저자: DanIves · 외국인
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애플의 대중시장 전략(Mac·iPhone 신규 고객 확보)과 AI 수요가 긍정적이며, 메모리 대응력으로 6월 분기 성장률 100~200bp 상승 여력 주장. 데이터센터 전력 부족이 AI 최대 리스크이며 천연가스·에너지가 AI 파생 수혜처라고 봄. 최근 소프트웨어 매도는 AI 공포에 따른 근거 없는 과잉으로 바닥을 본 것으로 평가하며 MSFT, CRM, NOW, 사이버보안(CRWD, PANW), 팔란티어 선호.
다듬은 글
We invite Dan Ives, Head of Global Technology Research at Wedbush Securities, to join the conversation. So, Dan, congratulations. Hmm, so many topics to discuss. We will move on to the White House meeting shortly. What is your reaction to the Apple products we've seen in recent days, and what impact will this have on their financial performance?
Look, this is very clever. I mean, they're going mass market, but it's necessary because they're now looking to attract more and more new buyers of both Macs and iPhones, and it's a smart strategy because AI is really coming to Apple. And now for them, if you look at memory and everything that's going on, they're doing a really good job of managing it.
And I think that could provide a 100-200 basis point boost to growth in the June quarter. Wow, and I know people are hoping to hear something from Jensen Huang regarding memory pricing. He is currently speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference. I heard something else he mentioned a few minutes ago. I just want to say this.
He said that Nvidia's $ 30 billion investment in OpenAI could be, quote, " the last opportunity to invest in such a significant company." Um , he's talking about this because they might go public by the end of the year. Um, but what do you think is the broader meaning of this statement? Yeah, look, he's partly playing poker, right?
I mean, there could obviously be other investments in the coming years. But I think the reality is that there is increasing pressure on OpenAI, Anthropic, and other companies because they won't be able to get those tens of billions of dollars of investment forever. Eventually, they will have to show profits.
This is also an arms race that is happening now. And I think you see that with Anthropic, software, and what's going on there. And Jensen understands this well . He knows he has a magic wand. And when he speaks, everyone listens. So it's very strategic in terms of what he's saying about OpenAI, a kind of warning shot.
The revolution won't be shown on TV, Dan, but the AI revolution will be largely powered by natural gas. I know you're not an energy expert, but we talked a lot about the war in Iran and energy prices. Are you concerned that the energy situation could one day seriously hinder the development of AI?
Listen, Brian, absolutely. I mean, you're an energy expert, and the reality is that the biggest concern right now is energy shortages. More data centers are currently being built than are already in operation. That's why there's a meeting at the White House today. You know, these companies will have to pay for everything themselves.
And look, natural gas will play a huge role. And large technology companies, which spend hundreds of billions, see energy as part of their expenses. And it will also have a big secondary and tertiary effect. I can argue that energy will become one of the biggest derivatives in the field of AI. Yes, but, Denis, I'm following your list of where to buy during this rotation, a pretty tight rotation.
One day software stocks go up, then Micron goes down seven, then goes up seven again. And I noticed that ServiceNow is one of the companies that you're pretty confident in, at least in the software space. What do you think is happening overall? So, first of all, I think it all comes down to the fear of AI, right?
And I believe we saw the bottom last week after the Anthropic incident. I think investors realized that fear turned out to be stronger than reality. The software market has bottomed out. I mean Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow— considering everything McDermott has done. Cybersecurity, look at the numbers CrowdStrike, Palo Alto.
And I think Palantir, both strategically and from a defense sector perspective, will benefit enormously. Listen, now is not the time to give up in the technology sector. This is a very volatile, turbulent period, but look at companies like Microsoft. You see them weathering the storm with solid assets, maintaining a defensive and at the same time offensive stance.
As I said, this software sell-off is the most baseless I've seen in my entire career on Wall Street. The most baseless of your entire career, yes. And, of course, there is potential here, given everything that is happening there. One last quick thought about this confrontation between the Pentagon and AI, is it all just a show-off?
Look, I think it just indicates that two worlds are colliding, like in the case of Anthropic, right? And I think OpenAI obviously stepped in, we saw a lot of soap operas on Friday nights. I would say that ultimately you're going to have to rely more on Palantir, more on the traditional software foundation.
LLMs are important, but essentially in the coming years they will operate on a "plug and play" basis. It's all about the data. But as for Anthropic, look, I think they touched on a very sensitive topic. This is going to be, you know, a very controversial issue within the broader technology sphere over the coming weeks and months.
So, what are people getting wrong? If markets are dispassionate. They sell software because they think something is happening, Dan. What are sellers doing wrong ? Yes, Brian, vendors are wrong to think that Anthropic will replace software developers. They believe the software is structurally broken due to LLM, Anthropic, OpenAI, and others.
And I think this is, as I said, a fictional story. They may not have proven it yet in terms of monetization, but Salesforce, ServiceNow, Microsoft, CyberArk, Check Point, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, and others have. They will play a huge role, but look, this is what we are going through. It will be an arms race, but Anthropic's idea that they will replace software is a made-up story that, in my opinion, will eventually be the bottom of the software market.
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