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folks Tom Lee just came out today with a major prediction that you need to hear as soon as possible and he is screaming to buy one stock immediately if you want to be set for 2025 in today's video we are going to break down number one Tom ley's latest Market forecasts bold and specific predictions for a 2025 pump and also a midyear crash number two his latest top stock picks in Industries number three one specific pick that Lee thinks you need to buy before 2025 begins I'll put all the time stamps down below and as always if you're the one taking the risk you got to be the one doing the ultimate Frisk always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented okay so let's start with Market predictions we have a taale of two halves Tom Lee and team believes that we are going to hit S&P 7000 by mid 2025 and then by the second half of 2025 we are going to see a massive dip and then recovery back to 6600 right now we are just under 6,100 so percentage wise we would have to go up about 15% from current pricing to highs and then end the year about 8% up from current pricing so how did Lee and fun Strat come up with this analysis well for starter Lee has been saying since the election that we have two puts protecting us from downside number one the fed put as inflation eases and the FED focuses on supporting employment and number two the Trump put as the White House implements policies to boost confidence and earnings per share and Lee thinks that we are going to see a massive reallocation of investor capital from cash bonds to equity a massive massive reallocation of all that sideline Capital all that sideline dough into risk assets and right now he thinks that what we're seeing so far is just the beginning but why then is he expecting a correction in the back half of next year well he looked back the last couple of years and he noticed we had 20% plus gains we had 2023 with 24% gains in the S&P 500 and 2024 it's looking like somewhere around 26% and he looked back historically the last 100 plus years and there were five precedents where you had 20% plus gains back to back since 1871 and the communative 4-year return in those periods was 69% versus the 2021 to 2024 period which is 27% and we still got one year left which means what well historically based on the Precedence well there's a lot of upside left but but here's the thing four of five precedent saw stocks fall the third year only positive was 1996 and five out of the five presedent saw stocks do worse in the second half of year three so next year 2025 if you're not following that's going to be year three so Mr Lee Tommy Lee King Lee thy holy Lee is looking at historical data and saying okay bigger picture we are set to run a lot but but second half looks bad five out of five times we had this setup historically we saw a big dump in the second half of year three so that's why they believe 2025 is going to be weak at the end of the year now if you actually pull up the charts and compare we are the blue line here and you could see us wait against all of the other runs with similar setups now you may notice a few things firstly you'll notice that every single one of these periods had big dumps or at least bad performance in the second half of their third year and the second thing you'll notice which is equally as important is that we are actually underperforming a lot when compared to the average and so even though the third year can often times be pretty bad well actually Lee thinks we have a lot to catch up again going back to the original statistic the average is 69% up we're only up 27% so if we just get say halfway that average well there's a lot higher we can go and even with a bad second half of 2025 we have a lot farther to Rally in broader markets according to Mr Tom Lee okay but speaking of the bad second half what are some potential causes that Lee identified well number one Doge being too effective and GDP falling on big government spending cuts and number two tariffs actually being implemented and GDP being impacted negatively by them now what's the thinking here well when it comes to Doge lower government spending can slow economic growth because it reduces the amount of money flowing into the economy through Pro public projects social programs and other government supported initiatives you have to remember folks that Biden added a ton a ton of what we could call busy work jobs to the government and while cutting those won't damage operations well these are people that may not be able to easily find real work in the private sector so all of these people are all of a sudden not going to have jobs they're not going to be spending and there's a lot of people and you extrapolate that out to many many sectors of people that actually have real jobs or they weren't just busy work but they're going to get cut well that's a lot of people in the government and then of course with tariffs implementing tariffs raises the cost of imported goods potentially leading to higher prices for consumers and manufacturers who rely on Global Supply chains and in fact amongst fun strat's clients Lee said that tariffs and deportations are in the most feared category a lot of people would argue well yeah but a lot of other countries have put massive tariffs against our country and that's true and it's super unfair but as we switch to a system where we start fighting back on that well you're definitely going to see some pain in some of these categories and that is something to consider now Tom Le all year has been super excited about small caps and there's a few big reasons for that Lee believes small caps are poised for a massive massive insane breakout year and the reasons that he cites are number one due to the valuation Gap small caps are trading at a forward PE of 13x for 2026 earnings compared to 17x for the S&P 500 you compare the price to book ratio versus the S&P 500 while small caps are dirt dirt dirt cheap if you are somebody who wants actual Superior earnings per share growth well small caps are faster growing than large at every quintile overall you're seeing 18.4% versus the S&P 500's 99.8% but if you look at the top quintile well the top companies in the S&P 500 are seeing 28.4% earnings per share growth whereas the top ones in the Russell 2000 small cap category are seeing 140% if you include the underperformers and the ones that aren't profitable you're looking at 104% which is still insane in terms of historical patterns after 10 years of underperformance which is what we've seen in the small cap sector well small caps have historically out performed large caps for the next three to five years and in terms of Tailwinds as animal spirits as Tom Lee likes to call them return and m&a activity pick up while small caps heavily represented in cyclical sectors are well positioned for growth remember markets love love love to rotate and they've been rotating out of small caps for years 2025 is going to be the year where they really rotate into them according to Lee now Lee argued in depth that the skepticism on small caps is really just born out of recency bias since we just had some of the worst small cap performance since 20 but he says that historically after periods of massive underperformance well we get big big forward returns so now is the opportunity now is the time to look at small caps let's talk the financial sector Lee is a big believer in a turnaround for the financial sector a sector that never really