저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 과열 상태로 0.236 되돌림선 이탈 후 조정이 필요하며, 61.8% 되돌림(약 69,000달러) 부근까지 밀릴 가능성을 제시. 비트코인 도미넌스 하락 시 알트코인 강세 기대, USDT 도미넌스·DXY 하락을 위험자산 선호 신호로 해석. 계절성 분석상 9월 평균 수익률은 -3.2%로 제시되며 10월 이후 반등 가능성 언급. 레이 달리오의 미국 부채 위기 경고와 금·비트코인 분산 권고를 인용. 다수 알트코인 기술적 레벨 설명 및 자체 지표 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Okay, in this video we have more questions than answers because people are asking: is this a local peak for Bitcoin? Was this a false move and how will it affect the rest of the market , including your altcoins? Because Bitcoin has made a significant leap. It seems like a correction is needed, and if Bitcoin pulls back, will the decline in Bitcoin dominance accelerate and will altcoins bleed even more?
Since the great movement has taken place, now is the time to wake up, the time to be attentive. They drove. Let's start with Bitcoin. Is this a local peak? I guess we guys really need some pushback, but that's totally fine. We need a pullback, and during it we need to determine one thing to understand whether altcoin growth is likely.
We'll talk about this very soon. So, if Bitcoin does pull back, what level is it likely to fall to? We have several key areas. We have a correction level of 0.236, and this is a correction from its previous historical high. So this is an important level that Bitcoin broke. However, it is unlikely to hold as a support zone as we know we were overbought at this point.
This is visible on the indicators, but what happens, guys, when you are overbought? You need to cool down. So, Bitcoin should roll back. The market cannot simply go up in a straight line. RSI is heavily overbought. But that's okay. This is good because Bitcoin has made a big move. Bitcoin rose. Bitcoin rose on volume.
We can check the volumes, and that's exactly what we mean by a big spike in volumes. Here you have the accumulation phase. Nothing is happening. Volumes are low. People accumulate positions, and then out of nowhere—bam , bam, bam. Large volume spikes push Bitcoin all the way down to just below 80,000, which has become a rejection point.
So now we'll talk about rollback. The rollback, how deep will it be? Because we have two key levels. We have a 38.2% correction level for Bitcoin at 72,983. This would be a small correction before a new move up. But we on this channel like to look at the market structure. How deep is the pullback likely to be ?
How long will it take for the indicators to roll back? Look for clues on the left side of the graph. So, we are looking for double confirmation. We are looking for a correction of 60, sorry, 61.8%. The 61.8% correction is just above 69,000. Why is this such an important level? Because at this level we have a dual configuration.
We broke through several major barriers. We broke through the largest trading volume area here. 67,284. We broke through level 236. And this is the most important thing. We broke through the 200-day moving average. So, where is the 200- day moving average for Bitcoin? Correction 61.8%. This is a dual configuration.
69,092. If we pull back, we will likely pull back to the 61.8% retracement level. If you look to the left to see if there is any structure or price dynamics, yes, it was a magnet for price. So, this is a likely pullback zone. If Bitcoin rolls back deeper than 38.2, it will likely get some reaction, forming a base at 61.8.
And the goal when that happens is for our indicators to start cooling into the oversold zone. At least the indicators, such as the RSI, have pulled back to the 50 level, and the stochastic to the oversold zone. So, these are the signals we will be paying attention to in the coming days. But is it worth thinking about how altcoins will behave during this pullback?
If Bitcoin dominates , that's the next thing we'll look at. If Bitcoin dominance starts to fall while Bitcoin itself is retracing, it is a signal that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin during its retracement. This is what we will pay attention to next. So, Bitcoin dominance, we expected a 60% deviation.
It was overheated at 60%, and the goal, guys, is for this chart, the Bitcoin dominance chart, to be bearish. We want altcoins to outperform Bitcoin. So we get early warning signs and early signals. And when we look at 60%, we see the importance of this level. This was an important level, it was a point of significant divergence during this phase of Bitcoin accumulation .
And we are waiting for a significant downward momentum, as was the case in 2017. Top of the wedge, bottom of the wedge, like in 2021. These are altcoins that outperform Bitcoin . This is altcoin season. We didn't have it in 2025, we didn't have it in 2026 . And that's why we're looking for signals that Bitcoin dominance will bounce off the 60% level.
