저자: RiyadoSofian · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 수익성·현금흐름이 경쟁사보다 우수하며 마진 하락은 가격인하에 따른 물량 확대 전략의 결과로 본다. 2023년 매출 약 1,020억 달러 전망, 마스터플랜3 등 장기 성장성 강조. DCF 적정가 주당 204달러, 안전마진 가격 143달러 제시하며 143달러 근처에서 매수 의사 표명. 다만 경쟁 심화·가격인하·로보택시에 따른 자기잠식 리스크도 언급.
다듬은 글
this is part two of my Tesla stock analysis and if you're interested in watching part one where I talk more about Tesla its growth and its competitive advantages you can find the link to part one in the description below with that said let's get to part two of the analysis turning to profitability perhaps one of the biggest competitive advantages that Tesla has over competitors is its level of profitability so in 2022 The company generated 20.9 billion dollars in gross profit at a 26 margin and in q1 1.6 million gross profit at a 19 gross margin so margins have been going down over the last few quarters and this is due to lower every selling prices High inflation production suspension in Shanghai as well as inefficiencies in gigafactory Berlin and Texas but if we zoom out Tesla's gross margin is still trending upwards and that shows economies of scale and increased earnings potential for the company despite the reason and downtrend Tesla has Superior gross margin profiles than all of the mass car producers here you can see the top 8 car producers by market cap and it shows that Tesla has the best gross margins in the business the higher gross margins enables Tesla to cut prices which could significantly increase market share in terms of the number of vehicles sold so Revenue per car or every selling price was forty seven thousand dollars in q1 the cost per car was thirty seven thousand dollars which makes a 21 gross profit margin per car so average selling prices has been trending downwards as the company cut prices to make EVS more affordable which is pretty much its main goal but notice that cost of Revenue per car delivered is also trending nowward so in other words Tesla is maintaining strong margins even with the lower prices and during the q1 earnings call Elon talked more about why the company is dropping prices of its cars so the company reduced prices considerably in q1 the company is taking the view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger Fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin and Elon thinks that it's better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin and subsequently Harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy in other words Tesla is sacrificing margins today so it can grow its Fleet and grow market share so in the future you can collect high margin Revenue through FSD moving on we can see how gross margins look like for each of its operating segments so Automotive margins as you can see here has been trending downwards because of the price Cuts but it is still above 20 which is within Management's Target gross margin for the energy and storage business was 11 in q1 which is an improvement from negative 12 less year as the business unit scales further so that's really good to see services and other gross margin was seven percent in q1 gross margin in this segment has been improving as the segment achieves economies of scale through a larger Tesla Fleet operating profit in 2022 was 13.7 billion dollars which is a 17 operating margin in q1 it was 2.7 billion dollars in operating profit at an 11 operating margin so similar to what we've seen with gross margins operating margins have been trending downwards due to lower asps high inflation higher cost of production ramp of 4680 battery cells and lower credit Revenue Tesla is pretty aggressive with its expansion plan and that's why margins are under pressure and nevertheless operating margins should improve in the long term as Tesla gains operating leverage again Tesla has Superior operating margins compared to competitors with 16.81 operating margin in 2022 which is way higher than its competitors right here and finally net income net income was 12.6 billion dollars in 2022 which is 15 net margin compared to competitors Tesla has very little debt which means lower interest expenses and ultimately High earnings for investors so again here you can see that Tesla has the highest net income margin among competitors so fundamentally Tesla has Superior profitability and that enables the company to cut prices as well as reinvest profits into growth as the company scales further we should see profitability continue to improve as the company achieves operating leverage and that is the financial competitive advantage that Tesla has over competitors turning to the balance sheet Tesla has cash and short-term Investments of 22.4 billion dollars and total debt of about 5.6 billion dollars as of q1 which makes its net cash position to be about 16.8 billion dollars so for comparison Toyota Motors and Ford have a net debt position of more than 100 billion dollars each which limits their potential to grow thus also has a current ratio of 1.6 times which is relatively liquid and slightly higher than the Auto industry unlike most pure EV companies Tesla is already cash flow positive so in this chart you can see that in 2022 Tesla has a free cash flow of 7.6 billion dollars whereas rivian and Lucid they both have negative 3.3 billion and negative 6.4 billion in free cash flow so when people say that smaller EV competitors like Lucid or Riven are going to take down Tesla they clearly don't understand the fact that some of these smaller players are facing bankruptcy risks on the other hand Tesla is reinvesting back its profits for expansion to pay down that or to buy back shares as a matter of fact Tesla has been paying down its debt over the last few years dropping down from about 15 billion dollars in 2020 to just 5.6 billion dollars in the latest quarter so as you can see here Tesla generated 7.6 million dollars in free cash flow at a nine percent free cash flow margin in q1 though The company generated 0.4 billion dollars in free cash flow at a two percent free cash flow margin so free cash flow margins did drop to two percent in q1 from 12 last year so investors should keep an eye out for cash flow in the coming quarters so all in all Tesla has one off if not the best balance sheet in the Auto industry it's also highly free cash flow positive which allows the company to reinvest its profits in terms of Outlook Tesla does not provide quarterly or annual revenue and earnings guidance however management does provide the following targets so for 2023 the company expects to remain a hit of the long-term fifty percent keger with around 1.8 million cars for the year so q1 every selling price was about forty seven thousand dollars per car and if we assume an asp of about 48 000 for 2023 1.8 million cars sold is going to translate to 86.4 billion dollars worth of Auto Revenue which is about a 21 increase year over year adding the fast growing energy generation and storage business and services and other segment Revenue could easily surpass a hundred billion dollars in 2023.
