테스트 결과를 본 뒤 풋 매수나 공매도를 고려할 수 있다고 함(스윙 관점). [보험 사업] 테슬라가 자체 자동차보험을 인수해 직접 제공할 계획, 일부 경우 보험료 20~30% 저렴하다고 주장. 확장 일정은 불명확. 보험 사업이 기업가치를 크게 끌어올릴 수 있다고 봄. [사이버트럭과 제품] 사이버트럭 발표는 발표 실패에도 바이럴 효과로 노출을 얻었다고 평가. 차량 자체는 가격 대비 괜찮은 품질. [재무 리스크] 간접비와 부채가 과도하고 주주 가치(주가 기반 자금조달)에 의존해 회사를 유지 중이라고 지적. 2018년 일시적 흑자 후에도 안정적 수익은 불확실. 부채 상환을 위해 추가 주식 발행이나 대출이 계속 필요하며, 이것이 부채 복리 위험을 키운다고 경고. [투자 전략] 장기 투자자는 주가가 크게 하락할 때까지 기다리는 것이 좋다고 조언. 2019년 12월 말~2020년 초 하락 후 300달러대가 진입 후보 구간으로 제시. 현 시점 장기 진입은 좋지 않다고 함. 보유자는 일부 매도(트림)와 풋으로 헤지 고려 가능. [장기 전망] 2021~2022년쯤 보험 효과가 반영되면 주가 500달러 이상도 가능하다는 장기 견해. [기타] 진행자는 투자 자문가가 아니라고 명시. 후원(Patreon), 디스코드 등 채널 홍보 위주 발언.
다듬은 글
hey everybody and welcome to stock abilities today I'm gonna be covering Tesla plant I'm covering this a little while back but I wasn't quite sure if it was ready to consider shorting yet and apparently holding off was a good idea she can see here it's pushing into nearly all-time highs and historically however it does not hold very well so I'd be very reluctant in buying shares up here at the peak I would be considering puts in or shorting very soon maybe give it a day or two see how it tests all-time highs and go from there for swinging on a downtrend and I'm not necessarily bull or bearish I would say on Tesla but on the shorter term I would say that it would be a very unlikely I've come to see this pushing to 400 or even 500 into the end of the year there's much more of a chance of a downturn than an upturn and I'll be getting into that so make sure to LIKE this video share your comments below and share this video as well if you'd want more input on Tesla or if you want additional content and things like that so I'm gonna jump right into it here that it's currently trading at 381 dollars and 50 cents kind of price the end and in the previous years it hit over 383 these Google charts aren't exactly exact but I just wanted to keep it simple for you guys and it's pushing very near the all-time highs there's a lot of benefits to investing in Tesla but you have to treat it as a long-term stock and not as a short-term that and as they are highlighting here through Yahoo that it's hitting highest close in nearly two years which is obviously not the most bullish factor in regards to trading with Tesla there's something that I personally like that made me turned from more bearish to bullish with that so but it's more of an a long-term sense that they recently acquired essentially a car insurance that they'll be offering directly and they claim 20% lower rates in some case as much as 30% and they're gonna expand slowly but there's no real timetable now this was earlier than this year this is April of 2019 for 2020 coming up here and you have the Tesla cyber truck that came out recently as well and although people could say it had a bad presentation and the whole idea was a viral attempt to get more attention to the truck and it clearly worked and they got more exposure without actually paying for it because they did the presentation similar to Apple's presentation where the phones weren't working in it was all basically a staged stunt for anyone that believes that it was not they should watch apples previous presentations in association and they followed the same kind of formula as Tesla here so both on the insurance and in Omni new vehicles the vehicle itself is actually decent quality for the price that you're gonna be paying the problem that Tesla always has is that they're using a lot of essentially shareholder value rather than an actual value that they're bringing into the company their overhead and debt is kind of ridiculous through their productions of the trucks and through other vehicles and just previous that that they had they barely scapegoated in the recent year or so essentially paying in cash to keep their company alive and then they had some bad press like the 420 secured Tesla type of thing going on so it's kind of a nifty if he point to be considering a long term investing at least at this high on Tesla I would wait for a significant drop again before you consider it and I'm assuming it's gonna happen either by the end of December of 2019 or early into next year and then once you get close to the 300 range if you're considering long-term investing that might be a good area to start out I know that sounds pretty low but Tesla does have rather huge moves and just some other things the higher highlight here is that as for the hiring slit some that's not nested to tell you that the signals that this vehicle company is in the place Manufacturing is under control and supply is meeting demand that's the scalable long a future place to be and it's the circle just can't be seen this positives well they're cutting down their overhead so they're sort of trying to progress towards that they've had some updates with their solar and some other things that they're doing and they have this new VR tech that came out recently that looks promising but once again that's more overhead that