This will cause a pullback while Bitcoin corrects, signaling the superiority of altcoins over Bitcoin. So, we had certain metrics for a high-risk rally. What should happen? Let's consider this again. We want Bitcoin to go up. Where exactly should Bitcoin go ? We need it to rise above two zones. The area of highest trading volume and the 200- day moving average.
It passed them straight, including the 0.236 retracement level from its previous all-time high. So what Bitcoin did is very serious. The second thing we were looking for was a weak dollar. We have been expecting a weak dollar for such a long time. We got the higher minimum here. We saw the accumulation .
We saw weakness. We got a fall. We got a drop in the DXY index below the 200- day moving average. So, we lost the trend. This is confirmation of a trend reversal. And when we see a weak dollar, it signals that people have the confidence to get out of dollars and into higher risk assets, sending the DXY down.
What about the dollar in cryptocurrency? Our measure of the dollar in crypto is USDT dominance. And this, my friend, is the final nail in the coffin . 8.158% and 200-day moving average. People are spending their stablecoins. People have the confidence to spend their stablecoins and move into higher risk assets, i.e.
Bitcoin, i.e. altcoins. So, think about it from a psychological perspective, friends. You have the market capitalization of the entire crypto market, including USDT. So, USDT is a stable asset . USDT is a stablecoin. When people hold USDT , it means they have the confidence to buy cryptocurrency. So when people spend their USDT, what does it yield?
This reduces the market capitalization of USDT as the capitalization of the assets it is spent on increases. So, this is what we need . We want people to have the confidence to spend their stablecoins. This is USDT dominance, massive rejection . This is very good. Loss of 200-day moving average, big volatile bounce down, testing this previous low here.
Okay, I understand. So, we have some clues as to what should happen when Bitcoin starts to pull back. The next question is whether people have confidence beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. And so we look at the Total 3 indicator. And yes, people have the confidence to buy outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum because the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is rising, breaking through the 200-day moving average, reaching highs of 792.21 billion, and now it's rolling back.
A breakout and close below the 200-day moving average at 702.77 billion would be a cancellation. So, this is a key area to watch, but the overall "total three" looks very strong. And before we move on to detailed analysis and queries on altcoins, let's take a look at Ethereum versus Bitcoin, as the second least risky asset still outperforms the least risky in the crypto market.
We go through cycles of Ethereum season and Bitcoin season. And during Ethereum season, altcoin season comes, because Ethereum is currently ahead of Bitcoin. This does not mean that Bitcoin is not growing, because Bitcoin is also growing at this time . This means that Ethereum is growing much faster in this case.
During this period, guys, Bitcoin usually falls, falls, falls and falls. Ethereum is falling harder, but Ethereum is now ahead of Bitcoin: it formed a higher low, broke out of the 12- month upward channel, broke through the 200- day moving average, tested the previous lower high and broke through it—that's where we need to return in the short term, to 0.03214.
Altcoins, but let's look at this first. Because it's important, guys. Let's take a look at Bitcoin and what is likely to happen in August and September. The first thing we'll do is look at Bitcoin: it's up 16.95% over the past month, a little more over the past 6 months , 17.72%, and over 10 years—12,963.26% .
So, over the year we are down 14.27%, sorry, over the last 12 months we are down 34.06%, and over the last 3 years we are up 187.88%. So, Bitcoin is on an upward trajectory. When you look at the subsidence, look here: during 2022-2023, we had a subsidence of 76.67%. Currently, the maximum drawdown we have had in this cycle is 53%.
So in the last cycle, it rolled back much more strongly. That doesn't mean the bottom hasn't been reached yet, guys. This does not mean that we are in for a new bullish rally. We say that this subsidence is smaller than the previous ones. When we look at the subsidence that we looked at earlier, if I can find it.
No, I can't find it. I don't have it open. Oh, there it is , guys. We've looked at this before . So, that's the good, the bad, and the ugly. This is a new bull market chart. And we talked about how in every cycle we were surrendering. Surrender. In every other Bitcoin cycle, we have had some kind of capitulation.