so if we head on to Seeking Alpha we can see that analysts expects 100.38 billion dollars in revenue for Tesla in 2023 which is a 23.2 percent year-over-year growth so here we can see Tesla's Revenue surprise and based on historical data Tesla's results has been quite in line with expectations with more beats than misses so we could expect Tesla to perform in line with expectations or maybe slightly higher than analyst estimates perhaps 102 billion dollars of Revenue in 2023 is a reasonable figure furthermore on March 1st this year Tesla unveil its muscle entry Lane about the steps necessary to make sustainable energy for all of Earth Tesla estimated that it will take 10 trillion dollars in Investments to realize this dream the question is could this be the plan that takes Tesla to a 10 trillion dollar market cap well I don't have the answer to that but I do know that Tesla is on a mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and buying Tesla stock means you're supporting Tesla to achieve this seemingly impossible feat and I think that is something to be excited about Tesla has disrupted the Auto industry and now the company is targeting other Legacy industries that could be electrified whatever it is Tesla is set to execute its master plan 3 which is to make sustainable energy for all of Earth that means to fully Electrify the World by completely eliminating fossil fuels this is achieved by repowering the existing grid with Renewables switching to electric vehicles switching to heat pumps electrifying high temperature heat delivery and hydro surgeon production and switching to sustainably fuel planes and boats so what I'm getting from this slide of the investor presentation is that we can expect new revenue streams from these three new categories at some point in the future the long-term outlook for Tesla looks bright as the company continues to accelerate the world's transition to a sustainable economy so turning to the valuation of the company Tesla's share price has gone through a roller coaster right over the last few years at the November 2021 Peak Tesla share price reached 400 a share which represents a 1.2 trillion dollar market cap but then Tesla plunged more than 75 from its high Insider selling Twitter distraction growth stock sell-off High inflation and interest rate hikes were some of the reasons why the stock collapsed and q1 earnings came out and the stock dropped Like a Rock but the question is is it still worth investing at the current price of a hundred and sixty dollars a share so looking at Tesla's valuation multiples the stock seem to be trading cheaply based on historical standards as you can see Tesla's EV to revenue multiple has gone through the roof in 2021 reaching a multiple of 25 times since then valuation multiples have gone down significantly to just 6.8 times so if we head on to Seeking Alpha again we can see Tesla's valuation compared to its peers so as you can see Tesla's EV to sales multiple is way higher than all of its peers excluding Ferrari Tesla's be ratio is also many multiples higher than its peers so comparing its valuation to its peers Tesla's valuation looks really overvalued in my opinion but again this is due to the fact that Tesla has higher Revenue growth rates as well as Superior profitability compared to peers and in terms of analyst price Target they have an average price target of 195 dollars per share which is a 20 upside with a low of 85 dollars per share with and a high of three hundred dollars per share and as a sanity check to analyst price targets as well as the current prices set by the markets I also did a DCF analysis of my own so here is my DCF model and here are my key assumptions so for Revenue growth I follow analyst estimates in the first three years and then gradually drop it to 11 for cost of Revenue as a percentage of Revenue I expected to increase in 2023 to 78 as compared to 74.4 percent in 2022 and this is primarily due to the company dropping prices as well as high inflation however I do expect cost of Revenue as a percentage of Revenue to go down as the years go by and as the company achieves economies of scale for operating expense I do expect the company to gain operating leverage dropping from 8.8 percent all the way down to seven percent by the end of 2032.
