저자: StarbucksCEOLaxmanNarasimhan · 외국인
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스타벅스 2023년 4분기 실적이 월가 예상을 상회했다는 점을 출발점으로 한다. 매출은 8% 증가했고, 객단가 상승과 매장 방문객 3% 증가가 이를 뒷받침했다. 미국 매출도 애널리스트 기대치를 웃돌았다. 차트 분석에서는 실적 발표 후 갭상승으로 올해 5월부터 이어진 하락추세가 무효화되었다고 본다. 월봉 기준 상단은 약 116달러, 하단은 2022년 5월 저점인 약 68달러로 제시했다. 주봉에서는 현재 횡보 중이며, 200일 이동평균선 위에서 마감했고 단기 모멘텀 지표는 상승으로 전환 중이다. 다만 7월에 데드크로스가 있었다. 첫 저항은 약 104달러로 보며, 이를 넘으면 추가 상승이 가능하다고 봤다. 주봉의 약 106달러 부근은 매도 대기 구간으로, 9월 저점 90달러 부근에서 진입했다면 지금 일부 차익실현을 고려할 만하고 약 5달러 위도 기회라고 언급했다. CEO 발언 요지: 중국은 2024년까지 9,000개 매장 목표를 갖고 있으며 현재 500여 개 도시에 진출해 있다. 인도 매장은 약 365개, 중국 항저우는 440개다. 미국은 아직 포화 상태가 아니며, 2025년 배달 전용 매장 비중을 40%로 높일 계획이다. 리워드 회원을 두 배로 늘리고, 장기적으로 comp 5% 이상, 매출 10% 이상, 이익 15% 이상 성장을 목표로 한다. 2024년 가이던스는 comp 5~7%, 매출 10~12%, EPS 15~20% 성장이다. 리스크: 미국 매장 처리량 문제와 운영 효율 개선이 과제이며, 목표 대비 실행 여부가 관건이다. 또한 중국 현지 경쟁과 소비 둔화 가능성도 존재한다. 출연자 전망: 진행자 Jim Cramer는 스타벅스를 자신의 차트 신탁 주요 보유 종목으로 언급하며 긍정적이다. 차트 분석자는 104달러 돌파 시 상승을 기대하지만, 106달러 부근에서는 차익실현을 고려하라고 조언했다.
다듬은 글
Starbucks just reported their quarterly earnings and revenues beat Wall Street estimates the company St Source sales Rose 8% fueled by higher average checks and a 3% increase in customer traffic to its stores the coffee giant Us locations also outperform analyst expectations now this is the monthly chart and if we look at the most recent highs and lows it gets us to about 116 on thep tops side and uh $68 on the downside which happens to be the uh May 2022 lows now scrolling down to the weekly chart we can see that um because of the great earnings price gapped higher also invalidated the downtrend that was started back in uh May of this year as price was making lower highs and lower lows however again the Gap higher invalidates this downtrend and right now we have a sideways price action taking place right now uh before we continue with the analysis let's watch this video in which Jim Kramer discusses the Q4 results with the CEO at Starbucks this is the most exciting time I can recall in years for Starbucks and it starts on a trific day at the stores think about it Jim thank you by the way for having me on today is the day all our stores in many countries turned red I started in a store at 6:00 a.m.