Bitcoin has not had any kind of capitulation in this cycle so far. So, if we start a bull market now, it will be the first time in Bitcoin history that a new cycle has not been accompanied by a capitulation. Yes, okay. Let's get back to this. So, what else are we looking for? Annual performance. What I want to get to, and this is important, guys, is the seasonality report, because it will give us an idea of what is likely to be in store for us through the end of August, into September, October, and the rest of the year.
So, the seasonality report looks for correlations with previous years of the Bitcoin cycle. He's trying to find the best correlation, and the two best ones he found are, first, 2021, which is a good sign because it was a bull market then. It has a 74.32% correlation with the 2021 bull market. The next correlation is the year after the election, which has a 74.48% correlation.
So, we have strong correlations between 2021 and the year after the election for Bitcoin. The year after the election is marked in purple. 2021 is green. So, we're looking at the red graph now. We are in the red zone. And you can see that for these two correlations—the year after the election and 2021—Bitcoin started to go up a little bit.
We saw a small pullback in the run-up to October, followed by a rally in October and November. This happened both in the previous year after the elections and during the 2021 bull market . Therefore, it is likely that this will repeat itself in the future: a similar trajectory, when first there is a pullback before October, and then growth.
But Bitcoin just made its big move. We are happy with this. What Bitcoin has done looks strong. He has a lot of space to roll back. It may roll back to the level of 61.8. It may even hold this level for a long time while staying above the 200-day moving average. So from this we can conclude what Bitcoin will probably do.
If you look at the average yield in September, in 2025 it is -3.2%. We had positive 5% and 7% in 2024, just under 4% in 2023, and the rest of Septembers were red. 2022, 2021, 2020, 19, 18, 17 years. So, the average return of Bitcoin in September is -3.2%. OK. Look at this. August, 20.7, 20.87% currently.
So, this is seasonality. Yes, okay, template. This is what artificial intelligence says. AI provided a trajectory for the coming months, particularly for September. The most correlated event, this is the most likely scenario, the most likely event is where we go up, then we roll back down, and then we start going up again over the next month.
A medium long is a small pullback . We're expecting a little pushback, guys. Bitcoin is overbought. We need to roll back . We need to see what altcoins are doing. So, this is a medium long. If you pull back and then go up to 93,000 and then another pullback. What will happen after this rollback, we don't know.
We are only entering mid- September. Next 30 days. So, it has a reliability of three out of five and a probability of 70%. This is interesting. Overbought or oversold? We are just entering the overbought zone for Bitcoin. Bitcoin really needs to cool down, we know that. When we look at the advanced DPO, the way you guys use it is you have four different colors.
When you look at the four different colors, they indicate a strong buy signal (green), blue is a hold, orange is a sell , and red is a strong sell. So, we're in standby mode now, blue. Is there any news? Ray Dalio, the legendary Ray Dalio, warns of an approaching US debt crisis and calls for investing in gold and Bitcoin.
For those who don't know who Ray Dalio is, guys, go and see what Ray Dalio does. He is, in my opinion, the best macroeconomist in the world, in the world, guys , definitely. He has so many great books, absolutely amazing. He looked back into history, studied debt cycles, analyzed what happened hundreds of years ago.
He turned his attention to the Roman Empire and finds similarities between the cycles of empires. So, a prominent investor is urging people to move away from bonds and toward gold and Bitcoin (BTC ) to protect themselves from potentially serious problems with the US debt. The US debt problem, how do we know people are abandoning the dollar?
People are abandoning the dollar. So, Ray Dalio is urging people to invest in gold and Bitcoin because he sees a weak dollar in the short term. Okay, let's move on to your queries about altcoins. First, Jasmine. We see Jasmy rolling back to this level. This is strong. We returned to base. So you have a hoard, a hoard, a pit.
We returned to base. Maintaining this level will be important. 0.00421. Then we have resistance here. How will Jasmy behave when Bitcoin goes down ? It will be interesting. Will dominance decline? If dominance falls, the total three indicator will increase. Expect Jasmy to rise towards its 200-day moving average.
Chainlink. Yes, okay. Chainlink is about to get a “golden cross”, guys. Within the next 2 days we will receive the "golden cross". And also within the next few days the " traffic light" system will start working. So, the “traffic light” system will be applied to Chainlink. If you want to take advantage of the traffic light system, you know what to do.
