저자: TioHuli · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치의 『One Up On Wall Street』를 소개하는 책 리뷰 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없고 투자 원칙을 설명한다. 월스트리트 역설: 애널리스트 분석이 적은 기업일수록 숨은 투자 기회가 있을 수 있다는 주장이다. 거대 펀드는 정관(투자정책)상 담배·주류·도박 등 죄악주나 신용등급 미달 개발도상국 기업을 편입하지 못하므로, 이런 영역에 기회가 있다고 설명한다. ETF에 편입되지 않은 기업은 시장에서 간과되어 같은 위험 대비 더 높은 수익을 줄 수 있으니 이를 걸러내라고 조언한다. 완벽한 주식은 화려한 산업이 아니라 예측 가능하고 지루한 사업이라는 관점이다. 기술 기업은 파괴적 변화 위험이 크다고 본다(워런 버핏 스타일과 연결). 자동차 산업의 전기차 전환 사례처럼 설비투자(자본적 지출)가 많이 드는 산업은 주주 가치를 잠식할 수 있다고 설명한다. 테슬라 시가총액이 상위 여섯 개 자동차 회사보다 크다는 언급이 있다. 그라넨데(신발), 마르코 폴로(버스) 등을 예로 들며 생산능력과 설비 확장 여부를 짚는다. 다만 매수·매도 권유는 하지 않았다고 명시한다. 이익 증대 방법 다섯 가지를 제시한다: 비용 절감, 가격 인상(강한 브랜드), 점포 등 사업 확장, 같은 고객에게 더 많이 판매하기, 손실 사업 정리. 알파르가타스가 아르헨티나 부문을 매각해 주가가 오른 사례를 든다. 결론적으로 장기적으로 이익을 늘릴 수 있는 기업, 특히 이익이 아직 회복되지 않았거나 성장 궤도가 있는 기업이 높은 수익을 준다는 메시지다. 출연자 전망: 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, how are you? We're here with another episode of our Uncle's Library series. And today I'm going to talk about a best-selling book, almost unanimously agreed upon by investors, which is the book "One Up On Wall Street". The translation of the original title is "One Up on Wall Street". And this book became very famous for the simplicity with which Peter Lynch, the greatest manager of the 80s, explains basic concepts on how to take better care of your money.
So, just bear with the presentation, we've already started. Let's go , people. So, going back to Peter Lynch's book, "One Up On Wall Street," let's start by talking about the Wall Street paradox. This book is full of lessons, my friends. So there was no way to put everything we can learn from this book into a single video.
Get ready because we'll be back with new versions of this review, okay? And I ask you to leave your like on this video, because it's important for the channel and helps spread this good content to other people. What does he mean by the Wall Street Paradox, people? He argues that those companies least analyzed by analysts are the ones that offer the best investment opportunities, since no one has yet dug in that soil to see if there is a hidden treasure.
And another important thing we must understand is that several mega-funds, those with the best managers and analysts, have a legal limitation: their statutes. The statute of a fund is its investment policy and what the requirements are for the fund to be able to make the purchase of those shares. There are many funds, mainly in developed countries, that restrict managers from buying companies that deal with some kind of vice, i.e., tobacco, alcohol or gambling.
They also limit, for example, companies from developing countries; In other words, countries without "investment grade" ratings cannot be part of that fund's portfolio. This opens up opportunities for you, who are looking outside that select group of " investment grade" or highly liquid companies; That's where the real gems of the market can be found.
In other words, when we start to see what everyone is buying, those assets are probably already well valued (or correctly appraised ). And look, I'm going to open a parenthesis here to explain what it means to be well valued. The return that this stock, this action, will give, should be adjusted according to the risk you are taking.
It's very important that you focus on this content, because here I'm teaching you how to avoid false opportunities. Here we will truly understand that great opportunities are not in plain sight of the big sharks of the market. Another important thing we see in this process here, and which is not clearly in the book, is the following.
Today we have many companies held by ETF funds that cover some broader indices within the stock market. And then there are those companies that are not being held by any ETF, and if you want to know more about what an ETF is, go to this short video that the production team will link here. The production team is even happy that I remembered to do that.
In other words, guys, when we see that it's not part of the Ibovespa, for example, here in Brazil, that company isn't in the Small Caps index either, that company isn't in the index of, I don't know, corporate governance or in the GDPB; That company may be overlooked in the market and offering a higher return for the same level of risk you will assume when buying that asset.
Therefore, it is very important that you filter these types of companies to make things easier for you, since we cannot analyze all the companies in the market . Second point I'm going to bring up here for you: it's important that Peter Lynch likes to emphasize that perfect action is big business. But we're left thinking that the perfect stock is the one in that super sexy, super disruptive industry that's filling the pages of specialized magazines and also websites specializing in the financial market.
He says: "Be careful because one day an idiot might run the company you're a partner in, and it's good that the company is in a sector that doesn't have a very volatile dynamic over time so that you have predictability." This is also very reminiscent of Warren Buffett's style . Because? Warren Buffett doesn't like technology companies because disruption can happen at any time and you need to be very attentive to these changes, otherwise you will be devoured by the competition.
Another thing he says is the following, look. Boring and tedious businesses can be the best possible businesses, both because of this dynamic of altering the technological process, but think here from the side of an evaluation. Do you remember what we need to do to understand a long-term project? How much is it worth?
We need to understand the operating profit; we will add those depreciations, and we will also add any cash inflows from financing. And we need to pay attention, especially in this case, to this part of the valuation: what is what? What investments do I need to make? Imagine the entire automotive industry; it will have to change all its machinery in the industrial park to adapt to this new reality of electric cars.
