저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 세계 부채가 전례 없이 급증했기 때문에 다음 약세장(베어마켓)이 본인 생애 최악일 것이라고 경고한다. 부채 누적과 인플레이션 재발로 금리가 오르고 있으며, 2008년 위기보다 더 큰 충격이 올 수 있다고 주장한다. 연준 등 중앙은행은 경기 둔화 조짐이 보이면 다시 돈을 풀 가능성이 크다고 보며, 결국 구조조정 없이 통화 증발로 대응할 것이라고 비판한다. 1970년대 폴 볼커의 강력한 긴축(국채 금리 21%대)을 예로 들며, 현 시점에는 그런 결단을 내릴 정치인과 관료가 없다고 평가한다. 주택담보대출 등 변동금리 부문이 먼저 타격을 받고, 이후 채권 보유자와 전 국민으로 고통이 확산된다고 설명한다. 미국은 1980년대 중반 이후 채권국에서 채무국으로 전환되었고, 현재 상황은 그때보다 훨씬 나쁘며 워싱턴 정책이 상황을 매일 악화시킨다고 주장한다. 재닛 옐런 등 당국자의 '통제 중'이라는 발언은 틀렸다고 단언한다. 좋은 뉴스가 나와 중앙은행이 긴축을 완화하면 일시적 랠리가 나타날 수 있으나, 근본 문제는 해결되지 않는다고 본다. 자산별 구체적인 가격 방향·기간 예측은 없고, 전반적인 경기 침체·약세장 장기 경고에 그친다.
다듬은 글
the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in death so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple arithmetic the debt has skyrocketed everywhere it's going to lead to a problem someday and maybe today is someday if you give me a few trillion dollars I'll show you a very good time I mean you know the world economy has been flooded with money and spending since then America has never gone so deeply in debt so fast as we have done in the last decade more than a decade now 13 years so yes we're all floating on a bit of artificial stimulation it always comes to an end no matter how much you you pump into the economy it seems to be coming to an end inflation is coming back which leads to higher interest rate and some people are starting to say wait a minute this is too much debt this is absurd not everybody I mean the Japanese are still doing it but some people are starting to question how much more we can do so I'm not sure if the world has come to an end yet but I do know it's going to come to an end eventually in the form of another bear Markham and you remember 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well Adam look out the window it says 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in debt so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple arithmetic the debt is skyrocketed everywhere it's going to lead to a problem someday and maybe today is someday or maybe it's already in process given that the people in the Federal Reserve are not very smart people you know their academics and bureaucrats they mainly ought to keep their job what they will do at the first sign of some some good news and it may already be here they will start talking about and even acting on slowing down it sounds like they're going to slow down for a while because they think things are better and they may be at least on paper but eventually they're going to print money till we run out of trees that's what all they know if there's start to be a lot of bankruptcies or even a few bankruptcies they will get phone calls from people saying You must save us this is a matter of Western Civilization you must save us they will panic and they will print more money I don't think in the history of the world many central banks have said two bad guys it's time for a lot of bankruptcies go down the tubes that's not the way bureaucrats think that's not the way academics think and the end result will be not good for you and me but it might temporarily save their jobs let's go back to the last time something like this happened which was the 1970s inflation kept getting worse and worse and the central Bankers made it worse and worse but then the president who was Jimmy Carter at the time said to Paul volcker who he was going to appoint as he did appoint as head of the Federal Reserve Boca was a bureaucrat but Boca understood the situation and Carter said to Volker you do whatever you have to do and I will support you now vocal didn't believe him at first but Carter reassured him that he could do anything he had to do and in the end of course Carter lost the election because volca did right what he had to do Volker knew what had to happen I mean this will shock some people but interest rates on treasury bills short-term U.S government treasury bills went to over 21 percent that's not a typo 20 what percent on treasury bills because Volcan tightened and tightened and tight he and and Carter said okay Carter said okay well it caused bad times but it chilled inflation Carter lost the election but it did Kill inflation I don't think that there's a politician in the land today who would do that or support that and I'm not sure that many bureaucrats I don't see this guy we have now is another Paul Walker and again you know in Japan the head of the central bank has said I will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he's doing it and the Japanese politicians say do it do it do it I mean unlimited it's unbelievable how much money that guy prints but it's so he is not certainly not a Paul volkrum uh I don't think we have a Paul Walker in the U.S and eventually they will cave in most reactive are the things that react first to things like mortgages because it hits a potential home buyer that day he says oh gosh gosh look how much my monthly payments will go up if I have to take a mortgage and a floating rate mortgage a very hard it's hard to get fixed rate mortgages these days so they get hit first but then it seeps through to everybody else a bondholders start losing money and they start feeling some kind of pain and eventually all of us you know eventually it's on the evening news by the time it's evening news it's usually pretty much the end but you know uh no we all suffer you said interest rates are high well they're higher than they were a year ago but I want to hearken back to 21 treasury bills which have happened and can happen again late 1970s America as a nation was still a predator Nation if we had debts but it was on balance we were still a creditor nation which we remained until the mid 80s so there are many different things now as far as we are concerned we being the United States and our situation is much much worse and these guys in Washington are making it very much worse every day not every month every day they're making it worse well I mean it's pretty simple yes of course if the Congress cannot act that's good news for most of us because you know they they don't usually do good things for anybody except themselves no that's certainly positive positive but you know as I said if there's good news on the horizon or starts happening it the signal to the central banks hey we can ease up we don't have to be so bad for a while and that makes many people in the markets more enthusiastic and more confident and we have big rallies it always has been and I presume it always will be but Janet Yellen said he was a secretary of the treasure no no we have figured it all out don't worry we have it under control well she's got degrees from a couple of fancy Ivy League schools so if you believe her then when don't worry Washington's sorted all this out now I happen to know she's wrong and I happen to know that we will have recessions again in the world and the next one has to be very bad as I explained 2008 was a nightmare for many of us for many people since then the debt has gone up by astonishing amounts you cited some numbers before pick any numbers you want they are terrifying and is continuing to get worse every day so that next time we have a problem I mean Adam it's just simple audition uh look out the window the dead is skyrocketing everywhere so the next problem has to be very very bad and it'll be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so be the worst in your lifetime too foreign
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