저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 2021년은 록다운 종료와 V자 회복으로 글로벌 증시와 이머징마켓(특히 인도)이 강세를 보일 것이라는 낙관적 전망이다. 거시 환경: 록다운은 사회에 해악이 크며 백신·치료제 개발로 올해 말 종료될 것으로 본다. 2021년 경제는 V자 회복이 예상된다. 미국 정책: 바이든 행정부 하에서 미중 긴장은 완화될 가능성이 크고, 공화당 상원·약화된 민주당 하원 구도상 증세 가능성은 낮아 증시에 긍정적이라고 본다. 증시 전망: 록다운이 지수를 밀어 올렸는데, 인터넷 기업의 지수 비중이 커 록다운이 오히려 지수에 우호적이었다고 본다. 2021년에도 선진 증시는 상승하겠지만 올해만큼은 아닐 것으로 본다. 이머징 전망: 중국은 이미 무역흑자로 회복 중이며, 이머징 통화들이 달러 대비 강세를 보이고 있다. 인플레이션 우려에 대해서는 기술 발전에 따른 디플레이션 세계관을 강조하며 인플레이션을 걱정하지 않는다고 말한다. 인도: 젊은 인구, 생산성 향상, 기술 도입이 강점이며 중국 대비 낮은 기저로 성장 여력이 크다. 인도 증시는 2021년에도 건강한 한 해가 될 것이라고 본다. 제조업 재도약(차이나 플러스 원) 기대와 정부 PLI 정책을 언급하며 다국적 기업의 투자 약속이 있다고 평가한다. 원자재·리스크: 유가는 현재 수준에서 완만히 오를 것으로 보며 이는 인도에도 수용 가능한 수준이라 본다. 이란 제재 완화 시 공급 증가 가능성은 있으나 수요 회복이 이를 상쇄할 것으로 판단한다. 주요 리스크로는 예기치 못한 사건을 언급했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 가치와 성장 모두 필요하며 ESG 중 지배구조 개선을 중시한다. 실물경제 가치주는 기술 도입 기업이 나아질 것이라 본다.
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well thanks for tuning in to this episode of navigating through uncertainty you might be wondering that why around the time of diwali are we talking about uncertainty well if you look at the globe at large uh it does look that uncertainty is starting to creep back in and that is what our expert today on the show uh really dwells upon his views on emerging markets at large but the global perspective is is is very very welcome in times like these and mr mark mobius johnson right now to talk about his thoughts on the world as he sees it um good having you mr mobius thank you so much for taking the time out hope all is safe uh yes and happy diwali to everyone i hope you can enjoy that holiday uh despite the lockdown yes uh i certainly hope so too that i do that and all my fellow indians do that too uh mr mobius let's get straight to the point what's your sense about how do you see the world right now because um there are two or three things that are happening one that as we were starting to emerge out of lockdowns in the world there seems to be a second wave of sorts starting to creep in in the western hemisphere we have a new president elect in the u.s and uh and and things in the eastern world don't seem to be all that bad now compared to what the situation was maybe three months ago how do you put all of this into perspective well i think one of the first things you must remember that the lockdowns have been very very harmful for society in general and i don't believe that the governments around the world who have involved been involved in these lockdowns have truly monitored the impact on the lockdown such as children not going to school and losing a very very important education people that need operations are not getting them and so forth and so on so i believe an end of lockdowns would be very very important to get economies on the road again and i noticed that in india this is happening the good news of course is that a vaccine has been found and more vaccines will be coming out and available to people around the world and also treatments have been found for coven so by the end of this year i believe you're going to see an end of lockdowns and next year will be a v-shaped recovery in economies around the world so we have a lot to be thankful for and i believe that we're headed into a very very bullish environment next year as regards to the change in administration in the u.s of course the tension between china and the u.s will probably be much less under the biden administration but i was fearful uh when the election was taking place that a biden administration would result in higher taxes in the u.s and that would be bad for the markets but now that we have a still a republican congress and a house that is democrat but weakened democrats we probably will not be able to see a increase in taxes in the us which will be good for the markets would you would you therefore say mr mobius that from an equity watchers perspective we've kind of gotten the best of both worlds the trade tensions don't ricochet higher but come off a little bit and the possibilities of the tax uptakes also go down and a word on the stimulus as well because i think nancy pelosi yesterday has asked because of the rising cases a fresh amount of stimulus any which means uh yes i think you know a lot of the politicians in the us have been looking for higher lockdowns more lockdowns more restrictions but i don't think the population will tolerate that any longer lockdowns are questionable in terms of effectiveness and there are many other ways to do this without having such a very severe impact on society for example here i'm in dubai um people all wear masks of course but they're doing their business as usual