저자: 미상 · 외국인
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비트코인이 역대 최고가 부근이며 10년 누적수익률 39,900%로 S&P500(261%), MS(10,000%)를 크게 상회한다고 제시. 2024년 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인 후 자금유입(누적 144억 달러 이상)과 암호화폐 입법 기대가 과열 신호라고 설명. 버핏·막스·드러켄밀러·다이먼의 과거 비트코인 발언을 나열하며 투기적 거품 가능성을 경고하는 구성.
다듬은 글
At a time when Bitcoin is hitting all-time highs, it's difficult to discuss the potential risks and dangers that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may face in the future. And if we consider the profitability of the last year and the accumulated profitability of the last 10 years, Bitcoin far outperforms benchmark indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, which have historically attracted the attention of investors.
Just to give you an idea of what we're talking about, Bitcoin's accumulated return over the last 10 years was 39,900%, while the SIP500 reached 261% and Microsoft shares reached 10,000%. Given this scenario and the euphoria that investors must be experiencing, it is difficult to discuss the risks and dangers of investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with such impressive returns.
But history repeats itself frequently, and just as there have been historic bubble bursts like crechedas.com or the tulip mania, the possibility that a huge bubble is currently forming with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, with unexpected consequences, cannot be ruled out. The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market exploded in 2024 when the SEC, the US entity responsible for regulating and supervising financial markets, approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs , including IBIT, offered by the renowned asset manager Black Hook, the world's largest asset manager.
This approval was a turning point in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market, allowing many people to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with greater confidence. With these ETFs, investors can gain exposure to the price of Bitcoin without having to buy it directly or store it. And this has possibly led many people to gain confidence in investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as they feel confident investing with recognized asset managers.
Furthermore, the fact that heavyweights like President Trump and Leuri Fint, CEO of BlackRock, are trading cryptocurrencies gives people some confidence to invest, but it can also lead to increased interest in the bubble, as some people need to increase their fortunes regardless of whether others get stuck in the future.
These ETFs are traded like any other asset on US stock exchanges , where even institutional investors can invest. These spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net inflows of over $14.4 billion so far this year, raising $200 million in a single day. There is also great anticipation for the so-called crypto legislation week , where alternatives for establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets will be discussed, including initiatives such as the Clarity Act, which would establish the entity that would oversee these digital currencies and the requirements for companies that operate these digital assets.
This law would help reduce regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies and consolidate a regulatory framework to protect investors in these assets. The launch of these ETFs caused Bitcoin trading volumes to increase tremendously, possibly leading the price of these digital currencies to reach a valuation that some consider irrational and with several signs of being a speculative bubble.
To delve deeper into the reasons behind this statement, we will review the opinions of several market leaders, highly regarded individuals in the investment world who have managed to weather major stock market crashes and achieve profitability for decades. Specifically, we will review the opinions of the great Warren Buffett, the greatest investor in history, Stanley Kemiller, the man who has surpassed Buffett in recent years, Rard Marques, one of the best investors in history, and Jade Mon, the most important banker in the world.
Let's start by discussing the opinion of BF, undoubtedly the greatest investor in history. One of his first statements about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies dates back to 2014, when the renowned bfett declared in an interview with CNBC, " Stay away from it." It's basically a mirage . Four years later, in 2018, BF was again interviewed by the same news outlet, stating about cryptocurrencies that Bitcoin is probably rat poison squared.
Furthermore, in that same year, he stated that cryptocurrencies no longer produce anything and have no intrinsic value. He even went so far as to say that trading cryptocurrencies is simply insanity. A year later, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in May 2019, he addressed cryptocurrencies again, stating: "You see a gambling device.
There are many scams associated with it. There have been disappearances, so a lot of money has been lost. Bitcoin hasn't produced anything." Later, in 2020, when questioned again about these assets, he maintained his position, reiterating that he preferred to invest in productive assets. His last major statements about Bitcoin were in 2022, when he stated again: "If you told me you owned all the Bitcoin in the world and offered it to me for $5, I wouldn't accept it." He argued that cryptocurrencies have no utility and produce nothing tangible, unlike businesses, land, or productive assets.
His last statements in 2023 were not his own, but rather those of his renowned partner Charlie Munger, who shortly before his death stated that the cryptocurrency craze was a collective delusion. Although Bichet's opinions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been scarce recently and quite brief in the past , it's clear that Bichet doesn't view Bitcoin and crypto assets favorably.
He essentially considers them unproductive assets, with no intrinsic value and whose value is driven primarily by speculation. They are bought in the hope of appreciation, without considering the benefits they may offer to society or to the holders of these currencies. Therefore, at this point, there are a few questions that it would be interesting for some to dare to answer in the comments.
Why does the greatest investor in history have such an adverse opinion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? Why doesn't the world's largest investor have a significant position in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolio? Why hasn't the BFE made any statements about cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, either for or against, in the last two years?
The second opinion we will analyze is that of Howard Marques, founder and co-chairman of Trey Capital Management, one of the largest funds in the world. He has a net worth of $2.2 billion and is known for predicting the bursting of some of the most significant financial bubbles in history. He was able to predict both the bursting of the poncom bubble in 2000 and the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubble in 2007.
