저자: RayDalio/진행:EvanCarmichael · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 성공 원칙 10가지를 소개하는 영상으로, 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 포함되어 있지 않음. 핵심 주장: 성공은 자신의 한계를 알고 신뢰도 가중 의사결정(believability-weighted decision making)을 하는 데서 나온다. 원칙별 요지: 1) 신뢰도 가중 의사결정 2) 실수에서 배우기(1982년 멕시코 디폴트 예측 실패 경험) 3) 오케스트레이터 역할, 자아와 맹점 극복 4) 분산투자로 수익률 유지하며 위험 축소(카지노 비유) 5) 의견에 너무 집착하지 않기, 똑똑한 반대론자와 대화 6) 명상 7) 롱샷(대안적 베팅) 8) 알고리즘화된 원칙 활용 9) 겸손 10) 목표 명확화. 전망 및 조건: 개별 자산·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 시장은 컨센서스가 가격에 반영되어 있어 그 대비 상대적으로 판단해야 한다는 일반론만 언급. 출연자 전망: 특정 시장 전망 없음(2020년 영상, 일반 원칙 중심).
다듬은 글
you can't have everything in the world but you could have almost anything you want but you can't have everything you want if you want your life to be successful you will not let yourself do certain things because you're just no good at them I can reduce my risk without reducing my return by knowing how to diversify to motivation high for my top 10 I learn from the wise wom and all I like like n n for my top 10 top 10 n n need motivation watch a top 10 with believe Nation hey it's EV Carmichael and this channel was created to help you overcome the number one challenge that is holding you back a lack of belief in yourself you watch these videos because you know there's something more ins you to you have Michael Jordan level Talent at something so get ready to have humility know your goals and meditate with Ray doio and my take on his top 10 rules of success to give you the confidence motivation and belief that you need enjoy okay let's kick it off with rule number one make believability weighted decisions I should explain believability weighted decisionmaking to you if you if you're interested okay so ordinarily you there two ways of making decisions pretty much uh there's the B boss has control and so autocratic autocratic I'll call that autocratic takes in everything and then he makes a decision or there's Democratic pretty much one man one vote um but really the best decision making is believability weight of decision- making and if you think about it first conceptually you would say um if you're going to make a decision of what you you have medical condition and you're going to how are you going to get that you're going to think who are the best doctors consult the expert consult the experts but this one knows more and that one knows less and how do you do it and then you have this triangulation and then you make that that's kind of the idea of believability decision-making we have ways of assigning believability that we all agree are fair that we each assess each other and we get certain amount of believability points so now imagine that you had believability your believability on a subject matter maybe it's investing maybe it's accounting whatever the subject is that you have a certain amount of believability weighted points and you're together well those believability weighted points uh when you say okay what should I make as a decision now I'm responsible for something but I ask everybody else I and I take a believability weighted vote I can have a believability weighted vote when I have that believability weighted V vote I really do believe that it's going to be a better decision than I would individually make that's believability weighted decision make rule number two learn from your mistakes so 198 1979 8081 I calculated that American Banks had lent a lot more money to emerging countries than those countries were going to get pay back and I anticipated that there would be a debt crisis and with that an economic crisis so that was my thinking um and August 1982 Mexico defaulted on its debt and a number of countries follow and so because I said that um I got a lot of attention about that and I thought that was going to be producing uh a bare Market in stocks and I could not have been wrong more wrong August 1982 was the exact bottom of the stock market and I was wrong and as a result of that um let's take my eight employees or um I had to let them go I lost money for myself I lost money for uh and I had to borrow $4,000 for my dad it was the most painful one of the most painful experiences but it was one of the best experiences that ever happened to me in my life because it it changed my perspective about decision making it made um it made gave me the humility that I needed and fear of being wrong in my decisions while I was able to maintain my aggressiveness so it changed my whole approach to decision making rule number three be an orchestrator the two big things is how do you get uh your alignment of your your lower level U with your upper level U how do you get um past your ego and your blind spot and we know what the ego barrier is like I got to be right or whatever it is or I'm not good at this the blind spot barrier is the realization that people actually see things different they see different things like somebody will see the big picture somebody will see the detail they'll focus on different things almost like a color spectrum type of thing and if you realize that you will see a part of that spectrum and other people will see the other part of the spectrum and so that you really need to when you go above yourself you really need to orchestrate all those ways of seeing because you are not just one of those people that's got to do it yourself your way of being the the success is to go above it and be the orchestrator and know what you're good at and what you're not good at so it's almost like if you want your life to be successful you will not let yourself do certain things because you're just no good at them once you get that picture down then you can find the paths wherever the paths are you're open-minded because you now you've given up your ego barrier and your blind spot barrier rule number four know how to diversify knowing how to diversify well is more important than almost anything people don't understand this is that an evergreen principle you think yes that's an evergreen principle and the reason I'm saying that the way it is it's almost like a casino making its money okay okay the way that you do it is you you get an edge so now when you have to make a bet I've got a bet against the whole world the world has view on something is reflected in the price so when I think something is attractive or unattractive that means I have to bet against the whole world and whether that's right or not that's difficult I get it right you know more often than I get it wrong but I'm going to get it wrong sometimes and so when you can take a lot of different bets what you can do is like the casino you'll get your average that your bet would be but you'll reduce your risk of one of those tables not being the table that's paying off and so that margin that uh so I can reduce my risk without reducing my return by knowing how to diversify also if you want to have more confidence check out my 254 series it's free the link to join is in the description below you have to explain why you're the right person to lead and above all you have to know your numbers I've always been passionate some people thought you know it's it's more OCD than anything else the minute you begin to get external in your life worrying about what other people think about you right you've you've lost all control