저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 급락 후 매수 기회를 노릴 시점이지만, 분할 매수가 필수이며 이익 실현과 리스크 관리가 우선이라는 입장. 시장 심리: 최근 신규 투자자들은 하락장 경험이 없어 저점 매수(딥바잉)와 레버리지·콜옵션 투자에 의존하고 있으며, 하락이 길어지면 큰 손실로 이어질 수 있다고 경고. 계절성: 역사적으로 9월 하순~10월 초 약세가 반복되며, 23년 통계상 이 시기 시장은 약했다. 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 7.8% 하락했지만 의미 있는 저점은 이달 말 이후에나 나올 것으로 전망. 유가·인플레이션: 유가가 배럴당 77달러로 너무 높아 인플레이션 우려를 키우고 있으며, 유가가 내려가면 주가 지수가 크게 오를 수 있다고 봄. 셰일 기업들의 자본 규율로 원유·천연가스 공급이 부족하며, 북동부 주의 파이프라인 반대로 인프라도 부족. 페이스북(메타): 내부 메모 유출 등 헤드라인 리스크가 커져 오랫동안 보유한 주식을 매도하고 더 나은 기회로 옮기겠다고 언급. 기술주 전반은 과도한 IPO 공급과 이익 실현 매물로 압박을 받으며, 좋은 기업은 회복하겠지만 IPO 철회가 나와야 바닥이 형성될 것으로 봄. 정책: 바이든 행정부와 의회의 부채한도·인프라 법안 교착, 대만 상공 중국 군용기 비행 등 워싱턴의 불확실성을 우려. 전략: 하락 시 과매도 반등 가능성을 염두에 두되 한꺼번에 매수하지 말고 점진적으로 매수하라는 조언. 출연자 콜 응답: 오라클은 시장 평가가 좋고 클라우드 성과가 양호하다고 평가. IBM 분사 계획과 GE 주식 병합에 대한 평가도 언급. 출연자 전망: 금요일의 좋은 뉴스는 잊혀졌지만 내일은 새로운 날이라며 단기 변동성에 대해 신중하지만 낙관적 태도 유지.
다듬은 글
remember friday when we're all excited about merck's new kova drug that i told you this market has the memory of a monarch butterfly so be careful i was too generous monarch butterflies at least know how to find their way to southern mexico before they die this market's more like a lanternfly it eats your money and it looks like investors sense their duty and their duty is to kill it that's how i felt today with the dow losing 324 points sme sinking 1.3 but the hashtag tumbling 2.14 where all the damage was now here's a point worth remembering though as we go lower the easier it is to go bargain hunting but of course you still need to be careful so what made this market so tough today first it's been so easy to make money and stocks for so long that lots of people forgot how to handle a sell-off and there's lots of new investors suddenly who went out before they give up their gains we forgot that there's a downside to the increasing democratization of the stock market we hear about all the time or to put it another way democratization is an accelerant when stocks are going higher it's fabulous the new investors are thrilled they endlessly buy the dips or borrow money to do so buy call options because dip buying always seems to work but when stocks go down and then don't bounce well that's another story these people are now learning that a decline isn't necessarily a viable dip it can be a draconian punishment that wipes out traders who bought stocks on margin or bought calls expecting an imminent bounce for nearly a year and a half we had a raging bull market taught new investors that only idiots so whenever i preach about taking some profits stand in practice for my chapel trust i meet younger investors who school me about how foolish profit taking could be i'd explain that i simply didn't want people to give back gains there's nothing worse than turning game to laws but they told me i was too old to l and to listen to i that i didn't understand the movement that it was time for me to retire i heard that endlessly nobody wanted to hear about the virtues of profit taking or the need for discipline making it so that you have some money left if the market goes down we had a new market they told me a better market my old ways would make it harder for people to try to make money i was keeping people in their chains now i practically beg people to realize that this was not a new market it was the same old market and eventually there'd be a reckoning because well there's always a reckoning i even gave you a time frame historically the market tends to swoon in the second half of september and that weakness carries into the first couple of weeks of october and that's why larry williams the greatest technician of our time told us the smart move was to sell around september 17th sure you could see temporary blips up like we had last friday you know what i expected another this week now that we're down 78 on the nasdaq that's right 78 for the high that's a pretty decent size decline but i bet we don't find an investable level until later this month that's what history tells us this negative call wasn't rocket science although maybe we need a new term now that even william shatner's flying rockets these days real ones it was simply a function of how the markets typically performed during this period of the calendar for the last 23 years that's right 23 years of course these new investors would have none of it they assumed i was operating in bad faith trying to keep them from making money that one really did take me by surprise i've managed money and been writing about it for 40 years with the latest being the cnbc investor club my goal has always been the same i'm trying to help you make the most amount of money with the least amount of risk i don't want your money i don't take your money i don't want i want you to get rich carefully right now there remains plenty of risk although with the nasdaq bruised and the overall market down five percent from the highs i'm not trying to tell you oh here comes the sell-off we can start looking for buying opportunities on the way down but we have to buy stocks gradually on the way down because if you just jump in on every dip then you're going to get slaughtered beyond the disillusioned dip buyers we got a second problem the seemingly endless oil rally if not for the longest time the bull market and oil was a terrific sign of strength we didn't have to worry about economic weakness if we saw the price of crew going higher but this is one of those practical jokes that the market plays on us higher oil is great for the stock market as long as it doesn't go too high at which point it drags down everything and with oil now 77 dollars a barrel that's too high it means we're in an inflationary nightmare scenario of course it's not just oil it's also natural gas for the better part of a decade we've had an oil and gas glut in this country we're producing more of this stuff than we know what to do with every time prices went up the oil producers would spend a fortune on drilling much more than they even had to spend and new supply would push us right back down last year though these companies finally got religion they stopped spending beyond their means they got disciplined about keeping production low and that's why their stocks have been on fire now they're no longer drilling like crazy with borrowed money that means much less oil and much less natural gas which comes to the surface when you drill for oil so sadly these fossil fuels are in short supply we don't even have the pipeline infrastructure to get this stuff to where it's