저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 인도 시장은 단기 급락 가능성은 있으나 미국발 대폭락 우려는 과하며, 세제 개편과 실적 확대로 상승 여지가 크다는 입장. 인도 시장 전망: 현재 약 10,500 수준에서 9,000~9,500까지 조정 가능성은 있다고 봄. 다만 미국발 하락이 인도에 영향을 줄 수 있으나 극단적 스파이크는 예상하지 않음. 금리·글로벌 유동성: 유럽(독일 10년물 1% 미만)과 일본(0.1~0.2%)은 여전히 저금리여서 여유가 많다고 평가. 미국 10년물 금리는 3~3.25%, 최대 3.5% 수준까지는 용인 가능하다고 봄. 미국 실적·세제: 법인세 35%→20% 인하로 실적 폭발이 향후 3~4분기 반영될 것이며 시장에 호재가 많이 남아 있다고 봄. 신흥국 투자: 골드만삭스가 신흥국이 선진국처럼 보인다고 한 보고서를 언급. 버핏류 투자자가 신흥국 비중을 줄여온 점을 짚으며, 인도는 세제 변동이 잦아 안정성이 부족하다고 지적. 가치 측면에서 선진시장은 여지가 작다고 봄. 버크셔 해서웨이·바이앤홀드: 버핏이 일부 종목을 매도하는 등 원칙을 조정했지만 장기 보유 철학 자체는 유지될 것이라 봄. 투자는 가설이며 실적으로 지속 검증해야 하므로 보유도 맥락적 전략이라고 설명. ETF vs 펀드: 훌륭한 매니저는 드물어 대부분은 인덱스 ETF가 합리적이라는 버핏 논지에 동의하는 취지. 헤지펀드 10년 내기에서 인덱스가 이긴 사례와 헤지펀드의 높은 수수료를 근거로 듦. 인도 뮤추얼펀드 비판은 다소 과하다는 평가.
다듬은 글
yes but crash I don't think so that is in India because we are not buying US markets and all so in India from 10500 going to 9000 e1 or 9500 it's quite possible you know but I don't see that kind of spike that kind of situation even the global I mean if there is a route in US markets and I think it is gonna have impact here also maybe we will have a bigger out then what happens in US but if you look at the say if the if the thing is linked to the yield Europe is still is struggling at 1% German 10 EUR is still below 1% Japan is still at point 1 point 2 so I think there's a lot of slack but people are scared at the past this kind of expansion 9 10 years expansion and we just got the tax cut from 35 to 20 percent the earnings are yet to come paper yet to be soaked into the enhanced earnings in next 3-4 quarters so I think the lot of good news still in the system there are earnings explosion in u.s.
the yield part is I mean I hope doesn't go beyond three three point two five three and a half because there's enough slack in Europe and Japan I'm also expecting him to say something about emerging markets specifically like give a specific coming essentially because you know the noise is getting louder I'll take a quote from Goldman Sachs his recent report where they're calling emerging markets rich countries emerging markets are looking like rich countries and they are in profile you know drawing parallels between developed markets and emerging markets at a time like this you know you one would expect that if all the big investors in the world are looking at emerging markets Reed Ali has taken an exposure to emerging markets e/m ETFs particularly you would expect him to say something specifically about Ian's right he shouldn't bring in investments within this region yeah but he has not been a great fan of emerging markets I mean he has come here I think the change he has advised I mean his deputy AG Janice from he knows enough about India clearly is not an emerge by you know opportunities of investing in India so I I don't think and he see his one basic faith is the laws of capitalism and that is very well developed only in the developed countries that's why they are developed countries sure I had a drop of had you keep changing the laws some day you say capital gains tax is there some day didn't examine every single bureaucrat redefines his tax laws every three four five years so that's that's what doesn't suit the him at least he wants something where there is a stability of every aspect of it but if you're looking at value clearly developed markets is very little scope I you're up maybe but he's bought into two Israeli companies one is card which is a full acquisition and not ever minority purchase why can't you look at India why can you look at I mean shine also I'm sure they must be looking to invest in India but where is the sizable opportunities sitting on hundred thirty five look at his size 135 billion by the year and it will be one sixty one seventy billion dollars so the minimum size you must suggest is not hundred billion dollars you must suggest a few billion dollars to invest in a high quality company at reasonable price so he's not gonna buy a high quality company at any price for example now table is you know in his bet on generic pharma and India's got so many opportunities within generic Pharma even would what biocon is doing it's turning a page right in terms of exploring the biosimilars market I think it's great opportunity in Indian farmer so he can he can buy you know after holding all the airline companies for so long such a long period he can buy all five of them so I won't be surprised if he buys all the companies in India itself so he should keep his expertise where his expertise is pretty much embedded but what about the fact that he's challenging his own old philosophies