Ray Dalio: The Recession Will Be Worse Than You Can Imagine

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결론: 달리오는 통화·채권 자산에 대한 신뢰가 흔들리는 패러다임 전환이 진행 중이며, 인플레이션과 긴축의 딜레마로 스태그플레이션성 침체가 올 가능성이 크다고 본다. 통화와 부채: 모든 통화는 부채이므로 통화를 보유하는 것은 부채상품을 보유하는 것이다. 과잉 인쇄로 통화 가치는 다른 자산 대비 하락할 것이며, 미 달러가 다른 통화보다 더 하락할지는 확실하지 않다. 준비통화 변화: 중국 위안화와 인도-러시아 간 직접 통화 결제 등으로 준비통화 구도가 바뀌고 있다. 교환 수단과 가치저장 수단으로서의 달러 역할, 특히 저장 기능에 문제가 생기고 있다. 대체 화폐: 암호화폐, 금, 디지털 화폐(CBDC 등)가 여러 화폐와 경쟁할 환경이 올 수 있다고 본다. 비트코인과 금에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없다. 채권과 금리: 40년 채권 강세장이 끝나가고 있으며 채권 매도가 인플레이션을 더 자극한다. 금리를 2% 이상으로 올리면 자본시장이 압박받고, 테크 등 장기 듀레이션 위험자산의 매력이 떨어진다. 미국채 10년 금리는 상승 방향으로 본 것으로 해석된다. 인플레이션과 연준: 물가는 여전히 높은데 긴축이 시장과 경기에 과도하다는 딜레마로 연준이 어려운 위치에 놓인다. 1년 뒤에도 인플레이션이 높게 남을 수 있다고 본다. 스태그플레이션 전망: 정책 당국은 인플레이션 억제와 경기 침체 사이에서 진퇴양난이며, 가장 가능성 높은 시나리오는 정체(스태그네이션) 기간이다. 채권펀드의 마이너스 수익 상황에서 보유 지속 여부가 문제다. 포트폴리오: 현금·채권·주식의 상대 수익률 관계를 고려해 이런 환경에 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 짜야 한다. 주식은 현재가치 기준 기대수익률이 채권과 큰 차이가 없어 매력이 낮아질 수 있다. 사회·정치 리스크: 부의 격차와 기회 격차가 생산성 저하와 내부 갈등을 키우며, 좌우 포퓰리즘이 심화되고 2024년 선거 결과를 양측이 수용하지 않을 가능성까지 언급했다. 내부 갈등이 경제에 큰 영향을 줄 것이라고 경고한다. 결론적으로 본 영상은 구체적 종목 매매 지시보다는 거시 패러다임 경고에 가깝다.

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01. i think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in debt instruments and um do you want to own that as an asset i i think i think they're bad assets and so uh and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with um what is money what is money is uh is the dollar going to remain um the same sort of reserve currency and then you see the development of alternative monies we're seeing a variety i think different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're in um some maybe it's um crypto maybe it's uh maybe it's gold maybe it's um other things uh maybe the digital or mmb competes with um the us dollar we're gonna come into an environment because everybody thinks that there's think about how much money is being stored in debt instruments those debt assets think about how poor those returns are so that kind of a shift i think is very important all currencies have a lot of debt and so when you look at one relative to the other there will be a lot of printing i mean currency equals debt and when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will um decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment and whereas there's a shifting of the those currencies so you're going to see more of china's ram and b being used you're seeing uh india have a direct link uh with russia on the uh currency so we're an important change in the currency but how that is a store of wealth is a different question so uh a currency is a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and its storehold of wealth is now a problem particularly for the dollar but it's also a problem for other countries so that's why you have inflation as money goes into other things and and the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate then it courage encourages the borrowing of money and the and the sale of money in other words not holding financial assets like that so that's yes i think you're changing the nature of what money is and what the dollar is as a storehold of wealth we're beginning a paradigm shift a paradigm shift is a shift from a mindset one mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that so for example the mindset that we were in was that when you have low inflation and when you're owning bonds and you're owning cash or um you are operating one way um and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of the houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that it makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount of debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the federal reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people make wage settlements that um and such things so a paradigm shift is beginning to take place and that will be also self-reinforcing and it's taking place in this context of the conflict which uh then creates the breakdown of um efficient systems each country wants to be self-sufficient it needs to to protect itself and in being self-sufficient in that way then you have less efficiencies in the system um and all of that becomes self-reinforcing so um it's all happened before it's all happened many many times before yeah i'm concerned about that it's funny because you know everybody says um okay it'll be seven increases or something like that and that sounds like a lot uh but you're taking interest rates up to something like two percent and that two percent um which starts to squeeze the capital market so it starts to make it more difficult for a holder of equities because the equity when when you raise the return on bonds and you raise the return on cash and you tighten money then that makes um other assets less attractive such as risky assets particularly long-duration assets like tech stocks and the