저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
주식은 장기적으로 채권·금보다 우월하며(S&P500 실질 6.8% vs 채권 3.3%), 은퇴 준비자도 주식 비중을 높인 70/30~75/25 포트폴리오를 권장한다. 분산투자, 자사주매입·배당 기업 선호, 단기 시장 예측은 비추천이며 정기 매수 계획이 낫다. 50% 하락도 견디고 장기 보유해야 하며, 미국 시장을 세계 최고로 보고 AI가 생산성을 높일 가능성을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 밸류 vs 그로스 괴리는 되돌림 가능성이 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
In this video, we'll review some of the investment rules of Jeremy Siegel, one of the leading figures in the market. He was professor emeritus of finance at the Varton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and chief economist at Wisdon Tri. Siel regularly writes columns for Yahoo Finance and is a frequent guest on CNBC to analyze the market.
He is the author of the bestseller, the guide to long-term investing. Their rules can provide us with some insights for long-term stock investments. The first rule for investing is understanding that stocks are better investments than bonds and gold in the long term. Egel explains how, in the long term, the return on the American stock market, according to the S&P 500 index, has been 6.8%, considering inflation, while the average annual return on bonds has been 3.3%, creating a 3.5% premium in favor of stocks.
In the long run, stock returns outperform inflation, and according to Siel, bonds are not necessarily the best option, although they generally outperform inflation. Siel summarizes part of his teachings in one sentence: "Stocks are the most volatile asset in the short term, but the most stable and profitable in the long term." Stocks are real assets, offering rights to capital, land, factories, equipment, patents, intellectual property, and copyrights.
These assets tend to appreciate in value with inflation. Companies are generally able to raise the prices of their products or services when inflation manages to outpace inflation over time. Meanwhile, the bonds are simply pieces of paper, with promised returns in dollars. And if the dollar depreciates, you won't get any more than you would with stocks.
Regarding gold, Sejel explains that although it is a scarce precious metal, it can serve as protection against long-term inflation, but unlike companies, it does not possess inherent productivity. For these reasons, for people approaching retirement, Seegel recommends a 70/30 or 75/25 portfolio, instead of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, with a larger share in stocks.
This suggests better long- term performance, especially considering that a person's life expectancy is no longer 60 years, but closer to 90, which requires a longer-term perspective. The second rule for investing is the importance of diversifying your portfolio. Siel demonstrates that it is very important to diversify your portfolio because, for example, in periods when the S&P 500 does not perform well, such as in 2025, there are other stock markets with better returns.
For example, in Europe, some stock markets have achieved returns exceeding 15%, and some emerging markets have also achieved returns close to 20%. Therefore, diversification pays off. Furthermore, in markets like Europe, it's possible to find companies with price-to-earnings ratios around 15 times, compared to 22 and 23 times observed in the American market, which makes stocks in other markets still very attractive.
The third rule is to consider investing in shares of companies that conduct share buybacks and pay dividends. Siel explains that there are several ways in which companies can generate profits for their shareholders. One of them is to reinvest profits for the company's growth. If there is good demand for its products, the company can grow, improving sales and profits.
Another way is to return profits to shareholders, either through traditional dividends or through share buybacks that reduce the number of shares in circulation, increasing earnings per share. This last option might be the best one. A detailed analysis of their results shows that companies that pay dividends and buy back shares generally deliver better long-term returns.
The fourth rule is to recognize the difficulty of predicting the short- term market. Seel explains how, after a year with 20% gains in the index, one might expect a 0% return the following year, but this prediction is not so simple. The opposite could happen; the market could rise another 20% or even fall by 10%.
One should not attempt to predict the short-term market, as few have succeeded. It's best to have a stock purchase plan . For example, if the market falls, you should buy more shares, and if it rises, you should continue buying, but possibly a little less. Predicting is a way of reducing the benefits of long-term stock market investing.
In reality, no asset is truly guaranteed in the short term, be it real estate or gold, as their prices can fluctuate significantly in the short term, but stock returns are positive in the long term. It's important to keep in mind that stocks are assets for long-term investment. It's very difficult to predict the market in the short term, but for Siel, the breakeven point for the SP500 index should be close to 20 times earnings.
Although the profit growth of the so-called "magnificent seven" has remained between 25% and 30% per year, benefiting the index, it is possible that at certain times the technology sector cools down a bit, giving the other 493 companies room for slightly better performance, since their valuations are between 18 and 20 times.
Interesting multiples to invest in are when value stocks are trading at price-to-earnings ratios around 16 or 17 times. And when growth stocks are trading at multiples around 28 times earnings. In fact, last year, Seel even stated that, since value stocks have underperformed over the past 10 to 15 years, even trading at a 30% discount to their historical valuation, this trend may eventually reverse.
