저자: 김영지 · 한국인
요약 보기
WSJ 기사 인용 후 코스피 변동성은 AI 사이클 내 반도체 과열의 결과로 정상화 과정이라 주장. 코스피 1150 부근에서 콜/풋 매도 포지션 구축, 1200~1300 콜 숏 및 800 이하 풋 숏 전략 언급. 미 국채는 베선트 재무장관의 SLR 완화·바이백 등 정책이 9월 FOMC 전후로 나올 수 있어 금리 상승 압력 가능성, 2026년 하반기~2027년 상반기 추가 금리 고점 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
hello. This is SP Kim Young-ji. The Wall Street Journal article discusses the KOSPI, described as the craziest market in the world . Looking at the details, it features stories of investors who underperformed this year while investing in the bull market, discusses the extreme volatility of the AI-related Korean market, and also addresses the side effects of leveraged products .
But in my opinion, it's a bit late. There are various things currently causing concern in the market, and I believe that discussions regarding Korean market volatility and the crisis theories in the U.S. Treasury market are all just after-effects . The reason the Korean market was bound to become the craziest market in the world is not just the Korean market, but it is correct to view it that the semiconductor cycle within the AI cycle has gone completely berserk .
That is the volatility. From now on, investment targets and volatility will differ depending on the AI value chain and layer . I think so. I get the feeling that semiconductors, hyperscalers, LRM, and software are all evolving in distinct ways. Also, regarding semiconductors, unlike in the past where they would enter an economic cycle and then experience sharp fluctuations—seemingly hitting the exact opposite after a good rally—it seems that the AI cycle is now proceeding in alignment with the market.
I think the range of fluctuation might decrease compared to the past . Therefore, seeing this situation and these articles, I believe that managing investor sentiment is extremely important . I think the same applies not only to the KOSPI but also to the US market . I believe that managing investment sentiment is very important, rather than accepting what you hear as anxiety at face value .
As I have mentioned before, when managing my positions, I constantly move and respond to the market, but the logic for large-scale trading differs depending on the index level . Once about half of the decline has been recovered, some degree of correction should be expected here. That is why you need to change your strategy, and you must consider that if it falls to a certain extent, downside volatility may decrease .
And as it comes down, the very fact that it can rebound and increase upward volatility in opposition to that decreasing downward volatility can be viewed as a risk. Those holding short positions in derivatives could be hit again by the volatility that emerges during a rebound . We must account for a situation where volatility can rapidly shift from the downside to the upside depending on where the KOSPI index stands .
I previously mentioned that after recovering about half of the position's decline, I would switch the futures position to a call and change the strategy to drag the position down if it continued to fall. Currently, the position is being dragged down continuously, so I am building short call positions around the 1200 and 1300 levels based on the KOSPI 200, while for puts, I am holding short put positions below 800.
And when a correction occurs this time, it is important to determine where and what call positions to take to create a favorable profit structure. That is the key point. I thought that way, but I am currently holding onto it as it dropped to around 1150 . So, looking at it from a call position perspective, we are targeting the range of 150 to 1,300 based on the KOSPI 200, and from a downward perspective, regarding the 800 level and below, it is proceeding in a process of obtaining the premium by building an upward position through a sell position.
Simply put, I am thinking of a position where I take an OTM call/put short position and build a profit structure starting from the 1150 call based on the KOSPI 200 . I was saying earlier that the KOSPI market is just going crazy . It is a provocative expression that dampens investment sentiment . The reason I think that is that from now on, it looks like it can return to normalcy .
I think so. Volatility is also expected to decrease somewhat, and if the semiconductor sector sees reduced volatility, the weakened function of overseas markets becomes possible. I think so . Because the semiconductor market moves similarly almost globally, and given that the Korean market has strong upward and downward dynamics due to the high semiconductor competition between the US and China, I believe it is now entering a process of normalization.
I think that rather than becoming too discouraged, how we respond is a crucial point at this time . Let's take a look at the KOSPI market that way. With the US market now approaching Jackson and the FMC meeting a bit further ahead in September, I think we need to give some thought to the government bond market .
Stanley Drunk Miller is Treasury Secretary Bethann's mentor. Bloomberg is saying this, but it is not right to intervene in the market. That is the point . While there are such claims, there are also such claims . The bond market is returning to its former normal . It is not that the Finance Minister intervenes and returns things to normal; rather, it is that the low interest rates during that period were not normal.
The person who wrote this column also wrote a column like this in the past . Hierarchy, is hierarchy really possible? This is about the Power Le Jang era. Based on what this person said, interest rates themselves will rise in the future, rather than just coming in as a hire. That is how the analysis was done, and this is about May 2024 .