income tax will eventually grow to 20 of operating income appreciation and amortization dropping to 3.2 percent talk based compensation will stay stable at 1.5 percent Capital expenditures on the other hand is expected to be six to eight billion dollars in 2023 and seven to nine billion dollars in the following two years as Guided by Management in the beginning of this year and changes for networking Capital I'm going to stick it at about one percent for uh my projections So based on these assumptions I do get a gross profit margin of about 30 percent as the company achieves economies of scale and enjoys higher margins from software related products such as FSD however this will be offset by lower average selling price for operating margin I do expect the company to achieve operating margins of 23 by 2032.
with all that I arrive at a free cash flow margin of 18.1 percent by the end of 2032. for context this is higher than BMW's free cash flow margin of about 10 but this is lower than Apple's free cash flow margin of about 28 so assuming a Perpetual growth rate of 2.5 and a discount rate of 10 we arrive at that intrinsic value per share of 204 dollars per share this is slightly higher than the endless average price target of 195 dollars nonetheless the current price of 163 dollars per share shows that the company is undervalued however for growth stocks I usually use a wide margin of safety of at least 50 percent but given Tesla's durable competitive advantages and some of its growth potential I like to use a lower margin of safety of about 30 so if we use a preferred margin of safety of 30 I arrive at a margin of safety price of 143 dollars per share so while the company is trading below my intrinsic value per share of 204 dollars I do want a larger margin of safety and this is where way I will start buying the stock and if the stock goes down to new lows or below 100 I'll be buying it very aggressively with that said here's an interesting observation so master plan one was published in 2006 and 10 years later on the day that Tesla revealed muscle plan 2 on July 20 2016.
Tesla's market cap reached 33.8 million dollars and ever since master plan 2 was revealed on 20 July 2016. its market cap search more than three thousand percent and as of this video Tesla's market cap reached 515 billion dollars which is a 15-fold increase since 2016. so master plan 3 was revealed on March 1st this year and if Elon delivers once again we could see another thousand percent to two thousand percent increase in the stock and this will blow past the 10 trillion dollar Mark and this will be a long and difficult route for sure but I believe Tesla has what it takes to achieve this master even Elon thinks that Tesla could be worth more than Apple and Saudi aramco combined so turning to the risks of the company I think competition is by far the biggest bear argument against Tesla all this competition could take market share from Tesla as well as put pressure on margins I mean we're talking about Chinese Rivals like byd Neo and expang we're talking about smaller EV players like lucid rivien and pole star we're talking about Legacy automakers like Ford Mercedes and Volkswagen and even Tech giants like apple are also planning to enter the EV market so these are threats worth considering so another risk would be the price Cuts as you can see here are some of the recent headlines as Tesla cut prices of its cars globally and lists are pretty mixed as to whether these Cuts were a sign of weak demand or Tesla just being aggressive in taking market share whatever it is investors may not like the fact that Tesla's margin profile May worsen due to these price cuts and finally another risk is cannibalization so if the cause of hailing a Tesla Robo taxi is low enough and if it's really convenient for people to access these Robo taxis the need to purchase Tesla cars or the need to purchase another car is going to significantly reduce as such the development of Robo taxis will actually reduce Tesla vehicle deliveries so according to Art invest Global Auto sales May decline as Robo taxes hit the road as shown in this chart art invest expects unit volumes to be 29 million units lower than consensus expectation for 2027.
in other words this could hurt Tesla vehicle sales so to wrap up this video I think Tesla is one of the most controversial stock out there but I do think Tesla is a really great company to own in your portfolio Tesla is the top dog in the EV industry and it has a long growth Runway because of Mega Trends such as EVS solar renewable energy autonomous driving Robo taxis and so on Tesla also has technology brand scale and cost advantages modes and this will not only support its growth Ambitions but also protect it from competitive threats Tesla has a strong balance sheet cash flow and management and with master plan 3 in place we could see Tesla being a 10 trillion dollar company one day but after looking at q1 results there are things that we should worry about including worsening margins as well as slowing Auto Revenue growth with that said Tesla stock is very close to my margin of safety price so I'll be keeping a close eye on the stock but what about you what do you think of Tesla stock and also if there's a company that you want me to cover in this Channel please let me know in the comment section below with that said thank you guys so much for watching this video If you find Value in this video please hit the like button and subscribe to my channel so you won't miss future videos thank you and I see you guys on the next video
Comments 0