they're moving around they're in shopping malls and so forth and so on there's no necessity to have such a severe restriction on people's freedom right just one quick follow-up on that though i i take on board your point sir that uh we are heading for a v-shaped possible weak shape recovery next year but the ensuing period i mean all the headlines that i read last night or early this morning as well seem to suggest on twitter and on bloomberg.com that the western governments individual states individual small countries are all talking about lockdowns may be lasting through christmas i mean i i miss merkel is warned about that too would you could that be a possibility that in the ensuing period until the next year we might have a few drawdowns in equity markets because of these lockdowns uh no not necessarily because you must remember uh the lockdowns actually have pushed the markets up not down and the reason why i say that is that if you look at the major indices uh the weight of the internet companies is very very big and those companies do very well during the lockdowns people have to use the internet to shop and to communicate as we are doing now so the the internet tech companies do very well so uh lockdown does not necessarily hurt the index as i mentioned the internet companies are very very big uh weighting in the index okay that's a perspective so now let's let's uh get to one of the few things that i really want to know from you uh there is a belief that even if the western world doesn't do as well the em world will do much better and if of course the global markets at large led by the us continue to do well then that's an added bonus uh what's your sense on how would ems do in in 2021 and would it be largely primarily a liquidity-driven rally or would you reckon that economic growth would come back with a bank uh well i think the emerging markets already are doing better as you know china china is now on its feet china is now producing and has a trade surplus in fact this trade surplus has been growing so uh these countries in asia india of course is growing at a good rate now is recovering nicely and you must remember that this year all the countries will show negative numbers in terms of gdp but next year you'll see recovery and you're beginning to see that recovery already so i think the emerging markets are going to be doing well they already are doing well and you can see many of the currencies are getting stronger against the us dollar so that's uh a very bright scenario for the emerging markets any any fears to that theory may be rising inflation numbers coming back in india there are hints of that maybe world of warcraft prices are rising too could that poop the party uh it's interesting you mentioned that because it gives me a chance to uh have a plug on my book i have a new book called the inflation myth and the wonderful world of deflation i believe we are in a deflationary world because of technology things are getting cheaper and more available to people around the world so i i'm not worried about inflation at all ah now can you tell us a bit about that book i'm really interested in knowing a bit about it yeah it's a book that i started when i recognize that the inflation statistics are flawed there's lots of errors in inflation statistics and they really don't reflect what is actually going on and it doesn't show the incredible strides being made by technology so i decided to write the book and then i realized that actually we are in a depletion which i believe is very very good for mankind okay what is the book title mr mobius part one of my question is that part two is would you reckon that even if crop prices were to move up they will not move up to levels which could be alarming and they will eventually come off it's the book is called the inflation myth and yes prices rise but that's reflecting a devaluation of the currency that's really what we're seeing so and you must remember prices rise but incomes also rise so people can afford these rising prices now of course there are leads and lags and some people will say oh no my salary is saying the same but this has gone up that's gone up but they failed to reflect that in many cases prices have actually gone down and that's the effect i call the amazon effect okay so lower prices lower interest rates ample liquidity the state is set for risk assets i reckon would you believe that even if the pace of this rebound slows down 2021 would be a year that would largely be a year of equity gains because i mean we haven't had economic growth and still have had this rebound could we do both which is that economies grow and the markets grow at the same time in 2021.