the backdrop was red the aprons were red today's the day we start holiday and we share the joy and do you know the flavor for the season for us well I just finished pumpkin so give it to me pumpkin may still be available for you but the flavor of the Season gym is gingerbread gingerbread chai a big recommendation I know you're a triple venti cappuccino with skim milk guy you're going to try it's pretty Amy you do my trick but you know gingerbread chai and in some places you got to call a gingerbread chai tea latte I get a lot of mail about this don't call it chai tea but it's gingerbread chai okay I want to start with that because you are a product guy and a person who knows what people love but you also know what people love worldwide that's why in many ways I think you're unique you know what people like say in Italy in Italy can you imagine this first of all the genius of hars um he goes there sees the spirit of Italy and he brings it to the US and introduces Americans to the routine of Italian coffee then we gingerly go back to Italy and he creates this Temple the Milan roast stre it's an incredible Temple to coffee and it's stunning the way it does I went there and I was completely blown away by how good it was then we go even more gingerly saying you know maybe not we've opened 20 stores in Italy do you know the number one skew there the espresso the espresso at a Starbucks in Italy so if I go if I have a Starbucks uh in many different countries I may find the best of what that country does at Starbucks completely you know we have uh we buy coffee from over 500,000 Farmers all over the world and uh when you go to that country you will find coffee from that country as well if they grow it now let's talk China for a second I know that you've done integration backward integration with China in terms of roaster and I think that's very important because a lot of people are saying wait a second China I'm worried but are are the Chinese against someone who is by China for China well first of all China is a tea drinking country when we went there in 1999 Howard went there and he said I'm going to commit to building the specialty coffee industry there so what are we doing now we are helping them grow coffee in Yan we just opened this big Factory it's the best and most advanced most green Factory you can think of with a very Advanced Distribution Center it ensures freshness of products and after 24 years we've moved the per caps to 12 cups per person so think of it Japan's at 280 and the US is at 380 if you go to Shanghai it's somewhere between 100 and 150 and the reason it's that high in Shanghai is because there were 1150 Starbucks in Shanghai and just so you know I think there's potential in Shanghai for us can you double what you need what you have in China and still not saate the market we've only said that we would grow to 9,000 by the end of 25 and I'll tell you this that is just a milestone there are 3,000 you know uh provincial cities as they would call it we're only in 500 going to 800 soon there's a city in a in a province called uh Anu it's called Tong Chang it has a population of 700,000 people there's no Starbucks in there and there'll be one in uh in 2024 that's incredible now so I think this is one where we can actually continue to grow you know we have 440 stores in hango and we only have 365 stores or so in India well and your fam with the Indian market I mean theoretically once you convince people of how great triple ventes are it could that could what go 10x I think to me when I think about what we're saying internationally you know is the opportunity is really large you know we think that uh we could be over 55,000 stores you know we're going to be opening three out of four stores outside of the US but that doesn't take away from the opportunity we have in the US well let's talk about that because people were there were people who said wait a second they missed the number I think you missed the number probably by 10 cups of coffee eight eight last time but I care about consistency and you know that to me the place that needs more Starbucks is the place where I always have to be in a line which is the United States can you solve that problem a throughput problem by the way an ice problem for when I get my my mid morning or afternoon Starbucks so by the way first of all it's I'm really glad to know that at 10:00 a.m.
you're now onto iced J I have to that's what all the younger consumers are doing and I'm really glad to see that you're doing it too well if you look at demand in the US the demand in the US is very strong for us um and we're doing everything we can to ensure that we beat it um how are we doing that well first of all um we are really investing in the operational foundation in our stores and we made great progress over the course of the last year fixing the processes bringing in equipment like the portable cold for blender working and reworking you know how we do drive-throughs drive-through times coming down and also working on Staffing and scheduling now you've been a restaurant owner so you know how important that is and if you just look at wages and you look at hours the average Barista at of Starbucks today versus a year ago is making 20% more what it's doing for us it's bringing more stability into our operations our tenure is going up has gone up 16% over the course of the last year so by bringing stability by bringing operating consistency and discipline in the stores and by bringing in equipment and accelerating Renovations we're going to be accelerating Renovations as well as part of our plan but doesn't take away from new stores we're going to build new stores too and these stores are going to be purpose defined so by 2025 40% of our delivery volume will come from delivery Only Stores it takes away that are going to do this I thought that was in the agenda a few years ago it seemed to have been left by the wayside but Co does a lot and I think what we're doing now is you got to appreciate that you know we're committed to doing this and we're going to build purpose defined stores here in the US Plus in the US you go to smaller towns mediumsized towns and you you see the migration of people we are not saturated in America Jim okay so Starbucks is a huge position for my Char trust and one of the reason why we do that appreciate that of course sir of course is that we like the consistency of your actual numbers now I want to be sure there was a sense from some of the analyst that you did lower your numbers from when we talked with your company last September I think what you did was make it so that you have reasonable numbers that won't be in the way correct I think what we've done is first of all we delivered this year at uh 12% growth 14% without Forex uh with a 20% growth in EPS that's for FY 23 that was the top end of our range right as we look into this year fy2 24 a comps of 5 to 7% our growth is 10 to 12% which is what we had said last year and the earnings growth