From that time on, the interest rate remained at a continuously rising level. It’s not just that I’ve been hired. That is what is being said now, and at this current point, things are returning to normal . This is how the analysis is done . From my perspective, the interest rates were a bit excessive during the zero-rate period, and I think it is right for them to rise to some extent.
However, it is difficult to view them as continuing to rise from here, as there are cases where we consider the neutral rate and cases where we approach it based on growth potential . In that case, I thought it was abnormal for it to rise to 5% or 6%, and wouldn't it be somewhat acceptable to go up to around 5% based on the 10-year bond?
And since we also need to consider it in conjunction with AI companies, don't you think a slightly different perspective is needed compared to the past? If the market has such a leading characteristic, Considering that, isn't another peak likely to appear between the latter half of 2026 and the first half of 2027?
I am also looking into those as an opportunity. In addition, regarding the long-term scenario I am approaching—that is, regarding the long-term scenario—I view the flow from March to September of this year as one cycle and am continuing the story, and I mentioned this around April. Besent keeps coming up with ideas.
The Ministry of Finance is devising various policy measures to facilitate bond issuance. I have been continuously monitoring and reporting on those situations, and while it was the case then, one issue that could be raised in the future is bank regulations. Since the easing of ESLR regulations began in April, some changes have appeared regarding bank regulations, but I think we need to keep in mind that SLR regulations will eventually reappear .
When looking at each and every one of the plans that Minister Besse has pushed forward so far, and considering that he is bringing them out one by one ahead of the Jackson Symposium and the September FMC meeting, if we look at what remains among them, I think that the relaxation of SLR regulations is what is left.
I mentioned the buyback. And regarding the talk of TJ's Treasury Department intervening in the repo market, they could also inject funds for a buyback. That logic itself has been discussed repeatedly, and this topic has been brought up continuously in this quarter's financing plan . The topic of Pad directly participating in the central payment system was also raised, but since this is not under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, I think it is likely something that Wash will be able to discuss in the future.
The integration of Demove and Pad's balance sheets is also something worth talking about, but looking at the current storyline, I think it is likely proceeding in this manner, even though it hasn't been officially announced yet. So, Director Michelman, who has not yet confirmed his appearance, only gathered market opinions regarding the deregulation of SLR.
Isn't this coming up in the market again between the Jackson No-show and the FMC meeting in September ? All of this is something Secretary Bass has been raising, and it is being discussed in the market one by one. While he can talk about Treasury fraud, Wash will have to handle matters related to the Fed, so isn't it possible that these kinds of stories are emerging?
It means that they are being revealed one by one . So, I am interested, and I think that significant changes could occur in the market. Even just looking at the coupon buyback, I thought, "Well, that might be understandable." But now that TJ Move Jeong is being mentioned as well, it makes me realize that they are bringing out almost everything that has been discussed so far.
Because of this, I feel that we need to pay close attention to all the things that have been mentioned and actually implement them . If that happens, a significant change could occur. The TJ account simply participates in the repo market or buyback. That is important, but it is equally important for the pad to be integrated into the central payment system.
It is important that discussions related to this can continue in the future, as it is connected in almost a single context to how successfully bonds can be issued . I think so. When setting up quarterly financing plans, there is a group called TBAC. If you look at the members of the advisory committee, as you can see here, it is composed of BlackRock, BIMCO, MetLife, Vanguard, JP Merchants, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America.
The content discussed with these people is directly applied to the Treasury's bond issuance strategy, and everything from maturity composition and size to the repo market and central clearing is discussed together. So, although the stories emerging this time are being presented to the market as if they are new, they have actually been discussed for a long time.
This is something that can be found in the announcements made by TBACs regarding quarterly financing plans, and it is a topic that has been continuously discussed and mentioned on this channel. So, for those who have been watching this channel, this content probably wo n't feel that unfamiliar. That is my opinion, but if not, for market participants who haven't had much interest in this area, these are policies that make them wonder what this is all about.
Why is the Ministry of Finance issuing and then buying the bills again while issuing government bonds ? You could also think of it that way . While TBAC is important, the primary dealer also plays a role. More detailed discussions regarding the quarterly financing plan are finalized at this Primary Dealer Way .
This group is very similar to the TBAC members mentioned earlier, but if you look at the companies that were not there before, Ivy League firms like BMP, Paribas, the Japanese Daiwa, Mizu, and Nomura stand out again. As it is an entity that actually participates in auction bidding and reacts most sensitively to market demand, it directly exchanges opinions with pads and financial brokers, providing important input values when financial brokers determine the scale or maturity in liquidity-related situations.
You can view it that way . We need to consider the fact that these people and the PBAC went through all the discussions currently circulating in the market before speaking out; it wasn't simply something that came out of Finance Minister Bessent's head, but that there was a process involved . It means that it is not just my own thought.