needed northeastern states have killed five pipelines in the last few years which is why so much natural gas remains stuck in ohio and western pennsylvania lincoln said it more easily overseas than we can to boston long story short when we see oil this high we're now petrified by inflation warriors and meanwhile there there's been strong inflation for months but nobody really cared until it started hitting gas prices of course the flip side here is that if oil pulls back the averages will roar again while you see the bear mauling you have to believe that the combinations won't hit all-time highs as they did today every single day don't extrapolate every negative trend you wouldn't do it for the positives third problem with the market tech is just out of this world bad for all kinds of reasons facebook's become a corporate prior they can even keep can't even keep its own site running i defended facebook for it's excellent work helping small business and it's still doing that and doing a great job but those leaked memos did take my breath away last week i interviewed salesforce mark benioff at a corporate governance conference i i threw and i asked him how he would fix facebook if he had the chance betty f told me there's two two kinds of companies those who believe in the truth and those who believe in power he thinks being a single source of truth is what matters and that safety should be paramount clearly according to the memos facebook disagrees now my charitable trust has owned the stock forever we are up huge in this thing but i think it's time to let facebook go they're better opportunities so check your investing club boltons for more it'd be hard to part with it i mean i created fang and that was the f but it's not just headline risk anymore as for the rest of tech it's seen tremendous profit taking after tremendous just profit-taking and that's what just happens there's nothing wrong but profit-taking and you know why this is happening as i said repeatedly we've got too much supply lately we've had a huge wave of ipos and most of these companies are about digitizing something or other they're they've all started to blur together which weighs down the entire tech edifice until the ipo market slows to a crawl tech will remain under pressure if deals get pulled the good ones like salesforce will come right back right back to life but deals need to get pulled every day i come to work unless post nine near at nicey every day i see more companies coming home finally there's is washington and the world washington's a nightmare president biden and his allies on the hill seem incapable pulling anything off don't they from the debt ceiling extension to the infrastructure bill the chinese keep flying over taiwan's airspace no one's doing anything about it against all these is mark's covert bill against all of us it's good to start and getting covered under control is incredibly important even for inflation i think if stocks come down we could be due for an oversold bounce nothing like lower stock prices to make the market more attractive plus if oil prices ever go down all the averages will explode higher let me give you the bottom line this market's already forgotten friday's good news because of this but i mean everyone suddenly realizes it's a tough market i say tomorrow's a brand new day maybe you'll forget this ugly session too nothing would shock me at this point now we're about to get into one of my favorite parts of the show and that's getting to talk to you create america last week we launched an exciting initiative it's called the cnbc investing club this is an opportunity to get daily emails from yours truly center bunch today you'll be able to see exactly how i'm investing in my travel trust and yet like for instance selling the facebook and yes i'll also tell you when i screw up and how it went wrong like i bought some other stocks too soon total transparency join my mailing list by going to cnbc.com investing club or scan the qr code which will take you right there club skill interactive influenced by you let's hear what's on your mind let's go to jack in pennsylvania jack booyah from allentown pennsylvania jim how are you this evening well i was in allentown this weekend uh on the way to the eagles game and maybe uh wish i'd stay there frankly what's going on jim i'd like to get your take on one of my favorite turnaround companies and i think it's one of yours too ge um kim what are your thoughts on the reverse stock split and also the purchase of bk medical well bk medical shows they play office reverse stock split i wasn't sure whether that was necessarily the right thing to do i know they felt they had too many shares but i believe in larry cope it's just it's going to take a long time because they need boeing they need aerospace they need covert under control a lot of things they need i think they'll get them but not that quickly how about steve in new jersey please steve hey how's it going jen oh it's going okay steve how about you i'm holding tight yep i uh have a question about my uh well oracle it's my single largest stock position and you know i've noticed that several uh analysts have slipped through the ratings and reduced their rating right right i thought maybe i can you know get some input on this stuff no i i don't i think i happen to think that oracle is incredibly well run uh i don't think there's anything exciting i don't think there's anything boring i do prefer dell over oracle but they've had a series of quarters that make me feel like oracle is just doing quite well in the cloud and no one's talking about it all right friday's good news i already forgotten by the market but tomorrow's a new day maybe they forget today's pain wouldn't shock me these downside of democracy is really being with us i say don't get too neg good a bear that's a picture of a bear don't get too bearish oh man money tonight i was zip looking i was never an arts big blue is gearing up for some big changes i like that company it's a year after the company announces breakup plans i'll check them in the ceo of ibm get the latest on what these changes mean for the bottom line could a dash of mccormick maybe spice up your portfolio down 15 i'd say so but let's speak to the ceo on what's known as national taco day and after its recent report paychecks has rebounded to just below its all-time highs what a move it just had i'm gonna get a read of employment and the stock with the ceo so stay with kramer
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