저자: Paul · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 1분기 실적은 매출 16.3억달러(+85% YoY), EPS 0.33달러로 컨센서스를 상회했다. 연간 매출 가이던스를 76.5~76.6억달러로 상향했고 미국 상업 매출 성장률 전망도 높였다. 다만 PER(매출 대비 약 84배) 기준으로 과도하게 비싸다고 보며, 자신의 7년 DCF 분석에서 주가 적정가치는 약 40달러(낙관 100달러, 비관 16달러) 수준이라 판단해 커뮤니티 기준 '매도' 의견이다. 내부자 순매도와 버크셔의 현금 보유·'투자가 아닌 도박' 발언을 근거로 든다.
다듬은 글
All right, guys. Couple big stories today. First one is Palantir just reported. Thanks everybody being patient on my voice. You can still hear it. Company revenue, ready for this one? Jumped 85% year-over-year to 1.63 billion, beating the consensus estimate of 1.53 billion. And they reported 33 cents per share versus 27 cents per share estimate.
They absolutely crushed it. The stock is down a little bit. Now, remember, what usually happens is there's some sort of gyration and then all of a sudden they have their webcast and their earnings call at 5:00 and then other things will come out. They'll say something. They'll say the word AI 8,000 times.
If they say it 7,999 times, the company will collapse. It's already getting back to even. Guys, Palantir is one of the most hyped stocks in the market. Maybe one of the most overpriced ones. We don't know exactly cuz we don't know the future. The future is unknown. But when I see companies like this that are selling for 100 How many times?
84 times sales. Not 84 times earnings. Not 84 times free cash flow. Not 84 times EBITDA. 84 times sales. When Microsoft is selling for eight or nine times sales. When Google is selling for eight or nine times sales. That's a big number. This company has a lot more growth potential than those ones. Microsoft and Google aren't doing 85% revenue growth year-over-year.
That's an incredible incredible number. Our community members have this as a sell. We've We're value-driven people. If you're new to the channel, what this means is we don't look at just the story. We want to make sure the numbers and the story match up. Because our fifth tenant of principle-driven investing, a great story becomes a bad investment if you pay the wrong price.
If you don't care about the price you pay, buy Palantir for 100 trillion dollars. You might sit there and say, "Well, that's ridiculous." Okay, this is ridiculous, too, maybe. There's a point where it's not ridiculous anymore. We're trying to find that point. The good news is if you believe things can be overvalued, it didn't it naturally says that things can be undervalued.
That's our goal here, to find undervalued assets. Palantir is down 1%. I don't think they I want to pull up their earnings release and I'm not seeing it yet. So, I'm going to pull up this Yahoo article, Yahoo Finance article to actually go over some of the things. Alex Karp, "The United States remains the center of the constant core of our business and that business is erupting.
To be clear, our US business more than doubled in 12 months." The company raised its full year revenue guidance to 7.65 to 7.66 billion. That's a very narrow up from 7.18 to what to That That's a lot. It's a big jump, guys. It also raised US commercial revenue forecast for the year to 3.22 billion up 120% from a prior growth protection projection of 115%.
Last year last quarter, Palantir said it closed 206 deals of least a million, 72 deals of at least 5 million and 47 deals of at least 10 million dollars. I mean, guys, this company is slaying. One of the things I love about this deal cash flow is greater than net income. That is narrowing, though. Okay, which is good.
I'm glad to see that. I have had concerns in the past about Palantir manipulating their numbers on the net income side quite a few times. Um another thing I want to point out about Palantir, go to the cash flow statement. So, a lot of times you got to look at stock-based compensation cuz a lot of people take your cash flow and subtract out stock-based compensation, which cuts their cash flow significantly cuz they're issuing stock.
I I don't know what the ar- I I I have a little bit different opinion on the argument, but I have to really work on that to see if I'm really being consistent. So, let's go. Guys, here's some of their highlights for the first quarter. US revenue grew 104% as Alex Karp said. Let me remind you, it doubled and 19% quarter over quarter.
US commercial revenue grew 133%, US government revenue of 84% revenue overall 85% closed 206 deals. I mean this is free cash flow of 925 million. Okay, so let's go look at last year's fourth quarter first quarter to see what that was for the cash flow. Quarterly last year's first quarter cash flow is 304 million.
They 3x their cash flow. I mean absolutely incredible. Guys, it I love this company. I love talking about this company so much because every number, every story, every everything says this company's incredible. And yet I look at it going is it too expensive? Now you might sit there and say, "Well, you've been saying it's like yeah, but when I said it was expensive in February 21 when that other idiot hipster was calling it a $500 stock, I said it was worth about maybe five or six dollars a share.
Then it went from 45 out of 583. It was still growing like crazy, but it still fell 90%. Why? Because guys, in the short run stocks are voting machines, in the long run they're weighing machines. Look at Intel for example. Intel's a company that's up 5x in the last year. I own Intel. Do I think it's worth $98 a share?
Spoiler alert, I do not think that. Man, it's incredible. So, before we get into our stock analyzer, if you guys want to see what I think Palantir is worth, let's go over a couple other things. UPS and FedEx today plummeted 10% cuz Amazon started talking about their shipping business. They're becoming the they're the everything company, right?
