저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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Powell의 FOMC 기자회견은 9월 금리인하 가능성을 열어둔 시장 친화적 메시지였다고 평가. 실질금리가 높아 인하 여력이 충분하고, 고용지표는 약화 중이나 25bp 인하가 현실적이며 50bp는 실업률이 4.3~4.5%로 오를 때만 고려 가능하다고 봄. 2년물 대비 10년물 역전은 크게 좁혀졌지만 아직 역전 상태이며, 2~5년물 국채가 안전자산으로 유리하다고 주장. 장기물은 부채·재정적자 우려로 불안하며 다음 경기침체 때 곡선이 크게 스티프닝될 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
so with that let's welcome in exclusively Jeffrey gunlock he's the CEO and CIO and founder of double line Capital Jeffrey welcome back it's good to have you as always yeah good to be back on fed day Scott yep your reaction to what you just heard well you kind of stole it a little bit I said usually in these post R uh press conference appearances I have a kind of a word of the press conference and the word of this press conference is could he could he said it several times we could cut rates in September so he also re reiterated a number of times that they have a long uh amount of ammunition a large amount of ammunition if the economy does start to weaken but what is interesting about I think uh the messaging from J Powell is he said that conditions in the labor market and in the economy broadly are sort of like they were pre pandemic on the on the doorstep of the pandemic and yet the FED funds rate is 525 basis points higher than that okay I'll acknowledge the inflation rate is probably about a percent higher than it was PRI the pandemic but that kind of means that there's a lot of room for them to cut short-term interest rates our inflation model suggests that based upon where the commodity prices are and what we expect from shelter to happen that we could we could get a two handle on the CPI we already have it on the pce but we could have a two- handle we could settle in even in the lowu and if you have a positive real interest rate that's even uh 1 and a half% that would suggest you have 150 basis points of of of room to cut rates without even thinking that you're being excessive about it U so I I I really think that we should expect to see the markets enjoy what the FED said here because they said not only could we cut rates at the very next meeting but we could cut them a lot if we need to and I think that's uh very heartening particularly for the stocks that kind of got beat up you know the high beta stuff where interest rates Cuts would probably be awfully helpful he he mentioned numerous times uh in fact to your point that the FED is still restrictive should they have cut today I think they should have cut today quite frankly but you know what's what difference does it make you know six or eight weeks or whatever it is seven weeks um I think one thing I find was funny when people asked about the political climate and saying you know they don't want to be political and September 18th is less than two months away from the election I just think that's so laughable that if you cut rates 25 basis points that would have any impact on presidential politics I think if you ask the average America what the FED funds rate is they wouldn't even know that it's a number they wouldn't even know what it means let alone to know that it's at five and 38 today uh so I I just don't really think that that's very relevant but I I do think I think this this is a a pretty reassuring um uh press conference for the markets I thought I thought Jay was very well prepared he even seemed overprepared I thought he was reading more of his uh remarks and particularly in the answers to questions he seemed to go uh to a script but that's okay he had a he had a thread the needle I guess he really had to do because it's clear that the employment data is is not is getting worse that's pretty obvious I mean the quits rate is going way down the employment rate is now 7even uh 710 off its lows it's being artificially suppressed by government hiring which has been in a interesting uptrend over the past 18 months or so uh so I I I think it's clearly weakening we see we see um continuing claims On The Rise initial claims are in an uptrend so I I think he's wants to reassure people that he's watching these things he he's hopeful that the unemployment rate doesn't go up by 210 or 3 t one of these months but it has been rising uh and uh so we do have two more employment reports before the FED next fed meeting and we have two more CPI reports so I think those are going to very strongly inform the the rhetoric that we get and whether or not we get a cut of 25 basis boys he he seemed pretty clear that they're not really uh Cons considering at all based upon the mix of the economy and inflation right now cutting rates 50 I think that would be you'd have to see unemployment rate go up to probably 4.3 4.4 maybe even 4.5 uh over the next 2 months which seems unlikely to for them to consider a 50 basis point cut in September but there's there's Cuts coming uh the yield curve has has been de inverting you know we we're hanging out at about I don't know 15 to 20 depends what minute you look at it basis points higher yield on the 2-year than the 10e that was out at almost 110 basis points uh several months ago so it's been a big narrowing but it's it's still inverted and uh we still believe believe that there's a very safe place to be is in the 2-year the threeyear the 5year treasury which should have pretty big rallies um when the feds uh should they even cut one time I think we'll start we de invert the curve and head to a steeper yield curve the long end of the curve I I feel is still in the throws of angst over these interest rates and the level of the debt and the level of the deficit I know I talk about this all the time but it's extremely important in our world today and I think the Y Curve will steepen quite a lot in the next recession
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