Wedbush's Dan Ives on big tech: Hard to be bearish on Apple in 'AI-driven super cycle'

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애플은 아이폰16 AI 슈퍼사이클과 서비스 매출로 강세가 예상되며 약세 베팅은 어렵다고 주장. 중국 실적 역풍 종료, 아이폰16 출하 전망 8천만→9천만대 상향 언급. 엔비디아 버블론은 강하게 반박하며 MS·구글·AWS·AMD 데이터를 근거로 AI 내러티브 유효, 내년 AI capex 약 1조달러 전망. 단기 공백은 인정하나 시장 패닉은 과도하다고 봄. 애플 AI 수익화는 1~2분기 내 확인 못 하면 재고 가능성 언급.

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01. Amazon on Pace for the worst day of the year Dan IES joins us here at post9 web Bush Securities analyst to break down some of those numbers let's I guess begin with apple you seem relatively think the phrase that's been tossed around is good enough for now make sense I'd say that was about as bullish as you could have gotten from copertino and cook going into an iPhone 16 cycle which hasn't even begun not just in terms of the guidance China I think this is their last negative quarter from a year of year that starts to be a Tailwind look at services that means it's rock solid to me it's a on a scale 110 called a 98 relative and that's why I think this is a stock that powers through the headwinds we're seeing and it's hard to be bearish on Apple going into what I view as an aid driven super cycle for iPhone 16 will there be a debate about that strength versus the macro consumer worries we just spent 10 minutes talking about yeah look that would be the debate but I mean I'll be in Asia again this weekend everything we've seen is 80 million units is what we started for iPhone 16 now it's up to 90 so this is going to be a balancing act as we've talked about a lot but in terms of the data in terms of the quarter in terms of what you saw from Microsoft from a from a an Azure perspective you look at what you saw from Google you look at what you saw from an AWS perspective for Amazon the AI Revolution story I believe is well intact and all of our checks this is not a time to panic despite the White Knuckles that we're seeing in the market the ft is reporting uh the Elliot management told investors recently that Nvidia is in a bubble and the AI technology is overhyped and that the reality is not matching the hype you totally disagree I know I couldn't disagree more relative we we were here before earnings before conference calls I think we even talked about it let's see what numbers look like look at the Azure acceleration look at what Lisa Su talked about from AMD we saw what we thought Azure was disappointing in terms of the acceleration that they're guiding for for second half that's really talks about demonetization that that moment is right here and my view is look the haters have continued to hate the Bears have been there for the last few years I get right now it's easy to come out and kind of yell fire into a crowd theater intact we don't see it because it's not just from the call you see the value matching the hype I actually think the street is underestimating what is going to be a trillion dollars of AI capex over the next 3 to 4 years in terms of across teack and nothing that we saw here in any way DS to De no you're right Dan listen none of them are backing off their capex plans to your point I mean AWS actually acceleration at AWS in terms of Revenue growth up 19% uh there is still though this larger question as to whether you're going to ultimately get that return on investment over time you obviously believe that will be the case but what do you see on the ground in terms of applications that are coming in the near term that will start to at least alleviate any of those fears some investors may have from the Enterprise perspective perspective and we'll hear it from Godfather AI Jensen and in a few weeks the the use cases and the amount of Enterprise right now they're on that AI path is up 45x so these Enterprises are on the path from what I believe are going to be use case across Healthcare financials Insurance retail as as we've always talked about it all comes down to show the modernization the spending is there and I think when you look at what Sue talked about nadela you know what we talk about from Sundar Jassie this revolution is happening the modernization phase is now just starting I'm not going to see what that we're going to have air pocket between the capex and when Revenue comes but to bet on this and to bet against it to me like to bet against cook and 2.2 trillion in in terms of where we ultimately see you know the actual install base and you look at actually right now an AI Revolution coming to Apple that's a tough bet would you give it a year if it doesn't happen in a year right if the rhetoric doesn't change then would you start to get nervous I'd say if we sit here in January February and we haven't seen it we haven't seen the monetization from a software perspective we haven't seen it from an actual mod outside just mag 7 to call it second third fourth derivative if mcder comes and all of a sudden he's negative on a then that's where of course we have to take you know sort of look at it but right now it's actually more embolden because of what we see not just earnings but from our checks I've never seen Bill mcder negative on anything well he has pivoted before and it comes if McDermot Sue nadela cook are seeing something I'll take them despite many that are right now kind of throwing gasoline on the Fire