저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 제임스 로저스는 장기 인플레이션과 금리 상승을 우려하며 미국 장기국채는 숏(하락 베팅) 기회로 보고, 현금·미국채 비중을 높이고 금·은을 보유하는 등 방어적 입장이다. [금리·채권] 미국 30년 국채 금리는 최근 5.49~5.55% 수준으로, 2021년 약 1%에서 약 5배 상승했다. 금리가 오르면 채권 가격이 내리는데, 2020년 3월 이후 장기 국채 ETF는 약 50% 하락했다. 로저스는 인플레이션과 금리 상승이 가까운 시일 내 바뀌지 않을 것으로 보며, 금리가 조정받으면 채권 숏의 기회로 본다(본인 의견이라고 명시). [상업용 부동산] 시카고 Aon Center는 2015년 7억1200만 달러에 팔렸으나 현재 약 1억9500만 달러로 70% 이상 하락했다. 사무실 담보 증권의 연체율은 약 12%로 2008년 금융위기 정점보다 2%p 높다. 만기 도래 640억 달러 중 약 400억 달러가 연체·부실 상태이며, 시카고 도심 공실률은 27%, 덴버는 39%다. [인플레이션·연준] 로저스는 연준이 금리를 0.25%p 올린 것을 두고 대응이 부족하다고 보며, 정부들의 대규모 통화 발행이 인플레이션을 키운다고 주장한다. 긴축을 해도 고통을 견디지 못해 다시 완화할 것이라며 정치권의 규율 부족을 지적했다. 일본의 수익률곡선통제 실패를 언급하며 미국도 비슷한 길을 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 최종적으로 사람들이 국채에서 빠져나와 실물자산으로 이동하는 시점이 올 수 있다고 전망했다. [주식·AI] 미국 증시는 2008년 이후 역사상 가장 긴 상승장으로 과열 우려가 있다. 로저스는 현금과 미국채 비중이 높고 주식에는 신중하며, AI 투자 열풍이 거품이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 증시 조정 폭이나 시기는 특정하지 않았다. 전 세계 주요 시장이 신고점 부근이라는 점도 언급했다. [귀금속·암호화폐·에너지] 로저스는 금과 은을 보유하고 있으며 현재 안전자산으로 금·은 외에는 보이지 않는다고 말했다. 비트코인 등 암호화폐는 직접 투자하지 않는다고 했고, 기술로서는 의미가 크지만 잘 아는 사람만 투자하라고 했다. 에너지는 알려진 석유 매장량이 줄고 있어 장기적으로 고유가가 지속될 것으로 봤다. 이란 전쟁 이후 연료 가격 급등도 언급했다. [기타] BRICS의 금 기반 결제 통화 움직임에 대해서는 달러가 불완전하지만 대안이 없어 여전히 보유한다는 입장이다. 방어 섹터는 기회가 있을 것이나 구체적 종목은 제시하지 않았다. 자산 배분 조언으로는 잘 아는 것에만 투자하고 핫팁을 피하라고 권했다. 현대차가 미국 3분기 판매에서 포드를 앞설 것이라는 Cox Automotive 전망도 소개됐다(로저스 발언은 아님). [출연자 전망] 로저스는 장기적으로 인플레이션·금리 상승과 주식 조정 가능성을 경고하며 방어적 태도를 유지한다.
다듬은 글
This is the best of the radio program " Retirement Lifestyle Advocates". This is the radio program " Advocates for a Retirement Lifestyle." I'm your host, Dennis Tabbergen. I'm glad you decided to listen to or watch us today, depending on how you consume our content. I am very pleased to be joined by an investor who needs no introduction in the second part of today's program.
Mr. Jim Rogers joins me on the program today. I recently spoke with Jim at his office in Singapore and I get his thoughts on global markets, including stocks, bonds, and what he's doing with his money right now? This is information that I am sure will be very valuable to you, and all of it will be in the second part of today's program.
