저자: SashatheOptionsCoach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 지난주 테슬라(TSLA) 나비형(버터플라이) 옵션 전략이 약 52% 수익률로 성공해, 과열 후 조정을 예상한 하락 베팅이 적중했다고 복기한다. 거래 개요: 페이퍼머니 계좌에서 진행한 예시 거래로, 525달러를 투입해 약 278달러(수익률 약 52%)를 기록했다. 목표 수익률은 48%였다. 진입 근거: 주가가 176달러에서 360달러까지 두 달 만에 급등해 과열 구간이라고 판단했다. 주봉상 사실상 역대 최고가 부근의 강한 저항대라는 점도 근거로 들었다. 행사가는 약 30% 여유를 두고 설정해 시간가치 감소를 기다릴 수 있게 했다. 현재 상황: 테슬라는 최근 21포인트 하락했으며 시장 지수는 보합 수준이었다. 주가 조정은 뉴스보다 과열 해소에 따른 것이라고 설명했다. 매매 원칙: 목표 수익에 도달하면 욕심을 부리지 말고 청산하는 것이 좋다고 권고했다. 추가 수익을 노려 보유하면 다음날 급등 등으로 이익을 잃을 수 있다고 경계했다. 일부 청산 후 나머지를 보유하는 방식도 언급했다. 전략 성격: 나비형 전략은 적은 자금으로 단기 방향성 베팅을 할 때 유리하다고 설명했다. 주로 쓰는 전략으로 나비형, 콘도르, 캘린더 스프레드, 대각선 스프레드를 꼽았다. 부가 안내: 배당투자 강의, 웹사이트 뉴스레터, 향후 옵션 멤버십 출시 계획을 홍보했다. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 단기 하락 전망을 제시했으나, 영상 내 명확한 추가 목표가는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
you hey good morning Tom how you doing where are you from see if we get a few people in here before we start this session we're gonna go live in about four minutes just do a quick little trade review and recap from last week's video if you haven't had a chance to check it out it's going to be the butterfly trade idea on Tesla and that's kind of what we'll cover you hey good morning 3d lava how are you doing is it hot today alright guys we're gonna be starting the stream here in just a couple minutes I'm just gonna go ahead and record the video for you and just go over the trade idea really what we did from the previous week so that way we just get a quick little review and recap if you have any other questions or anything in the meantime feel free to just go ahead hop on ask a question and I'll do my best to answer them here before the stream starts or maybe just spend a minute or two after the stream just to answer a couple quick important questions I get kind of new to the channel feel free to check out our website there at traders fly calm there's a mailing list that you can join and when you join that mailing list you'll get some news and insights on other videos that we release live classes that we may have courses or even check out some coaching sessions one on ones that you can book if you're interested in membership plans then take a look at the members website there I had members not traders fly calm and of course if you have a just a general question that maybe is a little more detailed for youtube I really appreciate these questions much more so when people call in or just record a question by voice and that way it's more specific because as you know with trading the stock market is kind of a technical field and when you look at the technical fields it's tough to just answer these questions on comments because people write in paragraphs and paragraphs and I'd rather just make you guys a video because it's it's a lot easier it's more detailed and then from one question more than one or two people can benefit in the long run in the future so that's what would be my advice is you know start with a question if you're not the one asking the questions then you know you're holding back because this is free knowledge free education so anyways we're gonna get going here in a second I see let's see what strategies do you use the most to produce monthly income I would say butterflies aren't condors calendar spreads and diagonals I mean those are kind of the core strategies those are the the ones really you know the foundational strategies they don't really do any kind of by singles or anything like that and you're gonna see some of the strategies here as we go into it but really you know anything like butterflies calendar spreads iron condors and they might be skewed right you're not just trading them all balance there they're gonna be broken wing butterflies they might be broken wing or broken leg iron condors same thing with you know calendars you know you might convert those into diagonals as well so anyway and then about the IPOs well check out an IPO video usually I don't jump into IPOs until much later so alright let's get going let's check this out so welcome to the live stream let's see if we can get some things in focus here and we're gonna go ahead and get things started what we're gonna cover today and you could probably hear my voice it's from talking and doing the class recently so if you didn't join our class probably killed my voice a little bit but what we're gonna do is we're gonna go ahead and take a look at this options video so I went ahead and search for that video and you can take a look at this video that we're gonna go ahead and do a quick little review on so this was a butterfly train I put on about a week ago is in paper-money account just to show you an example show you kind of a trade idea to learn from and that's my whole point with doing these live streams and doing them and simulated accounts because I could show you a whole bunch of a variety of trades you know in a personal account later on what you might do is just stick to the same strategy time and time again in that case it might be boring to show those kinds of videos so that's why I do a variety of them so those of you that like a little bit more butterflies then you can go ahead and learn a little more from the butterflies those of you that like more calendars you can learn more from the calendars those of you that like more who knows back ratio spreads you can learn more from those so they all have their time in place and this is what I wanted to show you with the butterfly trade because I figured it would be a very highly successful trade and actually panned out and turned out really well I'll just show you a quick snapshot here what's going on in the whole big picture of the trade before maybe it goes against me here Tesla right now is down twenty-one points and you can see right here this trade is up it's actually went down a little sooner than I thought pulled back because I was expecting a pullback we're up about 290 dollars on when we look at the total invested it was 525 so when you look at that that's more than 50% return on investment right because you're looking at 282 over a 525 so