Markets are hoping for conciliation in G-20 summit, says Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel

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미중 G20 정상회담 결과 기대와 시장 영향에 대한 분석이다. 핵심 결론: 회담에서 확정적 합의는 어렵지만, 긍정적 신호만으로도 시장은 우호적으로 반응할 것으로 보인다. 미중 회담 전망: 트럼프는 다자회의보다 일대일 협상을 선호하며, 합의 발표는 1월 1일 시한에 가까워질 때 나올 가능성이 크다. 시 주석과 트럼프가 우호적 발언을 주고받은 것은 고무적이다. 그러나 양국 간 쟁점이 아직 많아 이번 회담에서 확정 합의가 나오기는 어렵다고 본다. 시장 기대: 무역 전쟁 해결에 대한 기대는 이미 주가에 약 80~90% 반영된 것으로 보인다. 따라서 회담에서 실망스러운 결과가 나오면 큰 충격이 될 수 있다. 연말까지 진전이 없어도 현 수준의 연장은 용인되지만, 진전이 없으면 시장은 불안해질 것이다. 연준 영향: 파월 연준 의장의 발언으로 금리 인상 우려가 상당히 완화되었다. 기술주 흐름: 워크데이, VMware 등 성장주의 강세가 이어지고 있으며, 기술 섹터가 이번 랠리를 이끌고 있다. 2019년 기대에 대한 긍정적 신호도 나타나고 있다. 리스크: 무역 협상 진전이 없을 경우 시장이 불안해질 수 있으며, 트럼프 협상 특성상 결과 예측은 어렵다. 출연자 전망: 회담에서 확정적 합의는 기대하기 어렵지만, 시장은 긍정적 분위기를 원하고 있으며 이는 어느 정도 충족될 것으로 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in terms of this us-china meeting tomorrow night from a market standpoint what would be the definition of success well clearly the market really wants resolution of this Chinese problem I I don't think it's it's going to happen at this meeting I think the history is honestly Trump doesn't like these multilateral meetings or conferences he's a he's like a one-on-one guy and likes to announce things like that and it's also he's more of a Brinkmann in the minute words let's go closer to the January 1st deadline rather than a month earlier now that being said if you know President Xi and President Trump exchanged his kind words we're working on the problem I mean that is encouraging certainly to the market but I would be surprised and listen I'm prepared to be surprised which when President Trump is entering into any negotiation I would be surprised if we got anything definitive between China and the US out of this meeting professor how should investors be prepared to be surprised how should they be positioned given how big this weekend is potentially well I think what's interesting is that the the words of Jay Powell a Fed Chairman on Wednesday have sort of taken that worry of fed over tightening down a number of notches so what is next on the agenda it is the the tariff war or potential tariff war with with China so clearly any sort of resolution there is is going to be positive let me let me also say that the market expects it it's not a slam dunk but I think it's you know probably 80 to 90 percent baked in so any adverse developments and I don't expect any particular to come out of this meeting would be a great disappointment and certainly if it isn't out by the end of the year if it isn't sound by the end of year the market will tolerate an extension of current levels without the ramping up but it's it would it certainly would be getting nervous if it didn't see any progress then and so given that join me up if we don't get any kind of a definitive statement or movement in trade from g20 over the weekend what matters more small signals or the bullish signals that we've seen out of some growth stocks and including you know workday VMware the tech sector has meant a lot to this extended rally that we had seen on Wall Street there have been some questions about how long-lived that would be but thus far a lot of these stocks seem to be showing increasingly positive signals about what they expect from 2019 yeah well you know I mean we saw Trump this morning with Mexico and Canada and being very conciliatory and very positive which is a good sign and I think the market is is hoping for that same sort of content conciliation with President Xi and saying we are working on problems and he said I think we will reach a solidity he has those words I think we will reach a solution that's going to pump up the market clearly but certainly I would be surprised if we saw that definitive solution actually reached at this point I mean there were they were they were miles away on so many things and in the original set of negotiations but but clearly the market is hopeful for a positive tone coming out of the interactions you