If you have n't already created a free account at retirementlifestyleadvocates.com and gained access to all of our free resources, I encourage you to do so. It's free. There you will find podcasts. You will also receive my weekly news digest as well as my weekly portfolio status newsletter. Once again, the name of the site: retirementlifestyleadvocates.com.
So, the yield on 30- year US Treasury bonds reached 5.55% last week, and ended the week at 5.49%. Can we say 5 and a half percent? It's interesting if you look at what the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond was in 2021 —about 1%, so we're seeing about a fivefold increase over the last five years.
Now, I'm sure you all know that when yields go up, bond prices go down, and if you look at what actually happened to the prices of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, you only have to look at an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. And if you go back to March 2020, when the stock market bottomed, that's when bond prices peaked, which is not surprising because during market corrections, at least in past market corrections, if we're talking about stock market corrections, investors sought safety in Treasuries.
We'll see if this remains the case in the future, but since March 2020, long-term US Treasury bonds have lost 50% of their value. Can you believe this? Long-term US Treasury bonds have fallen by 50% in just the last 5 years. This suggests that inflation is taking its toll on the bond market. This also suggests that investors are not as comfortable borrowing money from the US government for long periods at low interest rates.
They demand higher interest rates to compensate for what they perceive as increased risk. I don't see either of these trends, inflation or rising interest rates, changing anytime soon . I believe that if we see a pullback in yields , it would be a great opportunity to play bonds short. This is just my opinion.
Draw your own conclusions. And now, looking at other sectors of the economy, one that we've discussed before on RLA radio is commercial real estate. Chicago's Aon Center is just one example of what's happening in the commercial real estate market right now. This 83- story skyscraper was sold in 2015 for $712 million .
Shortly after its acquisition in 2015, the building was refinanced with a $536 million loan. Now, keep in mind, it's only been 11 years. Today, the building is valued at just $195 million after the recent loss of major tenants. This is a drop in value of more than 70% from the 2015 purchase price . Well, the mortgage expired in July, and the owner, not surprisingly, was unable to pay it off.
The owner asked the bank to give him 3 years to resolve the problems, and the bank replied: "Sorry, no ." Many office building loans were bundled into commercial paper, backed by mortgages, and sold to investors. These loans are increasingly becoming problematic. Office loans packaged and sold as securities currently have a delinquency rate of 12%.
This means that approximately one in eight properties in this area is delinquent or has arrears in payments. Bloomberg reports that $64 billion worth of office commercial mortgage-backed securities are due to mature this year and next . Of that $64 billion , just think about it, a whopping $40 billion is already in default, past due, or labeled as problematic.
That's 40 billion out of 64 billion. This is about 2/3 of these loans that are already problematic. The vacancy rate in downtown Chicago is currently at a staggering 27%. In Denver, it is 39%. For comparison: the current delinquency rate of 12% on office building loans is 2% higher than the peak during the real estate market crash during the financial crisis.
If you haven't already created a free account at retirementlifestyleadvocates.com, as I said at the beginning, I would encourage you to do so. There are more resources available there. Once again, I would like to remind you of the website retirementlifestyleadvocates.com. I'll be back after this break with my special guest today, Mr.
Jim Rogers. Don't switch. This is the best of Retirement Lifestyle Advocates Radio. With you is Dennis Tabbergen, host of the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio program. For a short time, I want to invite you to receive a copy of my book, The New Rules of Retirement. You can get your copy by visiting requestyourbook.com.
I repeat: the website—requestyourbook.com. I invite you to get it because the book was written about 10 years ago and very accurately predicted what we see today. This book is available for a limited time before the release of my new book, Resetting the Retirement Rules. This is an updated version of the book "The New Rules of Retirement." So get your copy of The New Rules of Retirement within the next few weeks, after which the offer will disappear.
All you need to do is visit requestyourbook.com. Let me know where to send the book and I will be happy to send you a free copy. This is requestyourbook.com. This is the best of the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio program. Welcome back to RLA Radio. I'm your host, Dennis Tabbergen, and I have the great pleasure of speaking today with author and legendary investor, Mr.
