저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 소수 집중투자와 강한 확신을 강조하며, 장기 현금흐름이 예측 가능한 고품질 기업에 투자하는 철학을 설명한다. 투자 철학: 핵심 기준은 단순하고 예측 가능한 잉여현금흐름을 창출하는 기업의 품질이다. 현금흐름을 예측할 수 없으면 가치를 알 수 없어 투자하지 않는다는 입장이다. 저평가 판단: 가격과 가치 사이에 큰 괴리가 있을 때(예: 1달러 가치 자산을 50센트에 매수) 왜 할인 거래되는지 분석하고, 경영 개선 등으로 괴리를 좁힐 수 있는지 검토한다. 리서치 사례: 2008년 금융위기 때 Wachovia 사례에서 10-K 분석 등 약 4시간의 작업으로 지주회사 가치를 주당 11~14달러로 추정해 대량 매수했다고 회고한다. 포트폴리오 운용: 보유 종목을 10개 안팎으로 집중하며, 평균 보유기간은 4~5년이다. 분산투자보다 최고의 아이디어에 집중하는 것이 장기 고수익에 유리하다고 본다. 확신과 오만의 차이: 반대 매매(contrarian)를 하려면 충분한 확신이 필요하지만, 새로운 사실이 나오면 겸손하게 논리를 수정해야 한다고 강조한다. JCPenney와 General Growth 사례를 언급한다. 지역 선택: 미국과 캐나다 중심으로 투자하며, 언어·법제도·지리적 접근성이 좋은 시장을 선호한다. 인재 채용: 전통적 금융 배경 외에도 인품이 좋은 인재를 채용하는 방식을 소개한다. 시장 전망이나 특정 자산의 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
and there's a difference between arrogance and confidence yeah if you're arrogant in investing you're going to get killed right if you're not confident you'll never make an investment right so you have to do a sufficient amount of work to be confident enough to have the conviction do something that's contrarian Bill Eckman is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management many experts consider the young investor to be the next Warren Buffett you Ackman gain Fame for his successful short of mbia and his Rescue of General growth during the financial crisis like Warren Buffett Ackman gained a great reputation for outsmarting the market Ackman and his fun pushing Square Capital Management have generated 17 annualized returns since the fund launched in 2004 so what long-term investors can learn from him let's get unlocking!
So talk to us about the Bill Ackman strategy or that mental checklist that you go through before deciding to go longer shorter position but what what's the checklist you kind of go through so we look for very high quality businesses what we describe as simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that Warren Buffett would describe as having a boat around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything Financial is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life we need to know how much cash is going to generate over its life so it's a business quality to us is the single most important uh Criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know it's worth we don't know what it's worth we can't invest we figure out what it's worth figure out how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a Spirits company or a real estate company shopping mall business uh and then we say okay well where's the trading and if there's a wide gap between price and value you can buy for 50 cents it's worth a dollar twenty well then we're going to take a hard look and try to understand why it trades at a deep discount and uh once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know or can we in light of the situation uh the circumstances can we be influential in changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing and those things are true we found something that looks quite interesting for us usually this investment philosophy does it take a week a month three months to do the research a year I mean you have 10 names what how long it depends I mean one of the best investments we've ever made it took us four hours to do the work I was during the financial crisis which was that Wachovia Corporation so um was on my BlackBerry uh eating breakfast The Brooklyn Diner in front of my building and the story went across the uh it was just you know Wall Street Journal headline of Reuters headline excuse me went across saying um that Citigroup to acquire the Wachovia Bank from subsidiaries for two dollars in Citigroup stock stock was halted this was kind of an interesting transaction because they're buying the subsidiaries for Citigroup stock I think that's interesting what happens to the holding company so I went back to the you know kind of went upstairs to the office and you know cracked open the 10K and another member of the team Mick McGuire he and I worked on it and uh the end of the day we figured they asked you know four hours would be determined the holding company was worth at least 11 to 14 cash a tax refund that you could carry back the 27 billion dollar loss recover cash taxes have been paid we have this cash vehicle you know Wachovia Securities which is a you know good wealth management business you'd own A.G Edwards and other interesting asset these are businesses you know well and the stock opened after it was halted at a dollar eighty four so we said look it's worthy you know 11 to 14 a dollar eighty four we bought 42 of the volume for the next four days and then it was acquired by then Wells came in and put in a topping bid of seven dollars in Wells Fargo stock which wasn't actually a topping bid but the Wells Fargo deal did not require government assistance right so I think Sheila bear left I remember that so tell us a little about your portfolio but give us uh just a take on why so few names so for a bunch of reasons I mean I've always had the view that uh you know why why not own the best 10 or 11 Investments as opposed to ideas 12 through 25 or 12 through 100 which is more typical and uh you know I think there are very few great Investments at any one time so the ability to concentrate is in a normalcy valuable asset of a strategy the problem with it is most it leads to bumpier returns and it leads to uh more attention on on mistakes or things that aren't going well you know I don't know a portfolio manager that doesn't have a stock that's down in his portfolio right but you don't read articles about uh when we're getting an awful lot of attention for a pretty high profile situation that's uh that's struggling but I think there's uh you know it depends on what your business model is but if you want to make high rates of