저자: DocCurry · 외국인
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결론: 실적·물가·고용 악재에도 나스닥은 애플 강세로 보합 이상을 유지했으나, JP모건 CEO의 경고와 주택 시장 악화 등을 근거로 향후 경기 침체 가능성이 높다는 시각. [시장 동향] 목요일 시장은 장 초반 하락 후 나스닥이 상승 마감, 다우는 하락. 원인은 TSMC 호실적→애플 수요 증가 기대→애플 2% 이상 상승(나스닥 비중 약 14%)으로 지수를 견인한 것. [물가·금리] 생산자물가지수(PPI) 전년 대비 11.3% 상승으로 예상보다 높아 향후 소비자물가(CPI) 상승 압력 우려. 연준 월러 이사는 0.75%p 인상을 예상하면서 더 큰 폭도 열어둠. 시장은 100bp 인상 확률을 거의 확실시하다가 약 50%로 낮췄으며, 발언자는 100bp 인상을 여전히 예상. 다음 FOMC는 약 1.5주 후. [주택 시장] 모기지 금리가 5.30%에서 5.51%로 상승. 5.5% 이상이면 역사상 가장 주택 구매력이 낮은 시장이라고 언급. 주택 가격 하락 및 주식 시장에 부정적 영향 전망. [고용] 주간 실업수당 청구건수 24.4만 건으로 8개월 만에 최고. 실업률이 낮게 유지되는 한 연준의 금리 인상이 계속될 수 있으나, 청구건수가 계속 늘면 경기 침체로 연결될 수 있다고 경고. [실적] JP모건, 모건스탠리 실적 각각 약 28~29% 급감(악재), 다우 하락 요인. 금요일 발표 예정: 유나이티드헬스, 웰스파고, 씨티그룹 등 은행주 실적이 다우에 영향 줄 것으로 전망. 기술주 실적은 나스닥 방향성 결정 요인. [JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼] 현재 미국 경제·고용·소비는 견조하나, 소비자 신뢰지수는 역대 최저, 개인 저축률은 역대 최저 수준, 신용카드 부채는 역대 최고. 발언자는 저축 고갈·카드 한도 소진으로 소비가 곧 급락할 것으로 예상하며 다이먼의 낙관적 현재 평가에는 동의하지 않음. 다이먼은 지정학적 긴장, 고인플레, 소비자 신뢰 저하, 금리 인상 폭 불확실성, 양적긴축(QT)의 글로벌 유동성 영향을 경고하며 글로벌 경기 침체 가능성을 언급. [향후 일정] 2주 내 기술주 실적 발표, 연준 FOMC(7월 28일 목요일 전후) 및 2분기 GDP 발표(공식 침체 여부 확인). 7월 18일 월요일 Larry Jones·Josh 라이브 스트림 예고. [기타] 채널 구독자 감소 관련 구독 확인 요청, 'Millionaire Club' 가치투자 챌린지(워런 버핏 전략 모방, 2,000달러 시작·격주 200달러 적립) 예고 및 MooMoo 계좌 개설 링크 홍보.
다듬은 글
hi guys it's doc Curry and despite a deluge bad news and bad earnings the stock market traded flat the NASDAQ went up so what's going on well I'm about to explain in today's video so let's get into it Thursday started off with the producer price index or PPI Rising faster than expected in fact it showed in 11.3 annual gain now remember the PPI or producer price index is a forward indicator of where the CPI or Consumer Price Index might be in the future because it shows how much the goods and services that are produced in the US are going to cost in the future as the price of the goods that are purchased by producers goes up they have to increase the price of the goods that are sold in order to keep up their profits so with an 11.3 percent increase in the producer Price Index this could literally point to an 11.3 percent increase in the cost of goods and services in the future so this is a very important thing to look at we did not want to see a number this high this is not good news and it means that even if oil and food prices go down we could see CPI continue to rise if the goods and services rise faster than the oil and energy and food come down so not good news we'll have to keep our eyes on this in the future now of course this is going to affect how much the FED raises their interest rates by and the FED Governor Waller came out today and said that he expects a 0.75 percent Point hike that's a 75 basis point rate hike but he says he's open to a larger one now this was interesting because the markets are pretty much pricing in almost guaranteed 100 basis point rate hike and after Fed chair Waller made his comments the market started pricing in only about a 50 chance of a 100 basis point rate Ike and this is kind of what the FED does the FED it's going to fill out the markets you're going to have one fed member say 75 five they're gonna have another fed member say a hundred they're gonna kind of fill it out see how the markets go and if they think the market can handle 100 basis point right then they'll most likely go ahead and do that and so this is kind of the process we're in I pretty much ignore this back and forth until we get a lot closer and then as we get closer and the FED starts to leak sort of what they're going to do in the day or two ahead of time so the market can kind of get prepared so this is just part of the banter don't worry about it too much I still think we're going to get the 100 basis point rate hike and we'll probably get a little better idea of what's actually going to happen as we get a little bit closer to that fed meeting that's coming up in about a week and a half now more bad news that came out on Thursday was that the mortgage rates increased again all the way up to 5.51 from 5.30 and keep in mind any rate increase above 5.5 officially puts us in the most unaffordable housing market in history even more unaffordable than 2007 and with a rate of 5.51 that we're currently at we are back to the most unaffordable housing market in history so this is not good news for the housing market it will cause housing prices to come down but it's still hard to say what this is going to do to rental rates it's kind of a wait and see right now but as this mortgage rate continues to increase the home prices will continue to decrease and that is not going to be good for the stock market now other bad news was the fact that the U.S jobless claims reached the highest level this year last week's jobless claims were 244 000.
