저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상 한 줄 결론: 테슬라를 단기 주가보다 탈탄소·에너지 사업 전환 관점의 장기 투자 대상으로 보는 시각을 소개하며, 리서치 기관(ARK) 및 외부 인터뷰를 리액션하는 영상. - 배경: 테슬라가 실적 발표 후 주가가 크게 오른 상황에서, 투자 논거를 분석하는 리액션 영상. - 진행자 주장: 개인투자자도 기관 수준의 정보에 접근할 수 있게 되어 분석 품질이 기관과 대등하거나 더 나을 수 있다. - 강세 측 논거: 장기적인 전기화 트렌드가 핵심이며, 자동차 판매 이후 에너지(배터리·소프트웨어 기반 분산형 전력) 사업으로 확장될 것. - 약세 측 논거: 판매량 계산 및 회계상 크레딧 매출 등 실적 질에 대한 의문, 세금 크레딧의 지속 가능성 문제 제기. - 그렉(ARK 측 인용 인물 추정 인터뷰) 약세 주장: 오래전부터 공매도 추천을 해왔으나 실제로는 주가가 상승하며 손실 발생. - 머스크 인터뷰 인용: 연간 생산·인도량이 과거 총량 수준으로 늘어났고, 생산 목표 달성이 약 6개월 지연되었으나 이는 언론에서 과도하게 부각됨. 지수적 성장 구간에서는 짧은 시점 차이도 큰 퍼센트 차이를 만든다고 설명. 2021년 150만 대 목표 언급. - 에너지 사업: 분기 실적 보고서(4~5페이지)에 에너지 사업이 언급되었고 수익성이 있다고 발표됨. 소프트웨어로 개인이 분산형 유틸리티가 될 수 있다는 주장. - 진행자 결론: 테슬라를 자동차 회사로 보던 과거 4년간 큰 수익을 냈으나, 이제는 탈탄소·규제 완화 에너지·개인 마이크로 유틸리티 관점에서 장기 투자 논거로 본다. - ARK 밸류에이션: 기본·상단·하단 사례 제시, 하단 약 1,500(달러 추정) 언급. 현재 주가 대비 상당한 상승 여력 가능성 시사. - 종목별 방향 발언: 테슬라에 대해 장기 강세 관점(중립 아님), 단기 예측은 명시되지 않음. - 기타: 영상은 추가 리액션 콘텐츠 제작을 예고하며 마무리됨.
다듬은 글
hey everyone so i decided to do something new where i'm looking at and doing a reaction video to some recent interviews on cnbc so with tesla we can see that chalmers recently came out and provided an investment case for why the share price has gone up significantly which i found particularly interesting so uh let's take a look let me just ask you about tesla uh because they had their earnings last night uh they beat um you know the the bears would say they beat because they sold these tax credits and how how long are these these credits uh uh going to be you know a sustainable business model what do you say you bought you you bought into tesla bought into the debt a long time ago i think this is a really important example of a much bigger trend that's happening in the stock market which is that retail investors now have access to so much information that it's almost on parity with people that work in traditional investment organizations and what we've seen as that's happened is that the quality of that analysis and the ability to see around the corner is as good and in many cases better than traditional investment firms and the way they view the problem so i find it's quite interesting you know obviously charmat's now come out and said that retail investors um can have the same insight that some of these institutional investors can have and you know it's clearly true you know we see here a recent article saying that you know tesla they're ripping into what investors are considering you know the truth of this business and you know if you watch interviews and podcasts by arc for example there's real insight into what tesla is capable of the institutional investors aren't really looking at uh and a clear example is this interview ceo and founder of glj research so we want to hear your your entire bear case uh gordon and and how many years have you watched as this has uh just sort of confounded people with with your view and have you have you been recommending a short uh the entire time yes so we we have been recommending a short the entire time and you know quite frankly it really kind of took off late last year so so i'll put the link down below for that video but it's quite hilarious kind of understanding his insights and you know obviously how that's compared to the price chart and uh you know everyone that's investing at the moment so let's look at the next point so from day one you have had this massive tension between the bulls and the bears on this company and the bulls basically saw a long-term trend around electrification and the bears tried to play with balance sheet mathematics of course if i said you can sell ninety thousand cars but then if you negative sell a hundred thousand you've not sold ten thousand and you would say what does any of this mean you can use any convoluted logic to try to be short this stock and what you would have done is just lost an enormous amount of money this is quite funny he uh goes in and you know talks about a lot of people losing a lot of money but you know i guess the interesting thing that we can see from here is that he's really looking at what happens happening on a quarter to quarter basis and you know this is not something you can really look um you know from a short-term perspective this is a company that is you know will be a long-term success but you know when that will happen is unknown and you know i think the insights to that is also shown out uh in this interview with mask on arc yes exactly so like last year we basically doubled our global fleet because cumulatively we made and delivered more oh it's about about as many cars as we had made in our entire history right exactly you guys know but i'm just saying put the audience out there most people thought it was impossible yes and if you do a linear extrapolation it certainly would be but when making estimates against an exponential small changes in the the calendar breakpoint um have enormous percentage differences the time difference is small but the percentage difference is enormous i'm just i'm saying things that you guys know but it's this is for the broader audience out there yes no we want this yes we want people to understand this right like getting to 5 cars peak production per week was offset by approximately six months from my initial estimate last year so i thought we'd be there end of 2017.
