저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
Greenblatt은 공식 포뮬러 투자 실험에서 종목을 직접 고른 투자자는 약 59%, S&P500은 62%, 자동매수(체크박스로 리스트 전체 매수)는 84%를 기록해, 재량 개입이 22%p 초과수익을 3%p 하회로 바꿨다고 설명한다. 결론은 전략 자체보다 이해하고 일관되게 고수하는 것이 중요하다는 것이다. 그 밖에 야드세일 비유로 소외된 영역(스핀오프, 파산, 소형주, 복잡한 구조조정)의 가치를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
I set up something called formula investing. And I gave people two choices. I said I said listen. We'll let you do this yourself. But you have to choose from this top list of 30 or 50 stocks and you have to choose at least 20 of them. Okay, stay out of trouble and you you're supposed to invest every quarter update your portfolio and just you know mechanically do this.
You don't have to buy everything but you have to buy at least 20. And then the person who was running this for me said you know what? How about you just add a checkbox which said just do this for me. Just automatically buy. So as an afterthought I said fine. We'll do that too. So we ran this for a couple of years and let me tell you the results.
The people who chose their own stocks you know from the pre-approved list of the top stocks they did pretty well for the two years they were up 59% roughly. Unfortunately the S&P was up 62% during those two years. The automatic you know just do it for me that was up 84%. So the automatic had beaten the in other words just buying the list had beaten the market by 22 points.
But by giving people any discretion even though the list was pre-approved just by picking and choosing the ones that they didn't like but they had to buy at least 20 they managed to take a 22% outperformance in a couple of years which is pretty good and turn into a 3% underperformance. So do-it-yourself I wrote a I wrote a piece for Morningstar called adding your two cents may cost you a lot.
And and so I just wanted a caveat that so so another way let's see I'll do this fast I wrote a book uh Saurabh mentioned called you can be a stock market genius world's worst title of all time but uh in it it said sort of what Warren Buffett calls why don't we look for one foot hurdles. Okay? And I opened the book with a story about my in-laws whose used to spend they they had a house in Connecticut and they used to spend the weekends going to yard sales and country auctions looking for bargains.
Okay? Paintings or sculptures they they were uh art collectors. Uh and I described what they were actually doing. And they were not going to these yard sales and country auctions looking for you know seeing a painting that was discarded saying this guy's the next Picasso. That's not what they were doing.
What they were looking for are pieces of art or sculpture that they know the artist some of his similar work had just gone for auction for a lot more than they could buy it for. Right? They can buy it for 30 or 40 cents on the dollar for what it just went to auction for. That's a lot different question.
And so what the you can be a stock market genius was was showing you these areas that are ignored. These are the country auctions and the yard sales of the investment world and these were you know I talked about different areas spin-offs bankruptcies uh um you know small cap stocks uh you know companies going through recapitalizations anything weird complicated situations.
So that's another way but you guys have a full-time job that is a full-time job. Let me tell you that's a full-time job. Basically the best strategy for you which is not only one that makes sense but one you can stick with. Okay? So you have to understand what you're doing number one. If you give it to someone else you have to understand what they're doing.
And you have to be able to stick with it. So you have to understand it well enough to stick with it. It's not about finding the perfect strategy. It's about sticking to your strategy long enough for it to work says Joel Greenblatt. Most people fail not because their strategy is bad but because they keep changing it.
You need to understand your approach deeply so well that you are confident even when things don't go your way. The reality is money can be made in stock market through many different strategies. Just look at legends like Peter Lynch Warren Buffett Benjamin Graham Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Charlie Munger.
Each had a completely different way of investing. But here's the common thread. They all believed in their strategy and stayed consistent. That's how real wealth is built in the stock market.
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