is 15 to 20% we see a more balanced way to go because we clearly see opportunities with efficiency in addition to the growth so it's a balanced way for us to essentially establish what the targets are for next year okay now as I look longterm as I look really long term what we want to do is set an algorithm out there see that's a long-term growth we'll set expectations every year and what we are building this company too with the momentum it has with the strength it has with the power of this brand is we're building a business that in the long term we'll have a comp of 5% or greater we'll have 10% or greater and we have an earnings growth of 15% or greater and every year we will set guidance as it comes okay now those numbers are important for people but you know what might feel also important and it might be uncomfortable with this because you speak of we and you know Partners but you yourself your background is unique for this you are a perfect Ambassador for a company like Starbucks you're a person of the world you have a great background can you just give us a sense of who you are to lead Starbucks well first of all my wife would be upset if I told you this but I will you know we are now in our 25th home in 30 years of marriage and part of it is because we've had a very Global career so we've lived all over I come from India um I've clearly um you know I came here to this country with nothing um two suitc cases and a pressure cooker because my mother thought I wouldn't eat well and you know it's a real privilege to lead Starbucks and to lead the 460,000 people from around the world I've lived and worked pretty much all over the place 19 years as an advisor and cons consultant I went to PepsiCo for 7even years variety of different markets I was at record for north of 3 years and then from London I moved to Seattle the weather's similar but you know this is an incredible brand you also seem to be as home with consumer packaged goods and coffee as also technology you've got a bit of the technologist in you and that's going to be very important whether it be through throughput or what the stores look like or just kind of a staying on top of things you know our business is not just a physical business it's is also a digital business we connect with our customers digitally one of the things we announced today is you know we have 75 million customers that buy us over a 90-day period but the number of people that we connect with is almost three times that now what we have is a remarkable ability for us to actually advance that so what we've said today is we're going to double the number of the Starbucks rewards members over the course of the can you do that you know that the consumer strong enough to do that the consumer worldwide but you know you see the growth rate in China 22 million on Starbucks rewards and it's grown double digits if you look at the Starbucks digital Solutions which is our platform globally we're building this platform globally along with our partners they are coming to the app they are coming to our Rewards program and it gives us a great base of knowledge and insights now that's not just enough as I get back into how we think about the partner experience and the customer experience we've always been at the Leading Edge in terms of Technology now with this generational change that's taking place we have sped up our launches of features it's now every two weeks second we are working with some of the technology Pioneers on how we bring gen into our business you know over the last 5 years we built our own Ai and machine language uh platform machine learning platform which is called DBW we're going to power out DBW with Gen to take what customers might think about in terms of products and Trends bring it into how customers order help the buddist to build it and then link it to marketing so the marketing that we do basically closes the loop we're doing that in addition to that we're working you know with Apple products you with apple in an innovation store yes which with on with the with the Vision Pro which no with with with a bunch of the actual products that you use the the iPad the I Pro and so on in stores to help us improve the partner experience excellent with Gen we're collaborating with Microsoft you know we have a deep partnership with Microsoft we bringing them in and um on payments we've been working with Amazon and uh so we're going to continue to extend the experience about how you walk off you know without having to go through checkout and the like a essal story now are you satisfied with the reinvention as it's going right now I think I am I think we are ahead of plan on reinvention and what we've done now is we've triple shotted it so the triple shot reinvention and by the way like a Starbucks order it's got two pumps so the triple shot reinvention is about brand elevating the brand it's about digital scaling and strengthening digital it's about global we just talked about the Fantastic option have Global now but we need two pumps because it's the classic Starbucks order so the first pump is efficiency right we talked about the 3 billion efficiency program and the most important pump of all is the partner culture we've done a great job in terms of rolling out our mission promises our values to our partners we live our life through our partners and through their eyes and so it's really important that we reinvigorate that too all right well that's a great way to end it that's luxman n Simon he's the CE of Starbucks and now you I will treat you to a gingerbread CH thank you so much thank you so as I discussed before the video this was the Gap higher on Thursday and then on Friday uh we had another um Green Day um and what's also important to notice is that price closed above the 200 day moving average although you did have a de cross that occurred back in July um as you can see we have the momentum moving averages this is the 13 and the 26 starting to point up you also have the 50-day moving average kinking up as well so how far can price go well the first test is going to be this 104 level um which is why price pulled back from um near the the day's um highs uh so beyond that based on this momentum I think price is going to move um higher this was that level we saw on the monthly chart you have a gap fill let's zoom out to the weekly yeah at the moment I'm going to say that um we have to look at this level can't ignore this level and it's not the best of levels however what you can see is you have a drop in price two Basin candles and a drop so that's a Le in b basing candles leg out price tried to come back to that area but couldn't and then fell down so this level is valid where sellers are waiting for Price we're going to say that's the 10 we'll call it the 106 level so if you happen to get in um near the uh lows in September at $90 um it's not a bad opportunity to take some off the table now or uh roughly $5 higher
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