So, when such remarks are made to simply leave things alone, regarding how to interpret them, while this person's perspective is important, the history and process that have unfolded when a decision is made are also crucial. I think so. The point is to take that into account. I have talked a lot about President Rolilogan, so you all probably remember.
That is what I think, but people keep talking about the hawks these days . Interest rates need to be raised significantly . He continues to discuss this with a similar tone to Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Pad, but his characteristic is that, along with that mapper-like stance, liquidity must definitely be supplied.
It means there is a stance that considers that important. In particular, I handled related work during my time as Vice President of New York, and that counterpart was Bethham Mack. Besmak was with Goldman Sachs at the time. If we consider such a story, how is the market currently evolving ? Is this Besent's idea all alone?
I should give that some thought too . In the case of Governor Rory Logan, while managing this liquidity, the pad must directly intervene in the central clearing system. I recently brought up the topic of treating that this year . It wasn't done alone. We also talked about New York Bay Williams and Cheongje together.
I said the exact same thing . Furthermore, since we have been continuously discussing how to manage liquidity and matters related to the repo market, this was an informal communication process with the market; it was not spoken officially as a representative of the Pad, but was a personal remark. It is informal communication because it was done under that premise .
That is how it is expressed. Since it proceeded through such a process, it is natural that there are sides in the market that criticize and sides that are concerned. However, in a way, there are also sides that wonder why people are speaking out against it, expressing dissatisfaction, or feeling anxious now about what has already been going on.
I think that people who have been watching this continuously like me, and those who watch this channel, probably have similar thoughts. Especially when looking at TJ Balance, the amount I have marked in red is the $950 billion mentioned in this quarter's funding plan. That will decrease to $850 billion in the next quarter.
I also thought about how to proceed with this, but upon reflection, I think that as it shrinks and the height decreases, liquidity might flow out again in a buyback manner . We will have to wait and see how this proceeds and how it connects to the buyback, but considering that, the topic is suddenly coming up out of the blue.
Aren't they pushing this through right before the election because they're cornered? The point is that the story that has continued so far is too long to express it that way. Regarding Besent's ideas, following the ESLR deregulation I mentioned earlier, the SLR deregulation has also been pursued, and details such as reducing the number of issues when issuing government bonds to make management easier have also been reviewed.
It is not about integrating the Ministry of Finance and the university's balance sheets while managing them together. To what extent can integrated management place a burden on the private sector? Ideas regarding how much the private sector could absorb were also continuously communicated with the market .
A recent discussion was that if financial accounts were to intervene in the repo market, Django could operate more stably, allowing market participants like primary dealers to approach the market with a sense of stability. In the case of government bond auctions, it can be somewhat difficult to hold onto confidence when participating .
It means that it could come in hard . This means that demand could recover . Considering that such discussions have already been raised, it is inevitable to speak of the current situation with anxiety; however, the peak is approaching, and this is evident when practically assessing demand, and it is related to AI companies.
And since the absolute level itself has risen to some extent, it is not just a high-off run; significant progress has been made. And in the case of Finance Minister Bassen, there is still one real knockout left at the very end . You could argue that way . I feel that discussing SLR regulations at this Jacksonnell Symposium might be a bit too detailed and have too strong a market impact, especially in my case .
I think we could also talk about it by analogy. It seems there is the option of deferring it to the FMC meeting, and I think there are various ways to consider. However, since it could be a decisive blow that comes out eventually and could be stronger than the liquidity flows seen since April, market participants need to watch it with great interest .
Could n't you think of it that way? At the Jacksnal Symposium, that topic is related to payment. So, it is also connected to stablecoins . Now that is how the discussion is going, in a way, it is also connected to SLR regulations . If stablecoins and SLR regulations are simultaneously connected to the topic of the Jacksonnell Symposium settlement, the ripple effect will be even greater.
That is how I see it; from my perspective, would n't it be correct to apply them separately? When will the time be again ? I think it might be important to add that . To summarize what I discussed today, rather than saying the KOSPI has gone crazy, it is in the process of heading normally . I think that is the correct way to look at it, and depending on the position of the index, we need to consider whether the downward volatility might weaken and then strengthen upward again, or vice versa .
It is thought that such a practical approach strategy is necessary, and criticism regarding the government bond market is inevitable. However, these are issues that have been discussed frequently, and because interest rates have been so low, it may appear as though they are rising significantly now .
That is a point that needs to be considered. While the emerging stories are sporadically surprising the market, if we look at the history, these are not stories that suddenly appeared out of nowhere; rather, they are the process of long-standing topics now appearing in the market in earnest. That is how it needs to be viewed, and additionally, something very powerful is on standby .
It needs to be viewed that way. I think so. It is the Jacksnal Symposium 2789, and Chairman Wash is scheduled to give the speech on the 28th. I will summarize the stories emerging just before that and prepare a market analysis broadcast video for you on Thursday, the 27th . We will stop here for today . thank you
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