This is one of the main reasons why we see Tesla alone worth more than the six largest automakers in the world. Because? Volkswagen , Chevrolet, and Ford will all have to undergo significant changes in their production processes and logistics chains. That will cost the shareholder money, eh! We can also draw attention to some companies in the bus sector here in Brazil.
I'm going to mention Marco Polo, but at no point am I recommending that you buy or sell this stock. But the question remains how this change in the structure of the automotive sector can also be transferred to the structure of the bodywork and bus sector. I see that for the future it is much more important to master the software that will be included inside the car, bus or truck than any other type of investment.
I will also give the example of Grendene here. Grendene's industrial park has the capacity to produce approximately 250 million pairs of shoes per year. And currently in 2020 the company is producing between 150 and 160 million pairs. Imagine a company that wants to grow from there; it doesn't need to buy any new machinery, meaning it has no cash outflow for the purchase of new machines.
But if I'm already working with a company that 's at the limit of its production capacity, what do I have to do to increase those revenues? Buy new machines. And there I have to train my workforce, I have to update all my systems so that they are integrated with that new machine. In other words, predictable and boring sectors experience far fewer of these changes.
This is good for the shareholder's pocketbook, huh! And here we go to the third and final part of this short review of Peter Lynch's book, The Investment Style , which is this here, look. Ultimately, what the shareholder wants to know is more profits, more profits, and more profits. And what does he mean by that?
It is that a separation of a business is represented in a share. In other words, what we buy is not just any piece of paper, but a fractional part of the social capital of a corporation, a company that employs people, produces a product that generates value for its customers and has a relationship with its employees, with the environment and also with the government.
But ultimately, the stock value increases as we increase that company's profits. Another thing is that we must seek to increase profits in the long term. It may seem a little obvious, but you have to understand that those companies that already have a high profit today have already delivered what they promised in the past.
And you've probably already seen how that stock has appreciated over time. We should look for companies that currently have depreciated profits or that have a great growth trajectory ahead. And those are the companies that will offer us the greatest returns. And I've brought here five ways that Peter Lynch describes for a company to increase its profits, and you should pay attention to these when investing your money.
Look, the first thing is reducing costs. It may seem obvious, but when we see a major technological avalanche approaching, we must think: will this technology displace my business from the competitive environment or can it be used to decrease my cost structure? Many people thought that with the advent of computing, businesses would be displaced forever, but many managed to reduce the number of employees who looked after the payroll.
In other words, using the Office suite, we were able to shift several employees from manual tasks to automated ones, thus reducing costs for many companies. We can also increase prices. That's why you should pay attention to whether the company you 're investing in has a strong brand or a lasting competitive advantage , because it's through that strong brand or lasting competitive advantage that it will be able to raise its prices above its costs and thus increase its margins or protect that company from inflation.
Understood? The third point is the capacity for expansion. Let's look at a retail chain here. A retail chain can greatly increase the number of its stores. That's one way to expand. If you see a company that has a fairly satisfied clientele and you see that this can expand to the rest of Brazil, that can be a great opportunity.
Let's take Starbucks as an example. Starbucks was born in Seattle, in the United States, and has already started with a few stores. This is because Howard Schultz bought a chain that already had several stores and decided to expand it. When they realized in the 1980s that this network could be very large, reaching approximately 25,000 or 30,000 points of sale worldwide, they realized that it was a great growth platform.
This can also be an opportunity for you if you want to invest in businesses that can multiply many times over. I will dwell a little longer on this topic because we also need to see how much this expansion costs. I'm going to give another example of a different type of company that is much more complicated to expand.
Let's talk about CSN. CSN has an iron ore mine and a steel plant. Each of those plants must cost in the order of billions of reais. And then one imagines, when comparing it to a Raia Drogasil, does it want to multiply, or does it have the ease of multiplying that steel mill with the same ease as it has of multiplying the number of pharmacies?
No, right? Therefore, this can be a major differentiator when evaluating companies and their long-term growth. Let's look at the penultimate point here. We can sell more to the same customers. What do I mean by this? Let's take the example of Arezzo now, okay? Arezzo has the Arezzo brand, it has the Schutz brand, and it has other smaller brands.
What else do you want to do besides increasing the numbers, expand the number of stores here? He wants that customer who bought from this brand to also be able to buy from another brand with a different positioning. Or that Schutz customer, which is the most premium footwear brand I know from Arezzo, might like a collection so much that she buys several colors of the same shoe.
So this is a way to sell more to the same customer. This can greatly increase a company's profit. And pay close attention, the last point I'm going to make about how a company can increase its results is precisely by cutting losses. Because? Companies experience periods of expansion and periods of contraction.
These moments of disorganized expansion can lead the company to buy businesses that do not have much relation to its core, that is, to its central strategy. And after a while, when they realize that that segment isn't yielding results, they can go ahead and sell that unit that was ultimately reducing their profits .
I'll give an example here of another retail company that did this and its stock skyrocketed afterward. That was the case with Alpargatas. Alpargatas had a unit in Argentina that had been performing poorly . And then, around 2018, the company decided to close that unit just before a political event that caused the stock market there to fall by almost 50% in one day.
From the moment the company made that decision, it began to curb a figure that had reduced its profit for several periods. Even better, with the money he obtained from the sale of that unit, he was able to reinvest in units with better prospects for return and which also already had a positive result in net profit.
Folks, this was the basic summary of the book "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. I think there's enough content there to make about 10 videos just like this one. So wait , we'll be back with more news for you. But if you liked this video, please turn on notifications to receive other great videos we'll be making about investing.
And don't forget to "like" it here to show that you truly validated the quality of this content. I'm Tiúli, I'm signing off here and this is just the beginning, folks . We are together. A kiss.
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