저자: RyanGrim외인터뷰출연AndrewRossSorkin · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼의 자산 거품 경고와 Shiller CAPE 40 수준(닷컴 이후 최고) 지적. Citrini 보고서의 AI 발 실업·주식 급락 시나리오 소개. Sorkin은 조정/폭락 불가피, AI 기업 과다 레버리지와 순환 투자(엔비디아-OpenAI) 우려. 방송은 부유층 분노와 연방 정부 조세 저항 등 정치 발언 전개.
다듬은 글
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond is raising alarm over the US economy while Wall Street is still on high alert after a viral viral report came out predicting impending economic doom. Now, if you're normal working-class American, that economic doom has been here for a long time already. But it looks like the rich are worried because this could impact the stock market.
So, let's talk about it a little bit. Now, one of the arguments is that AI is going to play into all of this and not in the way that you're expecting. AI is definitely going to harm jobs for ordinary people, but there's also an AI bubble that I have fully bought into, and I'll explain what I mean by that.
So, let's start with Diamond. Here's what he just told JP Morgan uh Chase investors. He says, quote, "My own view is people are getting a little comfortable that this is real. these high asset prices and high volumes and that we won't have any problems. So there absolutely are asset bubbles in the country right now.
These asset bubbles overwhelmingly impact affluent wealthy people who are invested in the stock market or who are looking at the value of their home or the equity that they've built on their home thinking that that equity is real. It is real theoretically, but it's partially pumped up through artificial forces.
And what I mean by that is when you're not building housing and there's limited supply and people desperately need housing, right? There's uh high demand. Well, that drives up the value of your home. But we need to build more housing. So you shouldn't be wedded to your equity because you should be comfortable with your equity going down just a little bit so we can have more housing supply.
Right? That's a good example. Another example of asset bubbles, take a look at the stock market. Look at stock buybacks. So when you see the value of shares go up, but you haven't really seen any change in innovation, you haven't seen any change in uh productivity. Why is the value of these shares going up?
It could be stock buybacks. It could be due to cheap money through the Federal Reserve printing, pumping liquidity into the system, you know, things like that basically. So he says you feel stupid when everyone's coining money and everyone's great. It does feel really good and when you and then when I think about all the factors taking place, I take a deep breath and say, "Watch out." Okay.
So what exactly is he referring to? Again, the stock prices of large US companies are reaching dizzying highs that really don't make much sense. And there are signs of major asset bubbles. And to understand what I mean, you have to become familiar with the uh it's called a cycllically adjusted price toearnings ratio or cape ratio.
I'm going to call it cape ratio moving forward. Right? So the ratio compares stock prices to how profit uh how much profit companies are making. So the S&P 500 recorded an average cape ratio of 40.1 in January of 2020 uh 2026. That's the highest reading since the dot crash in September of 2000. So basically what Jamie Diamond is saying right now is that the value of these assets are too high.
It's artificial. This bubble is going to burst eventually. The index's monthly cape ratio has only been that high 22 times since it was created in 1957, 829 months ago. Meaning the stock market has been so expensive less than 3% of the time in history. And so Diamond stated, quote, "I'm not assuaged by the fact that asset prices are high.
In fact, I think that adds to the risk. So, specifically, Diamond explained that he is worried about the fate of software companies if AI technology continues to improve. And that brings us to a post that was written by Citrini Research. Okay, so that was published over the weekend. Anyone paying attention to economic analysis is kind of freaking out about this report.
I want to tell you a little bit about what it said. So, it's a report that was written about a hypothetical future in which AI lives up to all of the hype, all of the expectations that we've been discussing on this show for a while and ends up disrupting the economy slashdestroying the economy as a result.
So, the speculative date of the report is June 2028, about two and a half years from now. The unemployment rate uh printed 10.2% 2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% of the number, bringing the cumulative draw down in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs. So, private credit is unraveling.
Prime mortgages are cracking. By the way, no one's paying attention to that at all other than me, apparently. But those like subprime mortgages, they've been back. And we're currently living in an economic situation where consumer debt is at an all-time high. I don't know what this is going to mean for subprime mortgages in the near future, but it's not looking good.
It should have been clear all along that a single GPU cluster in North Dakota generating the output previously attributed to 10,000 white collar workers in Midtown Manhattan is more economic pan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea. AI got better and cheaper. Companies laid off workers then used the savings to buy more AI capability which let them lay off more workers.
Displaced workers spent less. Companies that sell things to consumers sold fewer of them, weakened and invested more in AI to protect margins. AI got better and cheaper. A feedback loop with no natural break. So, what this report describes is widespread job loss. We've been worried about that. plummeting wages, a crisis of mortgages because if you don't have a job, how are you going to pay your mortgage?
If you have a subprime mortgage, you're probably going to be in a lot more trouble. And also a blood bath of companies suddenly rendered obsolete due to AI technology. Not good right now. Apparently, the report struck a nerve. Every stock that this report mentioned by name was down in afternoon trading on Monday.
the co-founder of Door Dash for instance uh one of the companies that uh went extinct in this analysis carried out by Catrini even came out and publicly addressed the report. What did they say in the report? Door Dash is destroyed because AI agents are able to code a plethora of alternative delivery apps.