Jim Rogers. Anyone who has been in the investment environment for the past few decades knows Jim, so he needs no introduction. Jim, thank you for joining us today. I appreciate your time. I'm glad to be here, Dennis. But I want to say right away: I've made a lot of mistakes in my life, so be careful.
Good. Well, I appreciate your humility, and sometimes mistakes are the best experience, right? I'm always learning, I try to learn from them. Yes. Well, I've been following your work for a long time, so I appreciate your time. I like your perspective, Jim, on the Federal Reserve, as we're talking about the fact that the US just raised interest rates by a quarter of a point.
Isn't that like putting out a forest fire with a garden hose? Well, Dennis, I'll tell you this: I've been around a long time. The Federal Reserve usually doesn't know what it's doing. This has rarely happened in the past. I'm sure they don't know this even now. Remember, the people who work at the Federal Reserve are bureaucrats.
I mean, these are people who can't find real jobs, so they work for the government and the Fed. They know no more than we all think. We all know they have a lot of power, but I know they know no more than you and I. Of course, no more than me. So, Jim, you see the Fed raising interest rates by a quarter of a point in an attempt to contain inflation.
Second, we see bond markets around the world almost exploding, and we see interest rates on the U.S. Treasury bond, the 10- year, rising above 5%. How do you see the development of this trend and what do you attribute such a sudden jump in interest rates to? Well, maybe I'm the only one who knows that inflation will go up and that interest rates will also go up if inflation goes up.
I mean, many governments have been printing staggering amounts of money, Dennis, over the last few weeks or months, and that has always led to higher inflation. Higher inflation is approaching . Be ready. I am worried. So, Jim, politicians and lawmakers seem to be explaining these problems away from the real cause.
As you just pointed out , this is deficit spending. So, do you see any policy changes that would help bring inflation under control in the future? Or do you think we in the US are in for yield curve control, as Japan recently admitted, having suffered a complete failure? Well, Dennis, I mean, you and I and some people know the real reasons for all this, but Washington or any other government will not do what is needed.
Let's say the Federal Reserve said, " Okay, you're right. " And they tightened monetary policy, raised interest rates to very high levels, but after a few weeks or six months, the Federal Reserve would say, "Oh my God, this pain is too much." And they would immediately give up, loosen the policy, start printing huge amounts of money, and we would be back in the race.
This requires an enormous amount of discipline, which I fear most people in US political circles, and probably no other country, have. It takes enormous discipline and pain to stop inflation, especially after many months or years of printing money. So, Jim, is the ultimate goal here a highly inflationary or hyperinflationary reset, in your opinion?
That is, will we get to a point where people just say, “Wait a minute. "I don't think I want to keep my money in U.S. Treasuries anymore." And we will reach this tipping point. How will this happen? Well, it happens more or less like you said, but eventually people say, "I can't play this game anymore." And they invest their money somewhere else, whether it's in another country, or in commodities, or in real assets, or somewhere else.
They stop investing in Treasury bonds. They stop investing in the markets. Simple markets. And they start investing their money in hard assets to save themselves, to protect themselves. So, Jim, if you look at stocks, the stock market has been overvalued for a very long time by almost any measure. What is your forecast for the stock in the future?
Well, Dennis, that's a good question. The US stock market is growing for the longest period in American history. I mean, since 2008, everything has been great. We have never had such a long period of success in the history of the US stock market. And maybe things are different now. Maybe Washington has solved all our problems.
Maybe things are different now. I doubt it , but I'm worried. I'm worried. I have a lot of cash . Almost all of my money is in US Treasury bonds. Either in the US, or, well, a little bit in China, but the US and China, because it seems to me that this party is coming to an end. So when this party is over, and the stock market, I think, has been driven in large part by artificial intelligence and technology, especially recently.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like artificial intelligence is a technology that's here to stay, but it's definitely not profitable right now . For the big six, I think another $5 in capital spending is expected. Investors seem somewhat reluctant to provide them with money on favorable terms.