you know I'll do a calculation here in a bit to give you the exact numbers for those of you that are very technical but in the mean time what I want you to really check out is this video if you haven't seen it I'm just gonna give you a quick overview on the whole point of that trade so really when we look at this on this trade the the whole setup was really for a bearish movement in Tesla and as you've noticed there I already had one trade on and that was more of a real account that I did a simulation on for you to show you what was gonna happen and then we broke the trade down right here and I talked a little bit more about the Vega I talked a little bit more about the market and I talked more about where does this trade fit in so it kind of really broke it down in in detail so really take a look at that and we chose a strike we chose that strike right around the 30 30 percent and that the whole point behind that 30 percent was cuz it gives it time to wiggle and pull back in that case because if I did it too tight it might have pulled back too soon and not enough time for the time decay and then we put that trade on and we were kind of shooting for you know I was guessing a 48 percent return on investment so I'll do the calculation here soon for you but when we look at this trade right now and we see what's happened you can see that Tesla sold off in a big way there was no earnings nothing like that it was just hey here's a pullback and the whole point behind putting that trade on if you watch that other video was because this stock was at very very low levels here and it bounced quite heavily so remember stocks that go up to the oonh are probably gonna come down you know this isn't free money even though some so many people love it to be or this isn't a mood money kind of scenario so you know they bounce and then they pull back and then again what happened here was this is where I saw too much euphoria it's too too much and you saw this huge gap up then you saw the stock go and then you had that initial pullback then you had the secondary emotions come in right there where other people were excited to get into the stock and I said well hey somewhere around here you know we put the trade on about a week ago because again we got another gap up and that's when you know it's getting euphoric and you can tell here by some of these red bars here those are you're a little more technical the money managers are testing things and seeing how things sell off so I kind of knew eventually you're gonna get some kind of pullback I didn't know how strong it would be but with the recent movement from here from 176 to 360 in just a couple of months that's very quick and very rapid and if you really back that trade up here let's take a look at TC 2000 it's just a little bit easier to spot just with the bars right now we're also almost at like the weeklies so if you look at the weekly chart you're almost near at all-time highs so you could see right there you know there is a little bit more higher level we could have went to but it's nearly was at those all-time highs in it very very critical resistance so that was another thing that I kind of looked at so with that being said when we put that trade on the whole point was really to profit from a downward move we put it on for 525 meaning we used five hundred and twenty-five dollars of capital and I was kind of expecting a little pullback and you know that's really what happened we're down 21 points it's just over stretch right because the market today is is not doing anything it's it's it's not even it's flat it's point negative point zero three so Tesla on its own move down doesn't matter what the news is it doesn't matter if ya cyber truck I don't know it doesn't matter what the point is the point is is when stocks get stretched it could be that you know Ellen Musk decided to build a new rocket it could be that he decided to you know he had the flu go on a radio show it doesn't matter that when stocks are stretched they're stretched so what happens here is that with this pullback you know we went in it pulled back and that's the long and the short of it and we're up about 278 so when you look at a calculator 278 divided by our margin was 525 and those words that division here 525 and you look at that that's a 52% return on investment so I was shooting for 48 and you know because in this trade example here we're looking kind of 48 or is it right here we're looking at 48 return potential and we got 52 so I was a lot like a few percent so truly apologize but hey that that's the best I could do so anyway what do you do from here so that's I guess the next step in my case these kinds of trades once they move and they move in your favour and you got what you were aiming for just take the trade off why are you going to try and be more greedy and yes it could continue because we do have more days in the trade and I could try and milk it you know get a little bit more milk from the cow get a little bit more orange juice from the orange you could try and milk it a little bit for a few more days to get more profit but the trade worked out it was successful so typically what you do is you just close that trade down and that's it you take your money and you move on that's the way the market works I find that if you try to hold the trade for too long and you try to extract more the greed plays in and this thing can actually pop the next day and then all of a sudden you kind of lose much more of your profits so that's what would be my recommendation and that's what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna put this trade in I'll just put it down a couple points or nickels there and you know put it in as a sell order close it out other people what they like to do in terms of money management strategies is they might sell half and leave the other half to ride the way you like to do it totally up to you that's my big review on this one you know and that's my the way that I handled the trade in the way that I would do these types of trades simply because you know it's a speculative butterflies are