저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 현재 경기침체가 재고 과잉에서 비롯된 것이며, 물가는 크게 꺾이고 디플레이션 위험이 인플레이션보다 크다고 주장한다. 연준의 공격적 금리인상은 과도하다고 본다. 경기 상황: 실질 GDP가 두 분기 연속 마이너스로 경기침체 국면이며, 광고주들의 대폭 삭감과 과잉 재고가 특징이다. ARK 핵심 전략은 5월 12일 장중 저점을 찍었고, 나스닥·S&P500보다 먼저 바닥을 쳤다는 점에서 전환의 초기 신호로 해석한다. 연준 정책: 연준은 역전된 수익률곡선 등 신호를 무시하고 후행지표인 CPI에 집착한다고 비판한다. 6월 75bp, 7월 75bp 인상으로 기준금리가 1.5~1.75%까지 올랐으며, 이는 1994년 이후 최대 규模의 인상이다. 우드는 연준이 결국 정책을 전환(피벗)할 것으로 본다. 디플레이션 신호: 금 가격은 2020년 8월 고점 이후 2년 박스권 하단으로 밀렸고, 구리는 1년 박스권(파운드당 4~5달러)을 이탈했다. 원유, 목재, 철광석, 운임도 하락해 공급망이 완화되고 있다고 본다. 달러지수는 20년 고점, 美 10년물 금리는 3% 아래라고 언급한다. 인플레 평가: 베이비붐 시대 볼커의 강경 대응 같은 '철퇴'는 현재 불필요하며, 향후 3~6개월 내 인플레이션의 큰 하방 서프라이즈가 나올 것이라고 예상한다. 중고차 가격도 8월 4% 하락, 연초 대비 약 50% 하락했다. 투자 및 가상자산: ARK 펀드는 2022년 상반기 큰 손실을 기록했으나 주식은 역사적으로 회복해 왔다고 보며, 연준 피벗 시 예상보다 빠른 회복이 가능하다고 본다. 비트코인은 11월 6.9만달러에서 2만 달러 초반으로 하락해 200주 이동평균(약 2.25만달러) 아래에 있다. 우드는 2030년 비트코인 130만 달러 목표를 유지한다. 출연자 전망: 우드는 시장이 연준 피벗을 기대하며 반등할 수 있으나, 피벗이 없다면 추가 하락도 가능하다고 본다. 인플레이션은 과장되었다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
well what we do um see in these earnings results is that we are in a recession and we've been calling for a recession for quite some time a lot of it based on excess inventory so we think this is an inventory-led recession and i think that's coming through loud and clear.
We're seeing advertisers cut back dramatically. We've just had two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, but a lot of people still resist the notion that we're in a recession. As inflation and interest rates went up, we faced incredible headwinds that started in February of 2021. At least so far, it looks like we bottomed on an intraday basis based on our flagship strategy on May 12th, and we actually bottomed before the Nasdaq and the S&P. The S&P broke down to new lows after that, so that was an early signal that we might be turning the corner. But to really turn the corner, the Fed does need to change its approach. It's getting all kinds of signals that it should, like an inverted yield curve, and yet I think it's paying attention to lagging indicators of inflation.
Hello everyone, my name is Wagner. According to Cathie Wood, ARK Invest CEO and CIO, the Fed is making a big mistake. She believes the Federal Reserve is making a big mistake by raising interest rates too quickly. Inflation is still a very short-term problem, and this becomes clear when investors start paying closer attention to how gold and the US dollar have been trading. She has also recently said that she believes the Fed is making a big mistake with its policy, and that we're getting all kinds of catalysts that should give the Fed a pause and a pivot. The markets are also telling us that they are making a mistake, and I think something will break if they keep following the lagging indicator called the CPI.
Apart from the fact that crypto is having its worst quarter since 2011, crypto as a whole is a much more mature market than it was back then. The S&P 500 is also down about 20% year to date, the Nasdaq is down roughly 30%, and the stock market has not seen a worse year to date since 1962.
In June, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, the most significant one-time hike since 1994. Later in July, it raised rates by another 75 basis points. The Fed's commitment to tighter monetary policy comes while inflation runs at a 40-year high, and the latest US annual inflation numbers have continued to rise. Cathie Wood would argue that the Fed should be worried about deflationary forces. "These are all kinds of deflationary signals," she said, "which are going to force the Fed to pivot and reverse its current policy." Based on what we're seeing from gold, I also think this is true. Gold actually peaked in August 2020, which many people don't know, and it's now near the low end of a two-year range, an important inflation gauge. Copper has also broken down: it broke a one-year trading range in the four-to-five-dollar-per-pound range and has come down hard. I think all of these are signals that inflation is going to come down significantly, and that we'll probably see some deflation. We've been calling for that for quite some time too.
