저자: ThuanCapital채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크(블랙록 CEO)의 '시장 타이밍은 불가능, 장기 보유' 견해를 소개. S&P500 20년 8배 상승 사례와 주요 상승일을 놓치면 수익이 급감한다는 점 강조. 최대 상승일은 위기 중 몰리므로 공포 매도는 손해라고 주장. 비트코인은 공급 고정·현물 ETF 확산으로 장기 자산 성격이 강해졌다고 하며, 최대 상승일을 놓치면 수익이 50~80% 줄 수 있다고 언급. AI·국방·에너지 투자 등 구조적 변화를 강조. 결론적으로 타이밍보다 장기 보유 및 실물·희소 자산 소유가 중요하다는 메시지. 거래소 제휴 링크 안내 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello, hello. Hello everyone, welcome to Thuan Capital today. Ah, there's something I want to share with you all, and that's an article, a long time ago, from March 2026. Larry Fink, the person you see on the screen, is the CEO of BlackRock, the largest investment management company in the world right now.
Larry Fink shared his opinion that there is no such thing as a time market, meaning you shouldn't try to predict the peaks or troughs. Because when you do that, you'll be constantly entering and exiting the market. And if that's the case, you might miss out on opportunities for strong growth days. And that has a significant impact on the ability to generate long-term profits.
Of course , he's saying that if you're someone who wants to invest long- term, like investing for retirement, or investing for at least 3 years, then you should think about not trying to predict the peak or the bottom. But if you're someone who only invests in day trading, that's a different story. He's saying that long-term investors shouldn't try to predict the peak or the bottom.
It's like, when the price is high, you consider when you can exit and buy back at a lower price to make a profit, and so on. So, are you guys seeing the price drop or are you holding cash and waiting for a lower price? Those are the risks involved in trying to predict the peaks and troughs; you might miss out on days when you could make a high profit.
Because, as you can see, from March until now, since Larry Fink said that, what have we seen? We see that those major indicators are consistently growing. Although there were similar concerns then as there are now regarding companies and whether or not they were bubbles. Therefore, it was the same then, and it is the same now .
To help you understand better, I've written an article, which I haven't posted yet, but I'm sharing it in this video so you can understand. Well, Larry Fink said that most investors spend too much time trying to predict short-term market movements. While history shows that wealth is often created not by spotting the peaks and troughs, but by the ability to patiently own quality assets over the long term.
Le Phin presented a very noteworthy statistic: over the past 20 years, every dollar invested in the S&P 500 index has increased by more than $8, meaning it has increased more than eightfold in the last 20 years. However, if an investor missed just 10 of the market's strongest rallies during that period, the value of that final investment could have been reduced by more than half, to only about 3.5 to 4 dollars.
If you miss the 20 days of strongest gains, your investment will only increase by about 2 to 2.5 dollars . If you miss those 30 best days, almost all the power of compound interest disappears, and the final result will only be slightly higher than the initial capital. What makes this statistic even more important is that the market's strongest upward days don't usually occur when things are going well.
In fact , it often happens right in the middle of crises, wars, economic recessions, high inflation, or periods when investors feel most anxious. In other words, those who sell in panic are often the ones who miss out on the subsequent recovery. This is one of the biggest mistakes investors are making right now.
Today's market is dominated by countless headlines about geopolitics, interest rates, inflation, AI, trade wars, and global conflicts . That causes many people to constantly enter and exit the market in the hope of finding the perfect moment. However, history shows that overreacting to short-term fluctuations often causes more harm than good.
Bitcoin is perhaps a clearer example of this point. The majority of Bitcoin's gains throughout its history have not come from steady daily increases, but rather from a very small number of sharp price surges . The strong rallies during the cycles of 2013, 2017, 2020, 2021, and after the approval of Spot ETFs, created most of the value for long-term investors.
Numerous studies show that simply missing a few of Bitcoin's biggest bull days can reduce long-term profits by more than 50%, or even over 80%, depending on the period being measured. The problem is that the biggest price surges usually occur when sentiment is still very negative. They often occur right after periods of intense selling when most investors are still doubtful or fearful.
Once things become clearer, asset prices usually rise significantly. Ray Dalio suggests that investors should spend less time predicting the next news headline and more time understanding the long-term trends shaping the global economy. Currently, the US, China, and Europe are spending trillions of dollars on defense, energy, AI, and restructuring supply chains.
This is not a short-term trend, but a structural change that could last for years or even decades. AI has the potential to become one of the biggest wealth-generating machines in modern history. However, history also shows that technological revolutions often bring the greatest benefits to those who own long-term assets.
This also happened during the Industrial Revolution, the internet boom, and the process of globalization. AI can continue to replicate that model on a larger scale, with the majority of the value created flowing into the businesses, infrastructure, financial assets, and their owners. This is why property rights are becoming increasingly important.
Whether it's stocks, real estate, businesses, infrastructure, or Bitcoin. Those who own scarce and value-creating assets may be the biggest beneficiaries of the ongoing changes. For Bitcoin, the story is very different now compared to its early years. Bitcoin is no longer seen solely as a speculative technology asset .
It has a fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoin, its spot ETFs are increasingly being included on the balance sheets of public companies, and it is attracting the attention of major financial institutions globally. Despite the continued volatility, an increasing number of investors view Bitcoin as a scarce asset to hold long-term, rather than just a short-term trading tool.
From that perspective, the biggest risk is probably not temporary price drops or short-term fluctuations. The biggest risk is probably being left out while the next wave of wealth creation is underway. And Leon Cooperman concludes in his annual letter that, in the long term, maintaining an investment is far more important than trying to time the market perfectly .
This is what Leon Cooperman shared in his annual letter . To clarify, this letter mainly shares the philosophy behind examples like the one related to Bitcoin, which I had to add so you can visualize it. But this is something Thuan really wants to share with you in this video. I hope you all gained a lot of value from this video.
For those who want to support and learn about the exclusive offers for the community of Thuan Capital, you can find out by clicking on the link below this video to discover offers such as bonuses or reduced trading fees when participating in exchanges like Bybit, OKX, XM, MEXC, Bitget, Huobi, OrangeX, Binance, Coinbase, Gemini, and several other products and services.
And for those of you who use exchanges, you should only use them for trading, and not store too much money on the exchange. And of course, that information is only for introducing products and services. Users must comply with the legal regulations of their place of residence. And Thuan will see you again in the next video. Goodbye everyone.
Comments 0