like so you produce that's that squeeze yes but that's still only at two percent or a little bit over two percent with an inflation rate which is considerably higher than that we've had a seven percent inflation rate and we'll probably settle um it'll be uh a five percent issue or something and so you're still losing that money to inflation people are so what you have is an um enough tightening by the federal reserve to deal with inflation adequately is too much tightening for the markets and the economy so the fed is going to be in a very difficult place a year from now as inflation still remains high and it starts to pinch on both the markets and the economy here's the problem if you're borrowing more money than you're lending and you have a lot of debt you either are going to pay back in hard money or in soft money and so it creates a very difficult trade-off um so what can you do do you spend less money so that the trade-off becomes more and more difficult and that's what is brings about a stagflation environment because they try to navigate between those two undesirables in other words they want to contain inflation but too high of an interest rate that's good enough for inflation causes too much economic environment so what can they do no they're in a position already because of that dynamic spending more than they're earning creation of a lot more debt and a lot of other debt which one man's debts are another man's assets and that as the holder of that assets is losing money imagine holding a bond now and look at how much money is in bond funds and cash okay not only um in cash you don't get any return to compensate for the interest rate and in your bond fund you get negative returns and how's that feel so are you going to continue to hold those bonds in that bond fund it's a it's a dynamic that they have to deal with that is really beyond their capacity to deal with it they can't change those fundamentals um i think that most likely what we're have going to have is a period of stagnation and then you have to understand how to build a portfolio that's balanced um for that kind of environment there's a there's a whole um relationship between cash bond yields and equity returns so every investment is in exchange of a lump sum payment for a future cash flow and so the cost of money is a consideration based up relative to the return on money and so when we look at that return when we say i can hold cash or i can hold a bond that changes the inclination to hold cash but also one has to look at the return on expected return on equities in other words one calculates the present value of future cash flows you estimate what are those earnings going to be in the future and what are they worth today and so bond stocks are now um having expected returns which are not very much more than bonds which would be not very much more than cash so as that happens so that why should i own equities uh farther out you know and have the volatility of equities so that shift in the curve in other words the relationship between cash bonds and then the relationship between bonds and equities and the relationship for corporations between the rates at which they borrow at and the rates of that which they can earn money at have a pervasive effect on the economy and the markets so no it's important to take a look at that relationship that yield curve structure that way but um you should go beyond that and include the returns of other assets what can you do in the way of generating returns relative to the costs of uh money the relative attractiveness of those instruments you have to have an economy in which uh the people believe you that you have a fair system and you have to have productivity so i would say the most important thing is the redistribution of opportunity to make people productive and to eliminate the internal conflict or to reduce the internal conflict which can be so disruptive when you see large wealth gaps and at the same time you see economic problems you have a lot of internal conflict and that internal conflict is bad economically and it's bad socially so yes i think it but it's not just the wealth gap it is the productivity level that results so um yeah the wealth gap is a problem the opportunity gap is a problem the productivity that um allows and productivity can be measured in what you earn relative to what you spend so yes all of that um that gap isn't is an issue and it's certainly going to be a political issue so when we talk about markets and the economy and all of these things we have to realize for example that um there's a great internal politics populism of the left and populism of the right and the polarity is becoming greater it's entirely possible that neither side accepts losing the uh 2024 elections in other words that we lose um though that well the democracy in a sense you could um find ourselves in a situation where the rules no longer apply because of that type of internal conflict internal conflict will have a big effect you