Is it too late to buy? NVDA, PLTR, SMCI

요약 보기

2020~2021 EV 랠리 후 급락했던 종목(NIO, CrowdStrike, ChargePoint, JD, EVgo) 사례를 들어, AI 관련주도 2~3년 내 적정가치로 50~80% 하락할 수 있다고 주장. 엔비디아 선행PER 66, 팔란티어 74, 슈퍼마이크로 41, ARM 118로 적정가치 대비 고평가. 장기 보유는 이미 늦었지만, 공포탐욕지수 77(극단적 탐욕)과 WSB 강세 분위기를 근거로 1~3개월 단기 상승은 가능하다고 봄. 슈퍼마이크로는 S&P500 편입 후 단기 조정 가능성 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. is it too late to buy Nvidia is it too late to buy paler is it too late to buy smci over the past few months stocks like Nvidia have rallied over 700% palander is up over 200% over the past year and a half and smci is up over a th% over the past year and a half I'm stock Curry I'm a former merilin and Morgan Stanley investment banker and I've been trading for over 25 years and in my trading experience I have seen stocks like these rally so many times before in order to answer the question of whether or not it's too late to buy these stocks I want to take you back to 2021 there happen to be quite a few companies that are reporting earnings this week and by taking a look at the companies that are reporting earnings this week and looking at what those stocks did in 202 21 this is really going to help you understand what stocks like Nvidia paler and smci might do in the future and whether or not now is too late to get in this week we are getting earnings from companies like Neo crowd strike chargepoint jd.com and Evo back in 2020 and 2021 Neo rallied rapidly as major EV hype hit the stock market but eventually starting in 20121 Neo topped out and it started to fall and it's been falling ever since and today Neo is down about 90% from its highs and it's trading pretty much where it was before the rally ever began crowd strike is another stock that's reporting earnings this week and back in 2020 and 2021 it also had a rally before selling off and getting back down to where it was prior to its rally of course crowd strike has recovered and has rallied with the most recent AI hype but is this just going to be a another major top or is crowd strike going to continue to go higher another stock reporting earnings this week is charge point it also got caught up in EV hype back in 2020 and it has done nothing fall ever since those highs now trading well below where it was during the EV hype JD is another company reporting earnings this week and as you can see it also ran up in 2020 and 2021 before selling off and getting back down to where it was trading at prior to its rally and Evo is another EV stock that got caught up in the rally in 2021 but is since sold off and it's trading well below where it was prior to the EV rally what you'll notice in all of these stocks that are reporting earnings this week is they all ran up during that EV hype cycle back in 2020 and 2021 and they all eventually over two or three year period Came Crashing back down and fell back down to where they were trading prior to the EV hype cycle and this is what we are most likely going to see with a lot of the a I stocks not all of them some of the stocks like crowd strike did they might turn around and start going back up again but most of the AI stocks will fall back down to reality over the next 2 to three years this is something we've got to watch out for because it's most likely going to happen now what might cause an eventual fall on these stocks well quite simply it's the fundamental valuations you see stocks in the stock market will generally trade at a forward PE ratio of around 15 technology stocks will have very often trade at a forward PE ratio of around 20 but if we look at the forward PE ratio on Nvidia it's currently at 66 which means Nvidia is trading more than three times its Fair valuation paler trading at a forward PE ratio of 74 nearly four t times it's fair valuation and smci the most reasonable of the bunch trading at a forward PE ratio of 41 more than double its Fair valuation of course none of these stocks compared to the most egregious of them all which is arm arm is trading at a PE ratio of 1,800 and a forward PE ratio of 118 nearly six times its Fair valuation all of these stocks will eventually fall back down to their Fair valuations meaning all of these stocks are going to face a 50 to 80% decline over the next 2 to three years when that decline starts nobody knows but eventually all of these stocks are going to fall back down to Fair valuation and in fact we've already seen a few of the mega cap tech stocks starting to fall back down to Fair valuations apple is how had a pretty significant decline this year falling below a major support level on Friday Apple's forward PE ratios at 27 still leaving the stock slightly overvalued Google has also fallen and it is now back down to a fair valuation Google's forward PE ratio is at 20.34% to the question is a matter of timing will these stocks continue to go up in the short term or is this the top now I think I've pretty clearly established already that none of these stocks would make a great long-term hold is it too late to buy Nvidia or Palante or smci for a long-term hold absolutely it is way too late the time to buy all of these stocks would have been in 2022 when they were selling off like crazy it is way too late to buy the stocks for a long-term hold but is it too late to buy them for a short-term trade will they continue to go up over the next month or two or even three months and to answer that question we really have to look at Market psychology because ultimately the reason these stocks are running up so much is not the fundamentals but rather the psychology of the overall market right now there's a lot of AI hype in the market and people are buying the stocks at any price just because they think they're going to keep going up anything that has anything to do with AI is running up like crazy right now so what is the market psychology looking like right now is the market still bullish will it remain bullish well if we take a look at the CNN fear and greed index it is sitting solidly in the extreme greed stage at 77 out of 100 and this indicates that the overall Market is extremely bullish and will probably remain bull for the next couple of weeks or even months so in the short term these stocks do look like they're going to continue to rise Nvidia paler and smci are probably all going to continue to rise over the next 1 to three months but the real question is when will they top out and start going back down and the best way to answer that even though nobody really knows for sure is to take another look at Market psychology and investor sentiment and I think the best way to do that is actually to look at Wall Street bets the reason I like to look at Wall Street bets to gauge Market sentiment is because Wall Street bets is a major community of retail Traders and what they post can give you a really good idea as far as how bullish or bearish people are on the stock and right now the biggest thing I'm seeing on Wall Street bets is massive bullishness for inv such as this post here as well as this post here all showing the major gains people got for NVIDIA and everybody saying they're going to continue to buy Nvidia so Wall Street bets makes it very clear that people remain extremely bullish on Nvidia as well as the other stocks and for that reason alone these stocks are probably going to continue to rise at least in the short term what you want to watch out for are more and more posts that are bearish such as this post here in Wall Street bets where somebody's buying puts on smci now the reason smci is the only stock on Wall Street bets that people are bearish on right now is because smci just got added to the S&P 500 and historically being added to the S&P 500 is a buy the hype sell the news event for that reason a lot of people think that smci is going to sell off this week and a lot of people think that Weekly put options on smci are probably the way to go so for a shortterm trade it looks like Nvidia and paler are still bullish and they'll continue to rise on the short term smci might have a selloff this week but longer term it's still appears to be extremely bullish so for a long-term hold is it too late to buy yes absolutely the time to buy these for a long-term hold was years ago in 2022 for a short-term trade is it too late to buy these stocks no I don't think so I don't think it's too late to get in I do think that all three of these stocks will continue to rise over the next one to three months even though smci might have a small pullback and I do think all of these stocks could be extremely profitable for anybody that wants to trade them just don't hold them too long because eventually they're all going to come crashing back down to reality now if you want to know what I'm buying and selling you can join on my Discord where I've made over $20,000 in the first two months of this year I did that on a $10,000 portfolio that is a 200% profit in my portfolio in just two months if you want to know everything I'm buying and selling come join me in my Discord you can get more information about that where I post all of my trade alerts at weof doio Discord that's weof Discord