they can't necessarily afford to be doing in the first place but it's worth highlighting that that is something that came out that they're trying to progress towards in the future it's a talk about that in a separate video but I just wanted to throw that in there in this video and recently in 2018 they actually turned a little bit of a profit but they're still struggling to maintain essentially a steady profit at least in a valuation sense that they're trading at ridiculous highs through essentially a euphoric hype that can't really necessarily last forever now there's companies like Apple and companies like Amazon that are trading at ridiculous valuations but comparing Tesla and Amazon that's a too big different companies Amazon has lots of room still for expansion and Tesla is just one niche now they're trying to expand into further niches such as the VR virtual reality and then with the insurance that gives them an extra boost of valuation I could see in the coming years maybe 2021 22 or so on that they might be trading at $500 a share more because there's a lot of value in the insurance aspect that people don't realize and that could supercharge the hype aspect of it and also bring them into well above profitable margins but right now they're still struggling a little bit to keep the value up high they're still making a lot of money's but they still have a lot of overhead as well and how they're gonna end up maintaining all that cash flow and everything it's brings it to one simple thing here that essentially they either gonna have to pay the debt that they have in cash which they did recently in the last year and then going a little bit further that the only way to fund the position is to ever increasing the share equity or long-term debt raises so they have to continue to maintain the hype and use the valuation of the shares to keep float their company and then they take that valuation out so essentially their shareholders are in a way keeping their company alive but at the same time they're leveraging their debt by taking out other loans and other things like that to try to keep the company going so that they can make it past the hump of the ever exceeding debt compounding and that could in theory bankrupt them completely so without the insurance aspect that was quite bearish but with the insurance I've seen companies in the billions of dollars of debt turn that around into a lot of profit and a lot of growth in the future so just utilizing just the insurance aspect alone there's a lot of money to be made now once they as they're sort of seemingly getting their productions more steady and they're sort of keeping in there kind of flow going in regards to a long-term sense there's a lot of promise for Tesla but the issue is I wouldn't be considering for the share price anyways as this is a good ideal investment point I would say to wait a little bit now keep in mind I am NOT a financial adviser or anything like that so you can use this and put to your own purposes for whatever the reason but essentially I don't feel it's a good idea to invest at least at this peak at this point when it's testing all-time highs a very dangerous point now if you're scalping possibly if you're swinging maybe but in a long-term sense this is not a good entry point now if you're holding it from a while back maybe considering trimming your position and adjusting it and maybe hedging with puts or something like that if you want to hold for the longer longer term the project evaluation over 500 dollars a share it might be good idea to consider something like that I have a patreon if you want to consider that I have different tiers here 545 60 and you can read all about them in the actual patreon page but essentially to keep producing these videos and things like that since schools changes to the YouTube Adsense policy basically means that you can't generate ad revenue unless you have over 4,000 hours of watch time in the given year this is still small channel so I generate zero revenue doing these videos outside of maybe the occasional affiliate link sign up and things like that but helping you subscribe to the channel like this video coming in this video helps as well if you can't afford the page and supports also gonna jump right into it here that I have a discord chat that if you want to check it out it's free for stock traders and freelancers and things like that post a variety of alerts as well as stock news updates and things like that both on the stock channel that you're listening into in through different alerts on the discord channel I also have a freelancer section if that's something that you'd be interested in as well you can check that all out of need description below thanks for listening in and have a great day and I'm gonna kind of show a little suggestive it is here so spend a second and take a look see if any of them are Angelo's to you and see you later on
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