Deflation is the opposite of inflation. With inflation, debt is borrowed today and paid back with currency tomorrow that is worth much less, which lowers the real cost of that debt, while the currency is devalued and buying power declines. Deflation works the opposite way: prices get cheaper. That sounds like a good thing, but it can lead to a negative feedback loop, where people believe products will get even cheaper if they just wait long enough. So they stop buying and wait, which decreases growth for the economy overall. That is exactly why Cathie Wood is worried about deflation. The Fed could raise rates too high and too often, causing the inflation fight to hurt the economy.
There are a few deflationary signals that could cause the Fed to pivot: the trading patterns of gold, the US dollar, yields, oil, and copper. Gold, often viewed as an inflation hedge, has stumbled below $1,070 and is down about 12% in the last three months. This trading pattern does not support the inflation narrative, Cathie would point out. Gold has been one of the most reliable inflation hedges out there, and it has broken down to the low end of its range. I think the reason for the pivot will be a massive amount of deflation in the system, and it's already here. Look at commodity prices: gold peaked in August 2020 and sits at the lower end of its two-year range, copper has broken down, oil is breaking down, lumber has crashed, iron ore as well, and freight rates suggest supply chains are loosening quite significantly. The rates are coming down, so we have deflation in the system. She also pointed out that deflation, not inflation, is the greater risk here. Cathie noted that the latest dollar strength is an even bigger sign of deflation, with the US dollar index trading at a 20-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield is below 3%, and oil has fallen more than 20% on the month. Even oil is starting to break, despite what's going on in Russia, because the global economy is in recession and demand has fallen below 2019 levels.
This also brought comments from Elon Musk, who said that if interest rates are increased yet again, prices could fall dramatically. When consumers expect prices to decline, they often delay purchases until prices are lower, decreasing overall demand. This could even affect whether people buy Teslas now or wait for EVs that may cost less. This fits with what Cathie Wood believes: that deflation is on the horizon. She said all things point to the inflation problem being overblown. "The way I describe what's going on right now: I started my career in the early 80s, when Volcker was taking a sledgehammer to inflation because it was embedded in the system after 15 years of profligate spending, the Vietnam War, the Great Society, and then going off the gold exchange standard. That sledgehammer is what he needed. I believe Chairman Powell thinks he needs the same thing, and we just don't think that's true, because we see so much deflation. And one more thing: we also see a massive inventory overhang around the world. Europe is in recession, China is effectively in recession, and here in the United States retailers are bulging with inventories that will have to be cleared with discounts. So we think we'll see some major downside surprises in inflation over the next three to six months." She also disagrees that inflation is embedded in the broader economy, and sees the inventory problem resolving within the next few months. "I really think this is more of an inventory problem," she said. "I think we could be out of this when economists finally declare that we are in a recession. That shows how bad the call has been out there. Everyone thought inflation was embedded in the economy, and that a recession was only a question mark."
ARK Invest ETFs have experienced some of the largest losses in the first two quarters of 2022. As stocks saw a broader sell-off, the ARK Innovation ETF fell 53% year to date, and everyone who bought it is also down 53% year to date. But selling out of Cathie's portfolio now might lock in a loss you never recover from. What we know from history is that stocks recover, and if the Fed pivots, they could recover much faster than expected. Unless you believe that won't happen and we'll only go down further from here.
I also want to spend a little time on crypto. Bitcoin was at $69,000 back in November and is now trading around $20,000 to $21,000. It's also just below its 200-week moving average, which sits at $22,500. Historically, rate increases have been negative for bitcoin. This year, the period during which the Fed raised its benchmark rate from near zero in March 2022 to 2.25%–2.5% in August 2022 brought a roughly 50% drop in bitcoin's price. Alphabet/Google has cautioned that layoffs may be necessary to remain more efficient. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank might raise rates further to reach its 2% inflation objective. US CPI rose to 8.5% year on year in July, and the August inflation report came in below expectations, but still well short of the Fed's 2% target. Former Bank of England rate-setting committee member David Blanchflower says this will result in a harsh landing, with rising unemployment and an economic downturn, comparable to the deflation predictions of Elon Musk and Cathie Wood.
Yet Cathie Wood believes bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. Even though prices have fallen 70% from their all-time high, there is still plenty of adoption happening behind the scenes. "We are very positive on bitcoin. We have our Big Ideas 2022, which you can find on our website, with a 2030 price target of $1.3 million. It's only $21,000 now, and we can show you the building blocks of how we get there." Cathie Wood also cited the latest data: used car prices fell 4% in August and almost 50% from the 2022 peak. That indicator once again reflects consumer demand on the downturn, which could signal that deflation is coming, or is already here.
The question is whether the Fed will be forced to pivot to avoid deflation. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and as always, please don't forget to like and subscribe for more content. Until next time.
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