Although growth stocks have historically shown higher price-to-earnings ratios than value stocks, the difference in recent months has been abnormally large, and sometimes earnings growth expectations relative to growth stocks are too high, leading to unexpected declines. And that's another reason why it's good to diversify, both in growth stocks and value stocks in your portfolio.
According to Siel, although the so-called Magnificent Seven are trading at multiples of 30 or 35 times earnings above the market average, these multiples do not necessarily indicate that they are irrationally priced or in a bubble, since their earnings growth is well above average. These companies, known as the Magnificent Seven, achieved significant capitalization with very high profits because they are global, leaders in their sectors, and possess competitive advantages.
Therefore, there is no precedent to determine how much longer these shares can grow. These companies achieved incredible profit growth, leading to the largest historical profit differential between growth companies and so-called value companies. But if growth companies are significantly above the market average at a given time, it could be argued that growth companies are overvalued, just as if so-called value companies are below average, it could be argued that these companies are undervalued.
In fact, when comparing the current market with the 2000 bubble, it's worth remembering that back then, stocks like Cisco were trading at around 100 times earnings, and there were a good number of other companies trading at multiples even higher than 100 times earnings. Similarly, we must take into account so-called small- cap companies, which have lower multiples than so-called LAR Caps or large companies.
The fifth rule of investing is to be prepared for a 50% market drop . Seel explains that when investing in stocks, you should be prepared for a 50% market drop, and during these periods you shouldn't panic or sell so that after the storm passes you can take advantage of the recovery. It is also evident that the market can fall by 30% every 10 years, and part of their job is to convince their clients and investors to do the right thing.
But the important thing is to understand that the market is reasonably efficient in the long run. Seel argues that, despite many factors, the market tends to be efficient. This means that by indexing indices like the S&P 500, there's a good chance of obtaining acceptable returns in the long term. EEL explains how passive investing generally outperforms active investing, demonstrating that the market is reasonably efficient.
When you own stocks, you need to be aware that they can withstand tough times and that you will get excellent long-term returns, as new highs will eventually be reached. But unfortunately, many people are unable to withstand the normal downturns in the market. In bear markets, people tend to think it's the end of the world.
And this is yet another psychological phenomenon. People get depressed and think things will never get better, but history shows that they will. Due to fear, people tend to sell when stocks start to fall or sell at the bottom of the market. And when the market goes up, they buy again near the top. The sixth rule of investing is that cycles are part of the market and the capitalist system.
Siel argues that in the capitalist system, cycles come and go and are not necessarily the fault of those in power. It was to be expected that after several years of excellent returns, such as 2023 and 2024, when the S&P 500 reached all-time highs, there would be periods of correction. But investment decisions should be made in a way that they are not affected by external factors, such as variations in the Federal Reserve's interest rates , SFED.
While the Federal Reserve's decisions should be followed, it is profits that will drive stock prices in the long run. It doesn't matter much whether you buy stocks when the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates. And there are precisely those people who wait for everything to be perfect before buying stocks, and even then they never buy because they wait for the elections to pass, or for the geopolitical situation to stabilize, or they invent various excuses not to invest.
The seventh rule is that the American market is the best in the world. Despite recent market downturns, Seegel is optimistic about the US market, considering it the best market in the world with the brightest and most transcendent companies, where money wants to be, with innovation capacity and the most disruptive technology in the world.
Therefore, regardless of President Trump's mistakes or successes, the American economy has proven to be very resilient throughout history. And in the worst-case scenario, a president will last 4 years and, despite numerous decisions, the market and the economy will continue, as historically the exceptional performance of the American economy has overcome difficulties.
The eighth rule is to buy when the market is below the trend line. Someone once asked Siel if there was a better investment strategy than simply buying and holding. Seel said that by simply drawing a regression trend line on the index, which is not a valuation line, it would be possible to buy when it is below the average and sell when it is above it.
The ninth rule is that artificial intelligence has the potential to improve productivity. Eel explains that although the Dipsac problem should have meant the end of Nvidia, that didn't happen, and it's likely that artificial intelligence could boost the productivity of the American economy enough to mitigate the huge deficit, since economic growth is a way to overcome deficit problems.
If growth of 2% to 3% is achieved, the deficit problem may be less severe. We must remain vigilant, as it is still in the implementation process. In these early stages, companies will assess whether implementing artificial intelligence will improve productivity and generate significant cost savings .
The results may be worse or better than expected. However, we will have to keep an eye on whether Nvidia faces competition for its chips and whether China manages to become a significant competitor in artificial intelligence. The tenth rule is that nothing is free. Siel claims that Milton Freeman stated that in economics nothing is free and when you have a huge deficit, there are only three ways out: cut spending, increase revenue or taxes, or print money, which will lead to inflation.
But smart investing and sound investments can overcome macroeconomic difficulties. course for learning . You will also find .
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