저자: TomLee · 외국인
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잭슨홀 파월 연설 이후 연준 금리인하가 임박했다고 보며, 금리인하 시 머니마켓펀드 자금이 소형주(Russell 2000/IWM)로 유입될 것이라는 논리. 실질금리는 작년 대비 3배 높고 인플레이션은 둔화 중이며, 8월이 시장 저점이 되는 경우가 많아 연말까지 상승 전망. 금리인하 수혜로 비트코인·소형주·CRE·M&A·경기민감주를, 피해로 에너지·헬스케어를 꼽음. 슈퍼그래니 종목(팔란티어 등 소형주) 추가 언급.
다듬은 글
folks Tom Lee just came out and said that stocks are going to go absolutely crazy the Jackson Hole Powell speech today changed everything and now Tom Lee is saying that that means that one sector is going to be impacted the most positively and if you can position yourself correctly now well you might be set to make oodles and even poodles of money Tom ley's firm fun Strat also just added some big small cap stock picks their so-called super grannies which they believe are set to explode massively and one of the stocks that we often talk about here on the channel was also just included on the list I'm not going to leave you hanging it's paler stock o in today's video we're going to go step by step through everything that you need to know that Tom Lee and his firm fund Strat just said what happened at the Wyoming Jackson hle Summit and how this is going to impact you and your money and some big moves that you may want to make Let's Get Right to Work time stamps down below and as always if you're the one taking the risk you got to be the one doing the ultimate Frisk lots of people they get real risky without doing their frisky okay let's start so Federal res ve chairman Jerome Powell came out this morning at the Jackson Hole Retreat and said now is the time the time has come for policy to adjust indicating that cuts are coming soon little cuty McGee to those rates he declined to provide exact timing or to the extent that this is going to happen however if you look out to the FED fund Futures dating out to the end of the year well they now think that we're going to go from that current range to at highest at worst 450 to 475 and most likely at 425 to 450 and second most likely 400 to 425 and a growing percentage suggests that we'll even get back into the threes however that's still just a 6% chance but most likely outcome points to us being at the low to Middle fours by the end of the year low to Middle fours which is a solid cut of about 100 basis points Tom Le's fun Strat tweeted this in reaction quote real rates are 3x higher than at 2023 Jackson Hole one of three reasons we expect markets to ultimately view fed chare Pal's comment dovish equally risk on post speech this do one out of three reasons the first being the real rates but the other two reasons are presumably number one poell said that the cooling in the labor market conditions are now unmistakable so number one labor conditions and number two Powell said that he believes that they are on path to their inflation Target this means that Powell is now switching from a focus on inflation to a focus on labor markets a reverse of what we saw last year and the year before that now let's back up for a second and talk about Tom Le's thesis the overall thesis so Tom ley's thesis heading into the end of the year is that once the FED starts cutting unprecedented money on the sidelines will funnel into small caps and in fact his favorite iwm index for small caps is continuing to pump today the thesis goes all else being equal you can think of this thesis as such if rates are cut small caps will Skyrocket small caps rely on low borrowing costs to go parabolic the combination of Cheaper financing economic Tailwinds and increased investor appetite creates a very very powerful surge in small cap performance making them Stand Out huge the minute that rates start getting cut so Tomley is trying to Signal this now because he wants us to get ahead get ahead of this wave but you look at the amount of money in Money Market funds it's at about $6.4 trillion presumably much of this will need to find a new home as rates drop where will it go while the main options are real estate and the stock market however real estate has for the most part stayed elevated for the last few years in fact it's still at some of the priciest levels in decades relative to income in most Metras and the overall stock market and mega caps are also at some of the priciest levels relative to earnings so thus follows Tom Le's opinion that a lot of this Capital will find a home in small caps which for the most part is a sector trading at some of its steepest discounts relative to everything else while at the same time having some of the best growth rates in the world but Tomley also warns against recency bias recency bias means you're going to look at a sector that's underperforming and say huh it's underperforming well that must mean that it's guaranteed to continue to underperform thus I should allocate into areas that are overperforming however recency bias is a big policy in the sense that just because something has performed well or performed bad doesn't mean it's going to continue to do so if the underlying fundamentals of an economy or a market change well what's going to perform is going to change as well if you recall 2020 and 2021 growth stocks small cap stocks the stocks that Tom Le loves those went parabolic however when rates started going up they went down now that we're in a situation where rates are going to go back down again well Tom Le is saying they're going to go back up again as well now I want you to take a look at this leaked macro research from fun Strat so in this Lee discusses with his CL clients that a doish Fed is positive for Bitcoin is positive for small caps positive for CR commercial real estate positive for mergers and Acquisitions and and positive for cyclicals but it's negative for energy and negative for healthcare he explains that right now real rates are way higher than they've been in the last 6 years and 3X higher than at the same point last year how does that math work exactly well in 2020 2021 2022 real rates were negative because not only was the FED funds rate at25 5% but inflation ranged from 91% to almost 5% which means that if you net everything out you're essentially getting paid to take out money because the value of the money that is getting loaned is getting eroded by inflation and is higher than the rate at which you are paying to borrow that money in the first place pretty beautiful process very incentivizing to take out money but now we have the reverse situation going on the real rate is 3x higher than it was just last year and now that inflation on the core PC at least is in the twos and the FED funds rate is super high well while the FED is signaling that the labor market is becoming the more important thing to focus on no longer the pricing now in terms of the broader market and how it's going to react to all this news Well fund strats technical strategist Mark Newton said this quote it looks right to stay bullish past Labor Day and expect any weakness into the Jackson Hole meeting to prove short lift he explained that if you look back at all the data dating back to 1928 well August has been the most likely month to Mark a market bottom and if you look at the market bottom we hit this month well he's saying yeah this is the bottom and we're going to head upwards towards the end of the year okay so they're saying hey fed's going to cut markets are going to continue rallying the small cap sector is going to Rally the most and inflation is going to continue trending down but what about specific ideas that they are pitching here what are specific stocks not just iwm the overall small cap index that fun Strat