great for a quick speculative move without using a lot of cash and capital alright so let me answer a few of these questions here let's see if we can pop out the chat real quick and of course there's some people that get some comments moderated so hey Sasha do you have a video for long-term dividend investing now absolutely if you go ahead into our courses in our website so here take a look at the traders fly website right here you can see there's a ton of great pages so first off if you have a question you could go to support submit a question if you want to go to the blog and see all these videos we've posted you can check out the education section if you want to check out the products we have some ebooks you know just in my free time I work on a book here and there and and then we also do some courses so we do have a course which I made about a year or two ago it's called passive dividend investing and if you're interested in dividend investing here's kind of the course there's a sample video 37 minutes long in fact it goes through and shows you sample clips directly from the course as well so definitely check that out and I'm gonna put up even more sample videos because we just reworked the website so we'll be able to add like more sample clips and even shorter ones in the sense of you could just watch like 10 minute clips at a time because I know not everybody has like 37 minutes all at one so you might have kids you might be running you might be watching it on a break oil change at the dentist you know wherever and yeah if you're interested in dividend investing definitely check this course out and we cover a lot of things like the basics of dividend so that's 32 minutes long how dividend investing works 39 minutes long 53 minutes long basic to reading charts basic stock market terms 60 minutes dividend formulas 22 minutes finding dividend investments 42 minutes so there's so many things in there there's a directory listing they're weighing risk to reward managing a portfolio using options even in there as well registering for brokerage account portfolio examples q and some bonus and study guides and stuff like that so overall the courses 14 videos and it's about 12 hours and a 300 page study guide so check that out all the prices are there as well okay another question here that we have can you make more videos about specific stocks like what you did with uber yeah I was looking into that and just a quick question I thought about either doing it in two videos in two parts and one part would be just the fundamental side how the company is itself and the second video would be more the technical and the chart evaluation or of course I could just mix them all together and bundle them so let me know what you prefer and that way I can make videos more specific in that way so do we just focus a little more on the chart and make a separate video for the fundamental part on the company the way its functioning and that's what I was just kind of waiting for comments on that video just letting it kind of simmer and as I get more feedback on that you know you guys just let me know that's really what allows me to move forward rather than you know thumbs up thumbs down kind of thing that's all great and handy for on YouTube but ultimately good feedback is essential and so just let me know things that you know do great things not doing well and then I can improve things in the future all right the new webinar is it recorded can we go back to this later yeah this is also recorded it's gonna be posted on YouTube if you're talking about the class then the class is recorded and it'll be posted on rise to learn probably by Tuesday Wednesday at least the first session so we do post everything on there it's just you know we're doing the first class so we're figuring out the kinks as well have you tried m1 finance I've looked into it but no I I kind of do my own thing it's kind of like hey if you like your charting platform if you like the way you're trading here this and that you just stick to it right I don't usually hop around and just experiment a whole ton anymore just because you know with kids my life it's a little bit more I guess stable and maybe later on once the kids move out then I'll start experimenting with other things just because my time is limited and I would much rather give that time to you guys or doing a class I'm also looking into doing some intensive and by the word intensives I'm talking about like let's start at 8:00 or 9:00 in the morning and work till three o'clock in the afternoon and we're doing like a major two-day event to really get a topic done so these are some things I'm really looking into for some of the premium members or paid people people that are paying because then it can give one-on-one attention just I can like I can with these live sessions and so forth so anyways thank you so much for joining me I think I'll wrap it up right now and I hope you found this trade helpful as far as the Tesla review and just look at the other trade when the video is made you'll really get this trade breakdown I'll probably start doing a few more of these periodically but we'll be launching an option membership soon as well for these exact kind of things and if you're interested in that it's going to be on our members website at members traders fly comm so that's going to be coming soon we're just fixing up the last little bit of that website and for that to go out and then we'll be able to you know set up the membership and start doing the live classes for that as well so the best thing to do is get on the newsletter list if you're not on there already on the traders fly site get notified you know you can scroll down there's a few ways to get on the newsletter list I think right there there's a pop-up to sign up right there get on it and then you'll get notified as we do more and more great things all right thank you so much for joining me truly appreciate your time hope you have a wonderful wonderful week and weekend ahead and I will see you next time so take care and
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