Follow the link in my description. The traffic light system is absolutely free. You apply it to your chart using the TradingView free plan by simply clicking on the link and watching this video. It will teach you how to apply it to your schedule. You receive a PDF file. It explains exactly how to set it up on TradingView.
It tells how to use it. More importantly, it explains how to add three moving averages to a chart using just one indicator so you can use the free TradingView plan. So, Chainlink looks good, but it needs a pullback. If we simply overlay Fibonacci levels from bottom to top , we will expect a correction.
38.2, 61.8. Most likely, it will return to the 61.8 mark. Why? Because if we look to the left, we will see the structure levels at 61.8. Chainlink made a big move. After resistance turns into support, we expect it to hold. You almost have a "traffic light" system with green at the bottom, yellow in the middle, and red at the top.
This potentially signals a strong bullish momentum similar to this one. Similar to this one. So be sure to download this "traffic light" system. It costs nothing for your development, but you need to learn how to read the price chart correctly, and this is the simplest strategy you can use. Yes, okay.
Chainlink, then Ondo. Ondo is now gathering strength. We want Ondo to break through the 61.8% retracement level and consolidate above it. You see, this is a magnet for price, where we are constantly being pushed back at this 41 cent level. So, a breakout above this level in the short term would be a strong signal because after consolidating above you have limited resistance and we can show this by simply adding the largest trading volume area and you can see for yourself from this volume that it will be around the 61.8 and 38.2 levels.
So you see, this is a trap. This is a trap. Breaking above this level would be a serious step. You have the largest trading volume area, which is now a rejection point. A consolidation above this level in the short term would be a strong signal. 37 cents. If we can get back to 37 cents, break through that 41 cents, hold it as support, then we can expect more volatility.
Much of this depends on how altcoins behave when Bitcoin retreats. So, let's say the pullback to its support level is almost complete. Almost. By the end of today's trading, ideally, you want to see a breakout of the 0.04622 level. And here you have a resistance zone. When we look at the resistance, you see that the lower high here also coincides with what?
With a 200- day moving average. This will be your next resistance zone. When you overcome it, the situation will begin to simplify. 0.05729 for SUI. So, yesterday we looked at Shiba. Shiba is still waiting for a breakthrough. We looked up and then rolled back down. Holding the 200-day moving average will be important.
This is why the 200- day moving average is important right now, friends. Above the 200-day moving average, you are bullish. Staying above the 200- day moving average signals to the bulls that you have momentum. We are looking for a breakthrough here. Bonk. So, Bonk is one step ahead. Here is the trend line.
Here is the trend line. We looked up. We take the 50-day moving average, holding it as support, this is a structure. She leaves clues. Rejection, rejection, downward movement. Pushed up. So that looks pretty strong. You have resistance here, it's a buildup of structural price action at 0. many zeros 418.
I'll place a price at that level. So, this is your resistance, and this is your serious resistance. A breakout above this level for Bonk would be a strong signal. Dogecoin is the leader among meme coins. This is a big trend that has been going on since the meme coin rally in late 2024, it seems. Yes, it seems.
end of 2024. Now we looked up. We have returned the 200-day moving average. This is a really strong signal for Dogecoin. So, will we hold the 200- day line on Doge? This will be the most important moment. Bottom. Top. We have level 382. Your level 382 was here. And then you have level 61.8. Maintaining the structure of higher lows is the most important thing right now, guys.
This is a good sign for Cardano. So, we went up. We have reached the 1618 expansion of this first oscillation. Returning to this range will be the most important thing for Cardano. So we still have some room for maneuver. We need to bring the 200-day moving average back up, hold 23 cents as support, and then we can start to grow.
When we hit the 27 cent ceiling and start breaking through, things will get easier for Cardano. Yes. OK. So, let me know what you guys think. Would you like more detailed analysis on Bitcoin? Do you like seasonality reports? Want to see more like this, where we analyze the next 30 days from a seasonal perspective to identify correlations, understand what's likely to happen next month, and most importantly, how to prepare for it?
If you want, let me know in the comments. Sorry, write in the comments. Subscribe to the channel if this is your first time here and you want to stay up to date with events in the crypto market. Also, guys, like , share the video, and see you soon.
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