right buy-and-hold classic philosophy he's lived by it and now he's kind of saying okay maybe that's not the most prudent strategy in this market environment in fact I read and open an editorial about this person who show sold out Berkshire Hathaway shares because he says buying whole in today's market environment is dead yeah so I don't think phenomenally he's going to change the buy-and-hold per se but buy-and-hold forever that he is revisiting some stocks I mean he's saying that the stock which are not kind of a strategy this thing he's not only a hundred percent if he's only a hundred percent it's almost forever but if he has a monetary stakes clearly it is open to sell and we are seeing more often that he's willing to sell and I think he has made some changes in last year that the policy books you know the the guidelines of holding there he has made changes that don't consider that if you bought something we are not willing to sell so to that extent yes he has given in but I don't think that means a lot of change I mean maybe not forever but 10 20 30 years definitely will do it Ashish ETS versus mutual funds you know that my two bits on the whole mind whole thing how I understand it is that when somebody says buy and hold because you know lot of your viewers are our investors or like just for them to clarify clarify that every investment we make is a hypothesis right and companies declare their sales numbers every month and the results every quarter and you know so every hypothesis you make with actual market data is getting retested pretty frequently so buy-and-hold actually doesn't mean that you are buying and forgetting there's a lot of work which goes into buying hold and you re evaluating your decision I can stretch it to other extend and so that we are evaluating our decision every month and every quarter but if it is moving along the path which we originally hypothesized then what is the reason to sell actually so buying hold is also contextual and there is not more detail which goes into actually the buy and hold thought process yeah I mean on your point on ETF side I mean my takeaway last year because there was a lot of debate because he mentioned that you know you should look at passive I still feel that what he was saying he said that if it was my wife you know I would tell her to put into passives I think what he's trying to say is that very difficult to find a great manager one is it's not everybody's cup of tea to become an investor themselves and second is that great managers are few and far between so if you are not a Warren Buffett and he said that Warren Buffett is blessed because he has Charlie Manuel who kind of influenced him so if you can't find a partner like Charlie Munger and if you can't be Warren Buffett then you're better off putting it in so what are you saying is that you know look if you have a process and a philosophy discipline and patience then you're fine but if you can't find such a manager then you go to ETL which I don't think anybody disputes I mean we all agree that you need a great manager to manage but he's talking about that 10-year bet where he won he's like 10 years and a husband index fund winning against the hedge fund because edge people they die no no no what is that say they take a lot of fee yeah so the on downside the rose to 20 don't punish themselves but not offside they take 220 yeah so you know so it has not worked well so he put that bet it was more of a kind of conviction than anything right him last year sir invest in an Indian mutual fund and he said no ways I'm not doing that anything us I'm not doing that wait why did you say that why are you sitting on care why why doesn't he buy 80 of himself till he buys a yeah and you should ask if you buy just meet him you asking I studied that whole thing you know when the ten years got over and everything I studied all of that about it it had huge number of hedge funds which are fund of funds so just think of it you're buying a battery of funds yeah those funds are funds of funds yeah and the underlying funds are again owning stocks and futures and hedges and all those kinds of things so I'm sorry but I don't know how was it actually supposed to outperform because even in India if you buy some 20 different mutual funds which is only 50 different stocks I mean it's cliched but you don't you never beat the market by buying the market no so you know just the example that you gave about 2017 where index funds you know at an index level at the headline index level did outperform individual but okay make that point
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