They're going to start shipping for other people. What's going to happen here? Listen, it's more competition for these guys. My question to Amazon is is this really a business you want to get into? Why? Jeffy B, what are you doing, man? Why are you trying to do this? Like you do you do I mean I get it.
It's another way to make money, but let's go pull up the the gross margin. I mean look at the gross profit on UPS 17%. I don't know. I I you already have your shipping your your trucks everywhere. I guess if you're like, "Well, we might as well ship for other people." Maybe so. Maybe it really adds up a lot for them.
I have no idea. But, UPS and FedEx both taking a huge hit. All right, so I'm just hearing about this thing about Alex Karp's manifesto, a 22-point manifesto that he came out with about the about AI and its dominance. And this guy's Listen, I think Alex Karp is crazy. Not in Elon Musk crazy kind of way.
Like in a we got to be worried about this guy kind of way. And I know it's all perspective cuz a lot of people are worried about Elon Musk. But, the difference is I've always been thinking that Alex Karp was crazy when he started I mean, he gets so angry about these short sellers, to which I say, "Alex, just run your business well." If you run your business well, you're going to be okay.
Don't worry about it. And the guy's nuts. Now, I'll make another comment that are there any insiders that at Palantir buying? Not a single one's buying. It's been net sellers. I I get it. People sell for many reasons, but not one single person's bought. Why? They think this this company how much What's this company worth now?
Now, it's even. 377 billion dollars. Guys, this is a tough one. Now, if they do 8 billion dollars in revenue and you assign a 10 multiple to it called 12 cuz it's growing fast, 15, it's still a 100 120 million billion-dollar business. But, right now they're 300 some billion. So, that means the stock got to fall to 50 bucks to make sense.
So, let's go to my stock analyzer. So guys, remember, this is where we pull the story and the numbers together. We do all of this to sit there and say, "Okay, what is this company worth?" Now, the issue is I've done a 10-year analysis. I'm actually going to go lower. I'm going to do a 7-year analysis, which is rare.
And the reason being is Palantir is growing so fast that 10 years at 20% or 30% growth is hard. 7 years is hard, but it's a lot more understandable than 10 years. So, I'm going to change this to a 7-year analysis. Look at their return on invested capital. Boom, jumped up. The free cash flow's coming in.
Revenue growth. They did 12, 20, and 30%. Profit margin 30, 40, and 50%. PE, what PE would I assign to this company 7 years from now? It's a premium business. Guys, I'm going to do it more. I'm going to call it 20, 25, and 30. Now, here's the problem. I'm only doing this for the people who are watching.
I still think it's 18, 22, and 26 because we're stuck in what it's doing right now. So, we want to apply a PE of what we feel right now versus 7 years from now when it's a much more mature company and the hype is kind of died down. And then finally, my 9% no margin of safety completely based on a market return, intrinsic value.
This is not the price I'm going to buy it at. This is what I think it's worth. I hit the analyze button. It's so important, guys, to understand that in the short run, stocks are voting machine. In the long run, they're weighing machine. This is why I get concerned. I have a low price of 16. Even at 30% revenue growth, I have a high price of 100.
I have a middle price of 40. So, I look at this going, is Palantir worth a premium? 1,000% assuming they're not doing some sort of questionable accounting practices. But are they worth in this kind of premium? I would argue against that. It's very hard to find a 400 350 billion-dollar company that can justify 85 times sales.
That means for every dollar of sales That means if you if you if you have a business at home that generates a million dollars in revenue revenue and profits 200,000 a year, it'd be like selling your company for 85 million dollars. How many people are willing I mean, even if you can double your profit for 3 or 4 years, it's still going to be hard to justify.
This is what investing is all about. Investing is about sitting there and saying, what is the right price to pay for this amazing thing? The hard part about investing is the amazing companies tend to get bought up in the stock market and the prices get pushed to nosebleed levels. I want to make note, we had a Berkshire Hathaway meeting recently.
And Greg Abel talked about how he thinks people he calls it he it was amazing. He said, "We're not investing. We're not speculating. The market is gambling." And I loved that. I was just like cuz I consider speculation and gamble to be very similar things. He's like, "No, this is just gambling." They have $397 billion in cash sitting there.
And they're like, "We just don't see the numbers. They don't work out. The prices We see a lot of great companies and the prices just don't make sense." Now, they have $400 billion and they have a lot of private enterprises. They have a lot of money still invested, but they've been net sellers of stocks the last 12 quarters.
That's a big number, guys. So, guys, if you like this channel, do me a favor. Subscribe. If you've been here before, if you watch our other channel, our main channel, do me a favor. Check out our community. This is the place you go to to get answers to the questions that you have so you feel better at night.
These will make you I will help you feel better. What's a stock actually worth? That's what this is for. Like-minded investors who all think that the present value of all the future cash flows is what's going to determine your investment returns. So, check out everythingmoney.com. Click the link below or click the link in the very first pinned comment. Thank you for your time.
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