it took us six months longer in the grand scheme i think six months late uh for a massive new program is not much but this was characterizing the press in terms of the percentage of units and instead of a calendar shift and so it was perceived as a massive shortfall when in fact it was merely a six-month delay and when i give these say my guesses for the future if you move six months or 12 months these numbers are you can be 50 to 100 different so but if you say like what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for tesla so interesting thing here is that he mentions the differences between calendar breakpoints and exponential growth and it's also you know insightful and it also explains a bit of what charmat is kind of coming out with and the explanation of you know how an analyst actually looks at this from a quarter to quarter as opposed to looking at it from a long-term perspective of it will be achieved but the timing isn't necessarily something that's an exact science and so what we're going to see now is that the stock is going to become part of the s p 500 it is the leading edge when it comes to electrification and decarbonization and here's the thing andrew what the bulls will get right and what the bears will ignore from here is that this is no longer about cars that that's the first wave of growth and i think people are pricing in an evisceration of traditional autos and an enormous shift to evs of which tesla will get the disproportionate share so now what is the bet if you ask me as an investor who loves that company it was in page four or five of their quarterly earnings release where they talk about the energy business so again another good point that he puts in here is that you know he already understands what's priced in cars new models etc that's in there but what he's pointing at now is that this business is uh transitioning from a traditional you know electric automaker into what is now becoming a large energy business and you know see from these quarterly reports he's mentioned we can see that that's been announced and he obviously has to be considered going forward and they said a couple of interesting things the first is that it was profitable and the second is that they're also producing software now that allows effectively anybody to become a distributed utility now think about for a second you are talking about one of the most predictable reasonable businesses that have raised hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars in debt and what tesla is going to do with their battery packs and their software is all of a sudden allow each of us to be in the energy business as well again people will get angry they will not understand they will try to push back and they will be wrong and what's going to happen is that this stock is now going to represent the totality around decarbonization and sustainability so it was really great to own this thing around cars for the first four years i did it i made a lot of money but now i underwrite this company as a bet towards decarbonization towards deregulated energy and towards the ability for all of us to become our little micro utilities another little savage point he puts out at making a lot of money which is again obviously quite funny but you know he points out into what tesla is going forward it is a energy business with obviously quite a long runaway for growth still and you know that's obviously now being priced in today but the question is you know will that continue to go further we see that you know arc has provided a base case valuation a high case and the low case and the low case is around that 1 500 so you know this got quite a long way to go anyway let me know if you enjoyed this video and let me know if you would like any other additional content or reactions to other interviews you know i thought this was interesting and we look forward to doing more of it in the future you
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