Those same AI agents then direct customers to apps that can undercut Door Dash's pricing model. And so Andy Fang, Door Dash's co-founder, stated that the company is aware of the changes that AI technologies will bring forth and working very hard to stay on top of those changes. Okay, we'll see. So all of this leads to a big question.
If these predictions of an economic apocalypse are correct, when exactly is this going to happen? When can we expect it to come true? And interestingly enough, that was a hard question that was asked to uh CNBC anchor and journalist Andrew Ross Sorcin, who just wrote a book about the 1929 stock market crash.
Let's hear what he has to say about all of this. I think we are invariably headed towards some kind of correction, if not worse. And if you look at where our economy is today, given all the spending that's going on in artificial intelligence, somewhat indiscriminately, I would add at valuations that are, you know, shocking.
The rubber will meet the road at some point. Charles Merrill, who founded Meil Lynch back in 1928, told people to get out of the market. Now, you might think that was a brilliant thought, except for the fact that from the beginning of 1928 to September of 1929, the stock market went up 90%. You It's not just knowing that there's going to be, you know, a correction of some sort or a crash.
It's getting the timing right and knowing when to get on, off, and on the train again. You know, when it comes to AI, something to kind of look out for is some of these AI companies are like devastatingly overleveraged, meaning that they've taken out a tremendous amount of debt, more debt than their companies are worth.
So, when you talk about the AI bubble, that's what people are referring to. Um, and when you look at what transpired before the Great Depression, people were literally taking out debt in order to invest in the stock market. So uh people were overleveraged in order to play part in a stock market that looked amazing but in reality you know you notice similar trends in terms of asset bubbles in the leadup to the great depression.
So uh timing aside believes that we are eventually headed for a crash and that's in part due to the circular spending in the AI space. He explains more in the next clip. So, OpenAI, you know, just made a hundred billion dollar commitment to Nvidia. It doesn't have a hundred billion dollars to commit.
So, what's happened here? Nvidia said, "You know what? We'll finance you." So, effectively, Nvidia is giving OpenAI the money that OpenAI is going to give back to Nvidia. Well, are you suggesting that's a scam or are you suggesting that the timing of the way leverage works and being paid back is such that it causes these disruptions, depressions possibly or corrections more optimistically, if you get to a terrible moment, it's the leverage which which sucks the confidence out of the system because it's not just that there's a correction in the system.
Meaning, it's not just that some of these stocks fall by 20 or 30%. It's that if you're leveraged, you owe three and four times that. Then you can't come back. And you can't come back. Is that where we are? I think that's where we are probably right now. Now, if that isn't concerning enough, uh in this next clip, you're going to hear the most haunting portion of the interview if you ask me because in this clip, Sorcin is going to describe his interactions with the mega rich people who are in control of the economy as we speak.
What are those conversations like? What are those exchanges like? He's about to tell you. They ultimately believe that ending inequality is also ending is is an end to to their potentially to to their an end to their affluence. It's it's funny for all the talk about, you know, increasing the size of the pie.
Yeah. I think they also recognize that there might only be one size of the pie and who's taking which piece is the question. But they don't sense the resentment, much less hatred. Oh, I think that they Oh, I think that they they clearly get the resentment and the hatred. By the way, most of these people feel very alone in that way.
I see you wiping a tear away from the corner of your eye. No, I'm No, I'm not. I'm just I'm just suggesting that I think when when you when you think about these these people at the very top, I actually think they're very cognizant of the resentment. Certain people have taken a position that they just don't care.
Okay, great. I mean, if they don't care, then let's just say it with our whole chest. Uh, we don't just resent them. We hate them. They've destroyed this country and this economy. Many of them are the same crooks who have dragged this country into wars that we shouldn't be involved in on behalf of Israel.
These are the worst people in the country. They don't love the country. They just see everything about what can I get out of it? How could I benefit from this? Screw the American people. These are the people who have been enabled by our political elite, who have been bought by the corporate class, right?
The Epstein class. These are the donors. These are the Oh, they feel so lonely. A lot of them are being outed right now in the Epstein files, which is great. I hope one day they feel lonely in a prison cell. But for now, unfortunately, we have to deal with them because we have a political class that doesn't want to reign them in at all because they're bought by them.
Anyway, uh story just broke. We're going to do a longer piece on this tomorrow. Uh I want to do it with Jenk and I want to like really do my research on it. But um JD Vance just announced that uh the Trump administration will be suspending Medicaid payments entirely to the state of Minnesota. I believe the state of Minnesota and any state that is denied these resources should immediately suspend their federal taxes.
Why am I paying this piece of crap, useless federal government and getting nothing out of it? F the government. Stop paying your federal taxes. These people don't deserve a freaking dime. Every time you ring the bell below, an angel gets his wings. Totally not true, but it does keep you updated on our live shows.
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