I mean , is this the catalyst that will bring this market down, and how far will it go down? If only I had always known this catalyst. I know this has been going on for decades, centuries. Everyone is crazy about new technology, whether it's railroads, electricity, or automobiles, whatever it is . We are all very worried.
Stocks are soaring very, very high. People make a lot of money, and then many lose staggering amounts, the party ends , and we start all over again . I mean, this isn't my first , this isn't my first party, Dennis. So you're looking at, obviously, if you're predominantly in U.S. Treasuries and cash, you expect that we're going to see some type of reset , or as you say, the party's over .
Are there any sectors in the stock market or countries that you think might be an exception to this rule? Well, Dennis, this is one of the few moments in world history when almost every market in the world is hitting new highs. Everyone has been doing well the last few days . This rarely happened. So , if there is a new place, I haven't found it yet.
Yes, I have some money in Uzbekistan, but don't count on Uzbekistan to save you. So, Jim, central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold. Is this a good place for someone concerned about their financial future or a secure retirement to consider asset allocation? Well, everyone has to make their own decisions, but, Dennis, I own the gold.
I own silver. Everyone should have some silver in their closet. And everyone else should keep some gold under their bed. Gold has been around for thousands of years; Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. You know, it was a long, long time ago. So silver and gold have always been a way of protecting people and have had great value for hundreds of years, and will likely continue to do so .
So, Jim, when you look at some of the moves toward gold and away from the dollar around the world, you know, historically speaking, whenever a currency reaches a point of distrust, some kind of connection to a tangible asset is reestablished , which has happened many times. And of course you know this better than I do.
Do you think we'll see this again? Will this be the gold standard 2.0 or 3.0 in the future, at least in some parts of the world? Well, I have no idea, but I know that what you said has happened many times. People look for a safe haven, whatever it is, and gold and silver have often been safe havens throughout history.
And I don't see anything else these days except gold and silver. I own both. And who knows if I'll be right? But I do own gold and silver at the moment. What does Jim Rogers think about cryptocurrency? Well, I mean, crypto is another great technology. It changes everything we know. I do not have any investments in cryptocurrency.
If you are smart and knowledgeable enough to know the right people and the right companies, maybe you can make an investment. Dennis, this isn't the first time a new technology has come along and changed the world. Cryptocurrency is already changing everything we know. If you understand this, act. But only if you really, really understand what you're doing.
So, Jim, since the war with Iran began in February, we've seen a spike in fuel prices . It seems AAA reported this week that diesel now averages over $6 a gallon. In California, gas stations are ordering new pumps because the old ones are designed for a maximum of $9.99 per gallon. What do you think about the prospects for the energy sector?
Well, Dennis, the world is running out of known oil reserves, whether we like it or not. I didn't say that oil was running out. I only said that the supplies we know of are running out. Therefore, energy prices will likely remain high for the rest of your lifetime, and maybe mine. Maybe we'll find a giant new deposit somewhere, but not yet.
Meanwhile, known reserves continue to decline. So, Jim, if you look at the course of the war, which, you know, didn't end as quickly as initially predicted, at least I'll use these terms. Are there any defensive sectors in the stock market that you see as attractive in the future? I'm sure there is.
Yes, I'm sure there is, Dennis. I just was n't interested in them. I've been lazy lately, so yes, I'm sure there are huge opportunities in defense around the world . I just don't know which ones right now . So Jim, to come back and talk a little bit about BRICS, you live in the East, in Singapore. The BRICS countries are moving towards creating a gold-backed trading currency .
What do you think this will lead to? In your opinion, will it become the world reserve currency in the future? You know, throughout history, humanity has always looked for alternatives, looked for competing currencies. Usually it all came down to gold and silver. Gold and silver are still attractive to me .