In 2017, Marx stated that he considered cryptocurrencies a baseless passing fad. Explaining how the enthusiasm for Bitcoin could be a speculative bubble, he went so far as to claim that cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, even buying them along with tulips and other historical bubbles. In 2021, Marques stated in an interview with Bloomberg, "I learned that many people believe Bitcoin has real value." This is also how fiat currencies work.
But on the other hand, he also expressed: "Fortunately, my skepticism about Bitcoin didn't stop my son from buying it. My son is much more open to these things." In recent years, Marques has been somewhat more cautious, preferring cash flow assets and acknowledging that Bitcoin can play a role as a speculative asset with perceived value.
But in his latest letter, Marques believes that Bitcoin's 465% appreciation over the past 2 years is a sign for caution. Furthermore, we cannot forget that his last letter to the shareholders of his fund, published at the beginning of the year, was titled "bubble watch" . Marques recalled the emergence of recent bubbles and their characteristics.
Bubbles are characterized by states of mind in which there is not only a rapid increase in the value of assets, but also an extremely irrational exuberance, with absolute adoration for an asset, with the belief that these assets cannot fail. Accompanied by fear of missing out on the appreciation of these assets and not being left behind by the herd trend of buying to take advantage of the rapid appreciation.
In bubbles. According to Marques, asset prices are not very high, and it has been observed that colleagues or family members own these assets, which are then appreciating in value. Therefore, there is no maximum price at which they should be purchased. Marques pointed out that there is nothing more disturbing to people's mental well-being than seeing a friend become wealthy while you are unable to continue in the business.
For Marques, identifying bubbles requires more than just considering asset valuations. but also psychological criteria. Hearing that the price isn't too high, or that even if it is, it hasn't reached that point yet, is a clear sign that a bubble is forming. The big questions at this moment, based on Marx's view, are: given the tremendous appreciation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, is one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history forming?
On the other hand, given the characteristics of the current market, where prices are not high enough to buy Bitcoin, the bubble is growing. Could it be that many people are buying Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies without realizing that the asset may be overvalued? The third position we will analyze is that of the great Stanley Kemiler, considered by some to be the best investor of recent years.
While BFE achieved an average return of 20% per year over 50 years, Druck Miller achieved no less than a 30% average annual return over 29 years of management, without a single year of losses. In a 2020 interview with CNBC, Mr. Druck Miller confirmed that he owned Bitcoin and that he held some value in it as a safe haven instead of gold, stating that Bitcoin could be a very attractive asset class as a store of value.
In a 2021 podcast, he described the sound as somewhat like a dinosaur, but he owns Bitcoin because it's a brand. Along the same lines, he acknowledged that new generations trust Bitcoin more than gold and recognized that it has brand power and an important narrative behind it. In 2022, he stated again in an interview with CNBC that if the Silf Fed loses control of inflation, Bitcoin will become very attractive.
In a 2023 conference interview, he admitted to selling Bitcoin but acknowledged that he regretted not keeping it. He also maintained his positive view of its long-term potential. In early 2024, he reiterated that Bitcoin remains attractive as a scarce asset in a world with expansionary monetary policies .
After analyzing the position of the great Druckemeler, some things become evident. Although he doesn't hold as negative a view of Bitcoin as the BFE, it's also unclear whether he attributes intrinsic value to it or sees it as a store of value due to the lack of credibility of central banks and fiat currencies.
But perhaps the most important question is... Cidro Kemiler, who has historically proven himself to be an investor and speculator, believes that Bitcoin has value as a reserve currency, so why doesn't he have significant investments in this asset? Or do we not know them? Or is the great Druemiler waiting for a major correction in the price of Bitcoin before taking positions?
The last opinion on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that we will analyze is that of Jamon, the most important banker in the world and president of JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States. In 2017, Dmon declared at a conference organized by CNBC that Bitcoin is a fraud. It's worse than tulip bulbs.
This won't end well. He went further, stating: "If we had a trader operating with Bitcoin, I would fire him on the spot." In 2021, he referred to Bitcoin again, claiming it was useless and worthless, stating that it had no intrinsic value and was an inflated fraud. In 2023, at a hearing in the United States Senate, he stated that if he were the government, he would shut it down and that its use was for money laundering and illicit activities.
In 2024, Dmon stated at the World Economic Forum that he would no longer talk about Bitcoin and compared it to smoking, expressing that he did not believe people should get involved, but acknowledged that people have the right and freedom to do so. In 2025, due to client pressure on a one-day announcement to investors at JP Morgan, he announced that the bank's clients could buy Bitcoin, but clarified that this would be without custody.
He reiterated that, while people shouldn't smoke, he defends the rights and freedoms of those who wish to do so. However, he remains concerned about the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering, human trafficking, and criminal payments. He is also concerned about excessive leverage in operations.
Finally, and in conclusion, although everyone has their own opinion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, it is quite strange that perhaps those with the best track records in the investment world do not have such a positive opinion, and only a few see them more as speculation than as an investment. course for investing in stocks. You will also find .
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