and Tom Lee believe are buys well fun Strat put this out and it shows their main list of super Granny's and sleeper Granny's as a reminder these granny shots are essentially thematic stock picks that fun Strat believes is going to outperform the S&P 500 and they're based on AI automation overall and Millennials and the emerging Trends with those three themes and if you look at this list They just added several really really key plays here and you're going to want to follow these very very closely the first of course we have to mention is paler they added paler for the first time a few days ago at a pricee of $32.32 this of course has long been one of our highest conviction stocks here on the channel and it is the leading data analytics platform I have a million videos on the channel breaking down this company and exactly why one should or rather could build a lot of conviction in it and so I don't want to talk too much about this but definitely one of the most exciting companies on this list here I'm glad Tom Lee believes in it as well they also added mli Muller Industries moer Industries is an American manufacturing company that specializes in piping Industrial Metals and climate Machinery this one in particular stands out a lot I think this is more of a hedge play this is the type of stock that is theoretically profitable in all econom IC Cycles you're talking piping industrial materials and climate policy stuff which goes up and down based on who's in office well all of this stuff is a interesting hedge in the coming environment that we're heading into this stock is interestingly enough very very heavy Commodities and energy which kind of contradicts Tom's prediction on a doish Fed meaning things would go down in those categories whether you're talking about Commodities or energy but at the same time again it's a pretty nice hedge if his predictions are wrong and I believe that is why fun Strat included that on the list but you also have e+ Inc which is a little bit on theme it's a cloud and data center security play you have app oven another interesting pick app oven enables developers of all sizes to Market monetize analyze and publish their apps through its mobile advertising marketing and analytics platforms called Max app Discovery and Spark Labs you also have band Corp Inc this is a financial holding company primarily engaged in offering private label Banking and Technology driven solutions to non-bank companies here you have blue bird Corp this is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America known for its commitment to safety durability and eco-friendly Solutions this one is another one that seems like it's a little bit off it doesn't really fit all of the Thematic ideas that fun Strat and Tom Le have proposed but I believe maybe this is because of the climate energy policy stuff it seems like if you're investing trying to trace Millennial demand while Millennials do seem to want more climate energy policies and more requirements there and more climate friendly products so if you're talking about buses school buses well that's one area where you are seeing a lot of investment in EV clean energy type of Technology the next one you got to look at is amcore technology this is a Global leader and certainly very very relevant in today's world but it's a global leader in semiconductor packaging and test Services catering to a broad range of Industries including Automotive Communications and consumer electronics the company is recognized for its expertise in advanced packaging Technologies enabling the development of smaller faster and more efficient semiconductor devices AMC cor's innovation in chip packaging is crucial to the evolution of electronics and Technology globally and these markets are set to go completely exponential over the coming years so so very very important that they're listing this you have blueprint medicines this is another interesting one it's a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing targeted therapies for patients with genomically defined cancers and rare diseases using its proprietary Precision medicine platform blueprint medicines identifies novel genetic drivers of disease to create personalized treatments for folks the company's focus on Precision oncology has positioned it as a key player in the fight against specific cancer types the next one is ultra clean Holdings which provides critical subsystems ultra high Purity cleansing and analytic services to the semiconductor and display Industries the company specializes in the design engineering and manufacturer of key components used in the production of high-tech devices Ultra Clean Solutions are integral to Performance and reliability of advanced manufacturing processes the next one vco is another one that's in the semiconductor space voco is a leading provider of innovative semiconductor processing equipment enabling the production of advanced microelectronics LEDs and Compound Semiconductor devices the company's Technologies are essential in the development of smaller fast fter and more efficient electronic components vos's Precision equipment and expertise support critical steps in the semiconductor manufacturing process okay so there you have it these are the latest ideas in the small cap space if you look at the iwm index that's their main index where you can find a list of about 2,000 Russell small caps that may be set to bounce quite a lot should Tom Lee's predictions come true okay but wait one second Charlie why exactly should we care about what Tom Lee has to say isn't he just a perable that says everything is bullish regardless of what's going on well for starters if you look past the headlines what CNBC reports or what anybody reports well you'll start seeing that tomy's predictions are a lot more nuanced then you might have assumed his insights are as he likes to say evidence-based which means that he's actually providing evidence alongside each of his opinions and predictions now you could say oh I'm looking at that evidence and I came to a different conclusion but at least he has evidence behind it it's not a gut feeling here is a specific example of this when he says that he believes that markets are going to Surge now that inflation expectations are normalizing well he's looking at historical data and using that and other factors as evidence he's not just coming out and saying it randomly he's looking at what happened in the past when this happened his insights are not just used by retail investors but more importantly his insights are used by institutional investors they go to him to figure out what they want to position in people like to knock him as a permeable but quite frankly again his opinions are nuanced and he highlights potential risks and potential rewards he's not a one-trick pony but he does long-term believe that in inovation human Ingenuity and overall economic Transformations and historical Trends suggest that things are going to get better and better and more profitable and more profitable and that we're going to grow so yes he is a perable but he's not one that doesn't acknowledge the risks and while he's not always going to be right it's very important that you at least note what he's saying anyways that caps off today's video let us know what your thought process is on Tom Le's predictions and some of the small caps that fun Strat has highlighted let us know if you agree with them or not anywayss have a good rest of your day folks and we'll see you in the next one
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