AMC Stock - Reacting To What Ken Griffin Just Said

요약 보기

켄 그리핀(시타델 증권 CEO) 발언을 중심으로 연준 테이퍼링 시점과 AMC 공매도 스퀴즈 상황을 해석한 영상으로, 결론은 시장 흐름상 자금이 기술주에서 경기순환주로 옮겨갈 수 있다는 것이다. 그리핀 발언 요지: 연준은 물가 안정과 완전고용의 이중 책무를 지니며, 현재 물가 상승률 5%는 매우 높고 고용은 완전고용에 한참 못 미쳐 난처한 상황이다. 그리핀은 정부의 규제·재정정책을 연준이 통제할 수 없다고 언급했다. 진행자는 그리핀이 테이퍼링 필요성에 동의하지 않는 듯한 점을 시장 컨센서스와의 차이로 짚었다. 다만 연준은 7월 이후 테이퍼링을 예고했고 고용 지표를 보며 속도를 조절할 것이라고 설명했다. 시장 현황 분석: 기술주 중심으로 하락이 이어지고 있으며, 헤지펀드의 주요 보유 종목(아마존, 테슬라, 페이스북, 구글, 애플, 마이크로소프트, 페이팔, 엔비디아, 시스코 등)이 손실을 보고 있다고 언급했다. 진행자는 현재 통화정책이 시타델에 유리하게 작동하지만 오래가지 않을 것이라고 봤다. 자금이 기술주(빨간색)에서 경기순환주, 에너지, 유틸리티, 소재(초록색)로 이동할 것으로 전망했으며, 3.5조 달러 규모 인프라 법안을 언급했다. 헤지펀드 고객들이 손실 회복을 요구하며 포지션 정리를 압박할 수 있다고 봤다. AMC 관련: 영화 흥행 지표와 소매 플랫폼 이탈이 없다는 점에서 펀더멘털이 개선되고 있다고 평가했고, 공매도가 많은 AMC 등 밈주식에서 헤지펀드가 큰 손실을 보고 있다고 주장했다. 진행자는 상황이 빠르게 전개될 수 있으니 인내심을 가지라고 조언했다. 리스크: 연준 정책과 시장 흐름이 빠르게 바뀔 수 있다는 점을 전제로 했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. citadel securities ceo ken griffin is actually talking on the economic club of chicago and i cut up an interesting footage of you know a question he had to answer and when you read in between the lines of what he said i mean really interesting because when you're really watching the lines it has something to do with the whole amc and the meme stock squeeze situation so let us hear first what he has to say and then we're going to react afterwards so here we go folks the monetary policy that the fed has pursued and is pursuing you're fine with you're aware that there are people who think they should have started to taper asset purchases long ago and that the next meeting is far too late and that we should be talking about normal the path to normalization for interest rates so i'm going to tell you it is a job that i would be so happy not to have it just so happens you don't have it and i'm so grateful i don't have that job it's a no-win job right now the fed has a dual mandate of price stability and and managing to have us at full employment that is the only mandate of the fed price stability in full employment and let's be clear right now we don't have price stability inflation at five percent is is amongst the highest numbers that many in this room have ever seen in their lifetime and the bed is its transitory that's a big bat but we're nowhere near full employment either so the fed's in a really tough box and the challenge is the fed has to take the regulatory and fiscal policies of washington as a given they can't influence those policies and to the extent that those policies are working against what the fed's trying to accomplish they are really in no man's land in terms of a struggle all right folks there you have it so i don't know if you really caught it but the really interesting part is at the very beginning when where was asked what are his views around the monetary policy that the fed is actually taking now or is to take but he said yes he is when this is really contrarian to the whole other consensus of the market where people are not only pressing on the fed to actually start reducing the amount of money they're stimulating into the market but they will start doing that gradually when it comes november and ken griffin is saying well i don't think it's time to do it now and even though the points he brings up are very very good points because you know as i mentioned of my post analysis market videos well i do and i know this week we do have numbers coming on the job market and since july the fed said that we are going to topper but we are also going to start to keep looking at how the job market evolves because if we feel like the growth is not there yet it's not strong yet or strong enough then we will not really be aggressive on the tapering situation so even though this is really good points and fair points you know i think when you try to relate this and cover this with amc stuck in the whole short squeeze situation and the manipulation going on well guys i wanted to look at a picture this is the market state as we had it today i mean i'm gonna share this because i totally all right here we go so this is the market state today and um look everything red it's really the tech sector and remind i don't remember but most of the holdings of citadel and the biggest hedge funds here in america are with amazon and tesla and facebook and google and apple and microsoft and paypal and all of these you know tech sector the nvidia cisco deneo these are the favorites stocks held by hedge funds so the very fact that we had a pullback a continuous a continuous pullback on this sector on these stocks it's a really bad thing for the hedges right now because they are losing a ton of money on these positions so if the fed doesn't increases does it increase um rates well it it continues to to work in the favor of such high banks because of the liquidity because they can still you know have some liquidity they can still get extended to the margins because they are only already losing tons of money on these stocks but also losing ton of money on amc and the other highly shorted stocks but especially emc because so far i mean the fundamentals keep getting better and better and better improving especially with the box office numbers that we got this weekend but not only that the retailers are not leaving apps are not leaving so it's kind of accommodating for citadel to have the monetary policy as it is right now but i don't think this is something that can last any longer because at the point the money is getting shifted from the tech sector to where we have the green sector the cyclicals the energy the utilities the materials especially with the 3.5 trillion dollar infrastructure bill i mean guys at a point and i mentioned this multiple times at the point the clients are going to pick up the phone and say hey kenny boy depending on the last report you sent us on september i mean i am not feeling this i need to get my money rewrote it i need to get my money reinvested where i can start making some damn money because for the last months i've been losing a ton of money and what about this whole amc thing so think i mean things are getting really hit and hot for see that right now so from the market's perspective from the short squeeze on amc so definitely guys be patient as things might unfold very quickly here so