bounced back meaningfully after 08 thinks that lower funding costs and increased m&a activity should drive earnings growth quite a lot he also likes Industrials he's called out a lot of industrial plays historically these stocks perform best when PMI is below 47 as it is now so Industrials an area to watch Okay so want to talk about new picks I want to talk about this new page that he's put on here that talks about space plays and exploration so Lee thinks that the theme of space and exploration well that's going to be hot next year thanks to musk and SpaceX and the closeness with the Trump Administration and the top ones he's highlighted you're going to be very very familiar with I mean at least the first one the tier of the palen so palen tier is of course a leader in big data analytics offering software platforms that enable governments and corporations to make data driven decisions but in terms of space connections I mean pal here has partnered with organizations like space force and NASA helping them to analyze vast data sets related to satellite imaging exploration Logistics and space defense in terms of applications I mean in 2025 space defense will become a critical Focus as Nations prioritize security around satellite infrastructure Trump in the past has prioritized that with his space force agency and paler software is likely to play a key role in managing and interpreting these data streams with the growing commercialization of space companies will need Advanced analytics for Logistics orbital data management and defense palente reputation as a data first company positions it perfectly to benefit from the shift number two rocket lab this is a key space play as well rocket lab is a leader in small satellite launches offering cost-effective solutions for defense and Commercial clients their upcoming Neutron rocket could expand their Market into medium payloads positioning them as a serious competitor to SpaceX number three Joby go OB job's electric propulsion Tech and Partnerships with NASA suggests future applications in low orbit Logistics and perhaps even space tourism space mobile ASF why it's a space play while as is building a satellite to smartphone Network that could disrupt Global Communications and if successful could redefine mobile connectivity especially in remote areas number five Aero vernment avav why it's a space play well known for unmanned aircraft AO vernment Tech is already used in Mars Exploration with lunar and Martian missions ramping up into 2025 while AV Val's robotics expertise could be indispensable now in terms of Granny shots which are kind of his top plays and fun strats top plays while the SMI D granny shots represent the best of the best small cap and midcap constituents from Tom Lee and fun strats thematic portfolios and hyms which is highlighted here is the latest edition so hims folks is a major player in weight loss drugs and other prescription drugs delivery and we've been highlighting that for a while on this channel as well it's had a very very nice momentum s the last month especially but fun Strat believes that Millennials are going to be increasingly fat increasingly obese and so weight loss drugs are a good idea as a millennial myself that likes to eat a bunch of junk food I think I'm going to have to start cutting back so I don't become a fun Strat statistic but nonetheless hims excellent excellent play to buy on dips paler was another one that was highlighted in multiple use case scenarios one with government efficiency several with the AI theme and had an indication we mentioned earlier in the space play Spot and exploration spot and then you have mstr at the top which is a number one play for Bitcoin exposure micro strategy is the ultimate institutional proxy for Bitcoin and Tom Lee is a big fan of that with Lee projecting Bitcoin to hit 250,000 in 20 25 quite frankly whether you like it or not micro strategy Remains the goto stock for funds and institutions wanting exposure without dealing directly with crypto wallets okay then that leads us to the main entree of today's lovely video and that is what is Tom Le's favorite pick right now well that in my interpretation after watching his presentation and hearing him on CNBC and going through all the appearances well that is iwm the entire Russell 200000 Index this one is by far his most frequently mentioned ticker why well I don't want to beat a dead dog but small caps when you look at price to bookings Ford PE earnings growth the rotation cycle Animal Spirits merger and acquisition activity well they are simply set to outperform and iwm is a way of buying the entire small cap race instead of just betting on one horse Tom Lee believes iwm is the ultimate asymmetric play for 2025 it's undervalued it's set for faster growth it's backed by historical precedent and its positioned to benefit from a reallocation of investor Capital easing Financial conditions and pro business policies coming from the coming Trump Administration now are you going to get rich buying Russell 2000 iwm shares probably not even if it goes up 10 20 30% I mean you still have to start with a lot of capital to make a big difference but with options oof can you leverage if you pull up the mumu app right now you can snap up 260 strike calls expiring February 21st 2025 for $225 $2.25 times 100 for the contract minimum and you have you have $225 BS in cost for each contract that gives you control of 100 shares if iwm goes up to $280 for example your contract you bought for $225 is then worth about $2,000 in intrinsic value you can then elect to sell that to the options Market or execute it or continue to hold it but your $225 position just went to 2,000 versus if you just bought straight up shares well your $225 position wouldn't even buy you one share now of course super simplified explanation and options are risky if you're wrong but that's the leveraging power of options and you can mess with expiration date or strike price or whatever you want based on your outlook and if you are a member with us in zip Trader options we have alerted a couple different iwm calls and they're already doing pretty well but we believe they're going to do very well heading into January and February so you're not going to want to miss those but again if you think that the 260 strike price we chose here is too high I would disagree with you but if you think it's too high you could easily go down to 250 or 240 in strike price you can even go deep into the money if you want so anyways bigger picture the point here is that the leveraging power with options is very very useful and we have alerted to our options members on palente here mstr HS Mora and other specific Le picks that we like all of which I do believe are going to do very very well in the weeks and months so that's why we're working so hard to make sure we bring you the options call alerts that we think will do very very well into the coming year but if you want all of our options alerts and our full options program the link to our membership is down below if you want to sign up for Mumu and trade stocks and options on there they have a nice deal for our viewers down below as well sign up and get up to 15 free shares with the link down below those are two powerful resources that we have for you down below but anyways that caps off today's video have a great rest of your day and we'll see you next time until next time stay frisky but always manage your risky
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