that's the highest level in eight months now this is not good because remember the fed's whole purpose behind everything is to raise interest rates get inflation down while keeping the unemployment rate low and so far the FED has always pointed to this huge amount of job openings that far exceed the number of unemployed as an indicator that the economy remains strong but we have to keep in mind that those job openings are going to be for very specific skill sets and the people getting laid off may not be able to fill those skill sets so we could see job openings remain high as unemployment starts to rise now so far unemployment remains low so long as unemployment remains low the federal have no problem continuing to raise interest rates is a very aggressive Pace however if the number of jobless claims continues to rise and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down down this could cause unemployment to rise and could send us deeper into a recession now the other big news that came out on Thursday was earnings and we've got to talk about three companies that reported earnings because this led to the back and forth in the stock market and also caused the NASDAQ to go up while the Dow dropped so the three companies the three big ones that moved the markets on Thursday were JPMorgan Chase Morgan Stanley and tsmc which is Taiwan semiconductor now JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley both reported a significant drop in earnings in fact both of them dropped by 28 and 29 respectively and that was obviously terrible terrible news for the stock market the stock market opened deep in the red on Thursday and the problem though is that these are Big Bank stocks and they're heavily rated in the Dow and they're very lightly weighted in the s p and NASDAQ so this is what caused the Dow to go down today but why did the NASDAQ rise well it has to do with taiwan's semiconductor they reported in excellent earnings and reported an increase in demand and that caused the NASDAQ to go up because of one single company and that was Apple because tsmc reported great earnings that led to the belief that there was high demand for Apple's cell phones because Apple cell phones use these Taiwan semiconductor chips it's all related right so people thought there would be really high demand for Apple cell phones as a result Apple stock went up over two percent and because Apple has waited about 14 percent of the NASDAQ when Apple went up it brought the whole NASDAQ up with it so that's why we saw the NASDAQ rise despite JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reporting really bad earnings and a really high producer price index and increasing mortgages and uh bad jobs number and all the bad news that came out today it was literally Apple that rose that caused the NASDAQ to go up so that's what happened today now getting into the earnings we're gonna have to watch out for on Friday we've got United Health Group we've got Wells Fargo and we've got Citibank those are going to be the big three of course we also have a lot of other smaller Banks reporting as well so if these other Banks continue to report bad earnings on Friday we can expect the Dow to continue to drop however it's really unknown what the s p and NASDAQ are going to do since we don't really have any earnings that are going to affect especially the NASDAQ on Friday now I want to get into what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Diamond said in the earnings call because Jamie Diamond is one of the longest lasting CEOs of JP Morgan Chase he's been through the 2008 financial crisis and he has a really good hand on what the economy is doing and where it might go in the future now before Jamie dimon got into his dire warning he said the U.S economy continues to grow and both the job market and consumer spending and their ability to spend remain healthy but I want to remind you that while people have money for now consumer sentiment is the lowest it's ever been and part of the problem right now is that while consumers do continue to spend as if everything was fine they are running out of savings personal savings as at almost the lowest rate it has ever been and as consumers run out of savings they're also racking up credit card debt in fact credit card debt is the highest it's ever been and as consumers run out of savings and they max out their credit cards the consumer's ability to spend is going to fall off a cliff so I don't agree with Jamie Diamond right here because because consumer spending is about to come to an abrupt halt sometime in the next few months that said I want to get into the warning Jamie Diamond said he said geopolitical tension High inflation winning consumer confidence the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and never before seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road that is a mouthful and essentially if I could just sum it all up the whole world's going to crap it's about to catch on fire Run for the hills okay not literally but that's kind of what it sounded like Jimmy Diamond was essentially saying things are okay for now but they're about to get really really bad and we're about to have a global recession now this is the same thing that everybody else has been saying this is nothing new you so this kind of warning didn't necessarily cause the stock market to go out in fear and panic we kind of already expected this but it is disheartening to see Jamie dimon who's excellent and has a really really really good Insight on the economy come out and say this uh because it's most likely going to happen and gonna be true okay that's all the bad news and I know that was a lot of bad news and the good news is the Market's holding up for now the NASDAQ is really going to start moving over the next two weeks as we get earnings from tech stocks especially and then as we get a little bit closer to the FED meeting we probably see a pretty big move in the NASDAQ as well and then of course right after the FED meets on Thursday uh in two weeks on July 28th we get the QT Q2 GDP numbers which will let us know if we are officially in a recession or not now wow we've got a lot coming up over the next few weeks with a major earnings a Fed meeting and a possible official recession number we're gonna have to keep on our toes I will be here for you the entire way giving you Market updates every single day I also wanted to let you know that on Monday evening we are going to be doing a live stream with the Larry Jones and stocks with Josh right here on on this channel so go ahead and subscribe so that you don't miss that you know I noticed last night that I lost 125 subscribers in an instant and a lot of people have been saying that YouTube has been removing subscribers so even if you subscribe to the channel in the past go check the Subscribe button and make sure you're still subscribed because for some reason YouTube has been unsubscribing people 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