you and it and it never fills you up rule number five don't get too attached to your opinions this is the like the biggest message that I think that I would get a across that I'm trying to convey in principles and so on um is that so many people in their have opinions in their heads that might be wrong and they're too attached to them and if you know how to um operate with a certain amount of uncertainty and stress test your opinions in a different way you get away from your ego get away from all that um you can learn a lot about raising your probabilities of being right so uh what it made me want to do is find the smartest people I could find who disagreed with me and then I could have conversations with them rule number six meditate meditation is the biggest gift that I can give anyone and I would say more than anything it is whatever reason for Success I've had uh because it allows one back to the two 's I'll clarify what I mean is that in your mind there we think what do you want and the reality is when you look at the neuroscience and psychology ology that there are different parts of your brain that want different things and so in the simplest sense there is the logical part of the brain that you're conscious of it's called the conscious and you think you're being logical and you want to make those decisions and then there's the subliminal below the limbic system part of the brain which is the emotional and it's not as conscious to you but it has more of an influence on you than really The Logical one and so they're not aligned and so when you're experiencing that pain or let's say the ego right there were two main things you got an ego barrier and a blind spot barrier if you can get past your ego barrier and you get past your blind spot barrier you can accomplish anything because you'll also know that you don't have to do everything to you don't have to figure it out yourself you can take in from other people the different ways to approach things in the best possible way and so the realization that we all are really struggling with ourselves and to think which are which is in control meditation helps to deal with the alignment of those two things rule number seven take the long shot the average person who's listening too many people think that they can go into this very difficult Zero Sum game of betting again against the consensus and be right you know what I mean in other words investor says I'm going to go in the markets I'm going to make money betting against the consensus and be right right cuz the consensus is built into the price okay okay that's what's the so it's think of it as like going to a horse race and there's handicaps okay you're not going to pick the best horse and you're not going to pick the best company a terrible company can be a better investment than a uh a terrific company a terrible company could be a better investment just like the terrible horse can be a better in because the odds that are changing like you go into that and that becomes the long shot but because the long shot is going to pay off 25 to one right if he comes in that um you could just as likely bet on the the long shot as the leader and it's going to be equally likely that you're going to make money right otherwise You' otherwise the market would be doing the opposite well the market is like that right in other words if everybody believes that something's going to be terrific okay then everybody's betting on it and its price is high so it's not what's best necessarily it's what's best relative to what's in the price what's discounted rule number eight use algorithms you now use a lot of computer related algorithms to help you navigate the market you know algorithms or what we call them today equations is what we used to call them and so you would write that down and what I learned is by being clear then I could tell how that decision would have worked in the past in all different environments so it gave me a lot of perspective on making that decision I could test it through the Great Depression and so on and then I could find that I I use that same algorithm I could take data from and have the computer make decisions in parallel with me and so and this is what I recommend for everybody I recommend they write down their principles and then realize that almost any of those principles can then be converted into algorithms and so the computer was making decisions in parallel with me making decisions that part type of partnership uh between me and the computer and also expressing the algorithms was invaluable not only in the quality of the decisionmaking but also the quality of the relationships that I had with the people I worked with rule number nine have humility my son in 2014 gave me a book by Joseph Campbell called hero of thousand faces and basically he described that these things happen you know everybody crashes and then you're faced with uh that crash and you either have an epiphany or you don't now you either walk off the field and say hey I don't want to do this anymore and you give up on that going after your audacious goals or you gain really humility you you you know how do you feel that you're going to be wrong and so I think then that whole notion is um you know to come back with the uh finding the smartest people I could find who disagree with me um also I'm in the investment management business that you have to bet against the consensus otherwise you can't make money because it's in the price and you have to bet against the consensus and be right or as an entrepreneur I'm an entrepreneur I had to bet against the consensus and be right and so to gain that humility was the the thing so you either get off the field or you learn and Rule Number 10 the last one before a very special bonus clip is know your goals you have to know what you're going after um you can't have everything in the world but you could have almost anything you want but you can't have everything you want if you go after your goals and they're clear you have to know your goals now I have a special bonus skp from Ry on how to learn to deal with what you don't know that I think you're going to enjoy but before that it's time for the three-point Landing questions let's go from just watching a video to take an action here we go question number one what's the long shot that you need to take number two where do you need to have more humility and number three what's a recent mistake that you have learned from and if you made it this far in a video I want to celebrate you to give me a hash believe down in the comments as well I'm a dumb and any thing that I have I haven't done you're saying like you have to I'm a oh you're a dumb in other words that what I mean is that any success I've had in my life yeah has been more due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know than what you than do to anything I know if you want to see the top 10 I did on Bill Gates check out the video right right there next to me I think you'll enjoy it continue to believe and I'll see you there this is a great time to be doing Innovation because the tools of innovation are so much better you know I worked weekends I didn't believe in vacation and so I I really pushed people to work hard
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