well you've got to be careful there because we've already seen a big increase in equity markets which uh was a precursor to the growth in the economies next year in other words the market is telling us what's going to happen next year so i believe that next year still the markets will do well but probably not as well as they did this year because we've seen tremendous gains probably with the exception of emerging markets will be moving ahead very nicely okay could you talk a bit about india mr movie is diwali time everybody is wanting to hear as many important views as possible what's your sense on uh how is india plays uh india is placed very well uh a young population uh lots of uh productivity gains uh technology is coming in at a rapid pace so india is going to be in a very good position next year uh you must remember compared to china india is starting from a lower base so the chances of increases and growth is much better in india than in china domestic fuel or would you reckon this whole china plus one narrative that is dominating discussions could also add a dimension of growth and benefits for countries like india uh yes of course you know china uh has to diversify their manufacturing base because wages in china are going up of course trade wars also have an impact as we've seen with the u.s and china so more and more manufacturers are looking places like china to diversify their manufacturing yeah but are you seeing evidence of some of that benefiting india because when we read research reports mr mobius they all talk about how india is a beneficiary but on a very small scale but i do see the government of india trying to put up its best foot forward in the last six years by this production linked incentive schemes and labor reforms etc do you see a tangible change or a possibilities of a change of more companies and now starting to invest in india instead of just from southeast asia definitely you've seen that already you've seen companies wanting to commit billions of dollars to india but now it's very important for the indian government to simplify the processes reduce the licensing requirements and make it much easier for people to come in but definitely a number of multinational companies have voiced their commitment to put billions of dollars into the indian economy so that coupled with the earnings growth would you reckon that because you're bullish on ems at large would you reckon that indian markets because of all the factors that you just said may have a healthy 2021 maybe not as healthy as the moon that we've seen from 7500 to 12500 for the nifty but still a healthy enough year for the markets yes definitely it will be a healthy market in my view uh because the economy will be doing much better on a relative cases sir uh india versus some of the other competing markets how does it rank india ranks high with us in fact india is the heaviest waiting country waiting in our funds right now so that gives you some indication okay and and and i'm just trying to understand a lot of people are calling for how while services and financial services i.t services etc have dominated india now for the last decade of sorts manufacturing could make it make a comeback are you and your friends trying to kind of make that change in the indian investing landscape well yes the manufacturing uh companies uh are a challenge now with technology and those companies that do not adopt technology uh will be in trouble so this is where we differentiate uh those technology savvy companies manufacturing companies and those that are not so that this is something that we have to watch very very carefully uh the other factor of course is esg environmental social and governance standards we particularly focused on governance helping companies to improve their governance because with good governance you can do more with the environment and social standards so indian companies are moving ahead in that way and improving their esg scoring okay uh that would be very very prevalent in i believe some of the services companies mr mobius and the decade gone by has been a lost ticket of value of sorts and the real economy stocks in india haven't quite given any returns do you sense a change in 2021 but in real economy link stocks could actually do much better is that a possibility yes those that adopt technology will do better there's no question about that some of them already are doing better but with the end of lockdowns of course many of those will really uh rise from the ashes and do very very well but could it be the year of value or do you reckon growth will crime never mind the valuation you've got to have value and and growth really value without growth is meaningless so we look at both growth and value aside of what the government needs to do mr mobius are there other dangers to a possible indian rally of course there are always surprises uh there's always a possibility of something happening uh but i think at this stage the challenges have already been known pretty well we have been through this covet process and i believe we're in pretty good shape globally okay one last question uh sir and that's on oil that's the big variable for india uh the belief was that job island administration might let iran come into the fold and that might have a downward pressure on prices which might actually occur well for india where are you on on that one big variable oil yeah that's a very very good point uh because with the byte administration biden may go back to the obama program for iran and that would mean more iranian oil on the market but you must balance that against the fact that with the end of covid you end the end of lockdowns demand for oil will increase so i my view is that the oil prices will continue to be around this level and maybe creep up another 10 15 20 uh but that's about where we can see them and that may not hurt countries like india because those are acceptable prices exactly uh one one any any last words of wisdom mr mobius it's been an eventful year one key learning that you had which you would want to impart to others including me so i don't have any wisdom at all i'm just like anyone else sir but i would say uh to everyone keep calm enjoy yourself uh get together your friends and family uh try to uh keep safe of course but uh don't uh uh deny your enjoyment of diwali okay well that's that's useful advice uh thank you so much mr movies uh to you and yours a very happy diwali as well please stay safe thank you very much pleasure was ours and viewers thanks for tuning in to this edition of navigating to uncertainty you
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