I own both . I know that we will always need competitors, and we will look for them. The US dollar is certainly an imperfect currency. After all, the United States is the largest debtor in world history. But people don't know what else to do, so they go to the US dollar. I own dollars not because I think it's a great currency, but because I know that's where everyone will run.
So Jim, the clock is ticking , but if you could give some thoughts or recommendations to someone who is about to retire and trying to figure out how to manage their savings, you mentioned caution earlier, so is there any more specific advice you could give them? Well, I think the most important advice I can give anyone is: stick with what you know.
Don't listen to other people. Don't listen to newspapers, television, or the internet. If you only invest in things you know a lot about, you will probably survive. If you start listening to hot tips, you will most likely be ruined. Please just stick with what you know best. Some will say: " That's boring." Don't worry.
Be boring. Be boring if you want to stay solvent. Jim, that's great advice. We're having technical difficulties with our connection today, so let me publicly thank you for your patience. I really appreciate you taking time out of your schedule to join us today. You are very generous with your time, and I appreciate it.
Thank you. Thank you, Dennis. I look forward to meeting you again. Me too. We will return after these words. This is the best of the radio program " Retirement Lifestyle Advocates". Hello, this is Dennis Tabbergen, host of the radio program " Retirement Lifestyle Advocates." For a short time, I would like to invite you to receive a copy of my book, "The New Rules of Retirement." You can get your copy by visiting requestyourbook.com.
The site is again requestyourbook.com. I invite you to get it because the book was written about 10 years ago and very accurately predicted what we see today. This book is available for a limited time before the release of my new book, Resetting the Retirement Rules. This is an update to the book "New Pension Rules".
So get your copy of The New Rules of Retirement within the next few weeks, and then the offer will disappear. All you need to do is visit requestyourbook.com. Let me know where to send the book and I will be happy to send you a free copy. This is requestyourbook.com. This is the best of the radio program " Retirement Lifestyle Advocates".
Welcome back to RLA radio. I'm your host, Dennis Tabbergen, and thank you again to my special guest, Mr. Jim Rogers, for joining us on today's program. Many of you have probably seen this news, but Cox Automotive recently released the company's third quarter sales forecast. So, Cox predicts that Hyundai will increase U.S.
sales in the third quarter by 4.4%. Cox Automotive says Hyundai will sell 511,421 vehicles. Comparing these results with Ford Motor Company's figures, the automaker's sales in the third quarter will fall by 7.7%, with Ford selling 504,172 vehicles. This means Hyundai is poised to overtake Ford in sales volumes in the third quarter of this year.
This has never happened before in the US . The top three automotive companies by sales volume in the third quarter: General Motors in first place, Toyota in second, Hyundai in third, and Ford drops to fourth place in the ranking. Honda rounds out the top five . As record fuel prices play an increasing role in car-buying decisions, one in six cars sold in the U.S.
in the third quarter will be a hybrid. It seems that Ford got the timing of its electric vehicle program a bit wrong. And what confuses me a little: if you've been listening to or watching RLA Radio for a long time or reading my books or newsletters for a long time, you know that I look at the world from the perspective of libertarian capitalism.
So when I saw this Gallup poll, I was pretty upset. Gallup recently released a poll showing that 43% of Americans now have a positive view of socialism. The previous record in Gallup polls was 39%. If we break down the survey results by age, American adults aged 18 to 34 have a better opinion of socialism than capitalism.
American adults aged 18 to 34 preferred socialism over capitalism by a margin of 57%. 50% of people in the 18-34 age group have a more positive view of socialism compared to 43% who have a better view of capitalism. When you delve into the results of this survey, they are certainly clear. Monetary policy created a K-shaped economy.
Those who have assets are doing well in these inflationary conditions. Those without assets, which are typically people aged 18-34, have been hit much harder. Salaries or incomes are not keeping up with consumer prices. So, that's understandable. However, socialism has never worked historically. As Margaret Thatcher says: sooner or later you run out of other people's money.
This is my program for this week. I hope you found something useful for yourself. See you next week. Thank you for joining .
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