저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 시프는 4월 CPI가 기대에 부합한 것을 두고 인플레이션이 여전히 고착화되어 있으며 연준이 패배하고 있어 금에 강세 요인이라고 주장한다. 미국 CPI 발표 내용: 4월 CPI 전월 대비 0.4%(예상 0.4%, 3월 0.1%), 전년 대비 4.9%로 예상 5.0%보다 소폭 낮게 나왔다. 근원 CPI 전년 대비 5.5%(예상 5.5%, 전월 5.6%)로 기대와 같았다. 시장 반응: 발표 직후 다우 선물 200포인트 이상 상승, 금 온스당 10~12달러 상승, 비트코인 상승, 채권 강세(금리 하락)가 나타났으나 이후 다우는 하락 전환 후 소폭 마감, 나스닥은 1% 이상 상승(기술주 강세), S&P500은 약 0.5% 상승했다. 시프의 금 관련 주장: 인플레이션이 높을수록 금에 유리하다. 시장은 낮은 인플레이션을 금리 인하 가능성으로 연결해 금에 악재로 보지만 이는 잘못된 해석이다. 따라서 금이 인플레 우려로 급락할 때가 매수 기회라고 본다. 금 방향 예측: 상승(중기 전망, 명시적 기간 없음). 인플레이션 전망: 인플레는 고착화되어 있고 2% 목표에 근접하지 않으며 연준이 지금까지 한 조치로는 곡선을 꺾지 못한다. 악화될 것이라고 주장한다. 미국 채권·금리: 금리 인하 기대는 잘못된 것이며 금리는 높게 유지될 가능성이 있다는 취지(명시적 수치 예측은 없음). 정책 비판: 1990년대 초 CPI 산출 방식 변경과 이후 조정이 물가 수치를 낮게 만들었다고 주장한다. 닉슨의 임금·물가 통제(1970년대, 4% 초과 시점 도입)를 언급하며 현재 5%도 심각하다고 본다. 글로벌 관점: 세계 중앙은행들이 같은 실수를 했고 정부 지출과 통화 발행, 저금리 신용이 결합돼 전 세계적 인플레 문제라고 진단한다. 리스크: 정부 발표 수치 신뢰도 문제, 연준의 정책 실패 가능성, 글로벌 확산 위험.
다듬은 글
inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation is everywhere I don't care if it's five nine six one six five five I want to start by talking about the inflation numbers that were released earlier today we got the April CPI that came out and you know they've been talking about this number all week right everybody is waiting on pins and needles for this government report card on inflation and as I've said many many times you know you don't want your kids to grade their own report card that's why you don't want the government coming up with the inflation numbers because it really is a report on the economy and the government is fudging the numbers and of course you know the government doesn't have to cheat they don't have to lie the CPI does that for them it's not like the CPI comes out with a high number and then they they lie about it and they report a lower number they don't have to do that the way the CP CPI was engineered it was designed to come out with a low number so they don't have to cheat the CPI does that all by itself because they already rigged it uh when they fixed it in uh the early 1990s with the Boston commission and they you know they tweaked it since the initial fix uh to uh rig it even more but anyway be that as it may the markets still pay attention to this number because the FED pays attention to this number and everybody wants to figure out what the fed's going to do and so they look at the numbers that the FED claims it pays attention to and of course uh the media pays attention to the CPI as well and so the markets were looking for the CPI and everybody is looking for some indication that inflation is coming down despite the fact that all the evidence is that it's not even though it is not as high as it once was at one point we were looking at nine percent year over year and now we're just looking at five but five is still a high number five is way above the two percent Target and for those of you who don't recall when Nixon imposed wage and price controls back in the 1970s the initial controls went in when inflation was above four percent they didn't wait for it to be you know double-digit it was four percent when they were panicking well we're well above that now notice so to say that five percent represents some type of success because it's not nine uh is completely wrong you know even if you forget about the fact that if the government says five it's actually ten five is bad enough even if it was only that bad and it's nowhere near the the two percent Target but in any event the markets are just looking for this number because what they're hoping is that the FED will pause officially or start cutting raids because they can declare victory in their war against inflation so the expectation was for a point four percent increase in prices in April now that's against a point one percent increase in March so if the FED we're making progress why would that number be going up and in fact a point four percent increase in a single month that's a big jump that's nothing to brag about annualize that that's a high number anyway the number came out exactly as expected 0.4 however the good news that the markets initially seized on was that the year-over-year number which was expected to be 5.0 came out at 4.9 now to me there's probably a rounding error in there I don't even think there's a difference between 5 and 4.9 but now there's no five handle all of a sudden they're saying hey we got a four handle on the CPI and the markets like this oh yes we're making progress we're at 4.9 that was the only bit of good news in this report because everything else was exactly as expected the core ex food and energy was up 0.4 again taken on its own that's still a big number uh you know when you multiply it by 12 to annualize it and year over year core was 5.5 that was what they expected now it was slightly better than the 5.6 from the prior month but that hardly indicates that the FED is any closer to two percent the initial reaction to What was perceived as better than expected inflation news meaning lower number gold rallied again why gold is an inflation hedge so gold should rally when inflation is higher than expected not not lower but in the perverse world that we live in everybody is focusing on the FED lower inflation means the FED can cut rates sooner and that's perceived as being good for gold higher inflation means they can't cut rates and that's supposed to be bad for gold the reality is high inflation is better for gold because gold is an inflation hedge and what high inflation shows you is not that the FED is going to have to fight harder to win it shows you that the FED is losing the fight against inflation and that is bullish for gold so Traders still have this whole thing wrong that's why whenever you see a sell-off in the price of gold on hotter than expected inflation numbers you want to buy into that dip but anyway when this number came out the markets were initially excited as soon as we got that 4.9 handle or poor handle the s p jump the Dow futures were up better than 200.
gold rose 10 12 an ounce you know Bitcoin jump too everything was up everybody that was excited and bonds Rose yields fell down because the knee-jerk reaction was oh this is good now of course from my perspective it isn't good because it doesn't prove anything this wasn't a meaningful Improvement in the numbers and I think after the investors had a little bit more time to think about it they kind of came around to potentially that position and then the market sold off the Dow was down 200 points at one point uh in early in the morning so it lost those gains but by the end of the day the Dow was down only slightly but the NASDAQ was up better than one percent tech stocks surged uh well I mean one percent but that's still a big move uh the s p was up about half a percent so the markets concluded that this is good news uh because it means that the FED is going to be able to start cutting rates sooner because they're winning the battle on inflation well again the reality is the numbers show that the FED is losing we're not just these numbers all the numbers I went over on my last podcast that have nothing to do with the CPI but all prove that inflation is is is entrenched that it is not going away it's not getting anywhere near to near two percent and nothing that the FED has done thus far is going to bend this curve that inflation is here it's going to get worse and and it's not just in the United States this is a global problem because central banks all around the world have made the same mistake and they have enabled governments to profitably spend money and as a result of all this extra spending and all this money Printing and all this easy credit the world is dealing with an inflation
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