return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very Diversified I mean if you look through the forks 400 wealthiest people in the world most of them made their fortune in one business or a portfolio of two businesses very few made it in a portfolio of 100 so it's if it's that and the other benefit it allows you to run a much simpler investment firm we have an eight-person investment team if we had 30 names we couldn't manage that portfolio the way we do with a small team but like a small team you can hire better Talent question but when a stock's down roughly 25 percent and the stock market's gone up dramatically at what point do you decide I'm going to buy more or what point do you decide I'm cutting my losses this is just the wrong direction it has nothing to do with the stock price for us it has to do with what's going on in the business you know in JCPenney case we're on the board we're working hard along with the other directors and we make sure that this ship is steered uh and steered correctly um you know as a general rule you know we if we conclude that we're wrong or we've learned new you know investing is about the best investments are the ones where we are The Confident we're right and everyone else is wrong okay and you have to in order to be you know been accused recently of being arrogant among other things no no I'm going to actually ask you that it was called it was pompous but that's okay pompous I don't think I'm pompous but I've certainly been accused of being arrogant the difference between arrogance and confidence yeah if you're arrogant in investing you're going to get killed right if you're not confident you'll never make an investment right so you have to do a sufficient amount of work to be confident enough to have the conviction do something that's contrarian right we bought the stock of a uh very soon to be bankrupt retailer I'm sorry a shopping mall company during the financial crisis uh at pennies per share you have to be willing to look silly when you do something like that General growth stocks up 90 fold since our original investment um you know on that's we had confidence maybe people thought it was arrogant to believe that we could be successful in turning it around but you also have to be humble and you have to recognize when there are new facts you hadn't considered that are inconsistent with your thesis so I'm pretty sure I may be mistaken that your entire portfolio is U.S except for Canadian Pacific Railway which may have been your best performer uh last quarter um why is this your only non-us play and do you think actually this may be a trend where you're starting to look outside of the U.S so we do very few things in fact we do very few things a year right our average holding period is four or five years for our kind of active Investments and we have 10 stocks right we need to find a couple of ideas a year it doesn't make sense to me unless the universe we play in we've run out of targets and why go why fly to Europe to have a meeting with management and why you know deal with a jurisdiction where we're less well known where we have fewer relationships we don't understand the legal system the regulatory environment so we focus on the United States and Canada we've invested in Canada before because we you know we understand the language we understand the law it's close to home it's a short flight to Calgary's next few hours but uh you know just close to home I can go see my kids you like to feel and touch it yeah yeah it's very important yeah um so you're known for occasionally hiring people with some non-traditional financial backgrounds former fly fisherman a tennis pro someone you met in a taxi so what actually are you looking for so most of the people that we have on the investment team are people with more conventional backgrounds uh half the team worked at Blackstone in either private Equity or Investment Banking uh a few guys from Goldman Sachs um but I'm a big believer you know I had internships in my life and uh you know if I meet a great human being uh you know I want to give some you know people who didn't go to Harvard Business School and didn't work at Goldman Sachs for four years you know some exposure so I met the beginning of Persia I met a guy named Oliver white who I believe is one of the you know it's become recognized one of the top fly fishing guides in the world very smart interesting Guy taught me fly fishing and I said look if you're interested in business and you want to intern at uh you know learn something about it you know come work for me and Oliver came and spent 18 months with us um you're taking a very outdoorsy guy and you're putting them in Manhattan which is kind of an interesting uh thing he didn't like that part of it but uh he learned a ton about business and then he left he actually worked a lot on one of our proxy contest situations in the Ceridian we had a proxy contest one of the issues was the uh the CEO was using the corporate jet to do a lot of fly fishing junkets so we were able to track that stuff through his network of fly fishermen so it was useful in the proxy contest anyway um and uh Oliver left uh you know and I backed him to buy a fly fishing lodge which the Abaco Lodge in uh in Abaco in the Bahamas and it's like you know 20 unlevered return on Capital and he's done an unbelievable job managing it and uh but I think it's a you know it's a nice thing to offer people those kind of ideas I always offered opportunities like I'm glad I flew down with you maybe maybe I have a role for uh at Pershing soon Hey friends do us a big favor if you are still watching and please drop us a like and if you want to be part of our community go ahead and subscribe and share our content to someone you think it may benefit from watching this video thanks for watching and I'll see you next week
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